My betting season got off to an inauspicious start. I went 2-3 last week, winning both bets I made against the spread but whiffing on all three of my money line upset picks. Maybe someone's sending me a message...
That being said, all three of my losses were one possession games that came down to a final (missed) opportunity by the underdog, so the week could've gone either way. Nevertheless, I'm 2-3, so it's time to step it up and pick some actual winners for Week 2. Here we go.
Pittsburgh -4 over Kansas City
Pittsburgh's offense plays better at home and Kansas City is a sieve on defense. I'm expecting a big bounce back from Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers after their embarrassing tie in Cleveland. As much as I like Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, I think this one is too tall of an order for the young QB.
San Diego -7 over Buffalo
I wish I could've gotten this down to 6.5, but it's still too good of an opportunity. The Bills are a mess in pretty much every area. Josh Allen's debut adds an interesting wrinkle, but I'm not exactly confident in a guy who couldn't beat out the worst QB I've ever seen for the starting job. Chargers win big on the road.
New England -1 over Jacksonville
This is basically a Pick'em game, so I'm picking the superior team. I'm on record as a non-believer in the Jaguars this year, and I think the Patriots' D is much improved. They'll be able to get off the field in key spots, which they couldn't do in last year's AFC Championship game. People talk about the "revenge" factor for Jacksonville, but everyone seems to have revenge on their minds against New England and it just leads to more losses. I cashed in on the Brady Bunch last week, so I'm willing to go down for doubles on them. Patriots win in a competitive game.
New York Jets -3 over Miami
Sam Darnold looked pretty good in his debut after his initial Brett Favre imitation on his first drop-back. I don't think the Jets have playoff aspirations, but I'm more impressed with them than Miami. Three points implies the teams are equal, and I don't buy that. The Jets look like they're heading in the right direction, while Miami looks like Miami always does: mediocre.
Dallas -3 over New York Giants
Yes, I'm going back to the well on the Cowboys, who looked like complete trash last week. The Giants did not look a whole lot better though, and I think the Cowboys can run on New York. If Dallas can establish the run game, then Dak Prescott will actually be able to function as an NFL player, which will be good enough to topple a still-anemic Giants offense. I might have to jump off the bandwagon if Dallas can't get it done this week, but I'm not ready to give up on them just yet.
Week 1 results: 2-3 (-1.09 units)