It's been a good last couple of weeks for me. After spending 10 days in Hawaii, I came home, went 3-1-1 with last week's winners, and got to watch the Capitals raise their first banner as Stanley Cup Champions before kicking the stuffing out of the Bruins in DC last night. Everything's coming up Milhouse, which means this weekend is likely going to suck. My goodness, this slate of games is brutal. I'm anticipating some serious disappointment, starting tonight. Let's get this over with.
Indianapolis +10 over New England
Cory thinks I'm on crazy pills, and he's probably right. I was adamant against jumping on these 10 points, but the rest of the games are so brutal that this game is one of the few with some value. The Patriots' defense is still bad, and bad defenses don't cover big spreads. In what will likely be my most regrettable bet of the season, let's get a nice backdoor job for Indy tonight.
Tennessee - 3.5 over Buffalo
This is the only bet that I really liked this week. The Bills are terrible and the Titans, while not great, are at least showing some onions under Mike Vrabel. That kind of aggression inspires confidence that the Titans are going to take it to Buffalo. A couple early touchdowns and this game will be over, especially since the Bills couldn't even muster a point against the sorry Packers defense. Tennessee wins big.
Baltimore -3 over Cleveland
I like the Browns a lot right now, especially with Baker Mayfield under center, but this Ravens team is impressive. They're strong up front and their offense is finally capable now that Flacco has some nice weapons. The Browns are on the rise, but I think the Ravens will provide some perspective with a solid win in the Dog Pound.
Pittsburgh -3 over Atlanta
In consecutive weeks, Pittsburgh and Atlanta became the first two teams in NFL history to lose home games after scoring 37+ points and not turning the ball over. We're talking about two historically awful defenses in the early goings of the 2018 season, but the big factor here is location. Roethlisberger and Ryan are notorious Jekyll and Hyde QBs when it comes to home-road performance, so I'm inclined to roll with the guy who's at home. Pittsburgh by 10.
Green Bay -1 over Detroit
The Packers are struggling a bit on offense. Aaron Rodgers is chirping at his coach, and McCarthy is chirping back. All is not well in the land of the cheeseheads. What a perfect time to get to play the Detroit Lions, who are constantly battling the Bears for biggest doormat for Green Bay. The Packers will roll in Detroit.
Week 4: 3-1-1 (+1.73 units)
Overall: 12-7-1 (+4.01 units)