I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. I know I did. After a disappointing Week 11, I bounced back nicely over the weekend and posted a solid 3-2 as we head into December. I feel very confident in this week's winners, so let's get to it.
LA Chargers +3.5 over Pittsburgh
In what figures to be the marquee game of the weekend, I'm taking the road dogs in this one. It's obvious why a 3.5 point spread has its appeal, and when you've got two powerhouse teams going head-to-head, there's a great chance the game will come down to a last-minute field goal. I like the Chargers' chances to get out of Pittsburgh with a win, but there's more value in taking the points, so that's what I'm going to do.
Houston -6 over Cleveland
This bet hurt my soul. If you've listened to me on the podcast, or seen my tweets, or have just been in my presence over the last year, you know I'm all in on Baker Mayfield. I love his personality and I think he has the skill set to be a star in Cleveland of all places. However, the Texans are rolling right now and Houston's front is capable of overwhelming any quarterback, let alone a rookie playing behind a sometimes shaky offensive line. I wouldn't mind being wrong on this one, but I like Houston to win by at least a touchdown at home.
Denver -4.5 over Cincinnati
This line is laughable. Sure, the Broncos are the road team, but come on. Cincinnati is in disarray. Their defense is historically bad. Their starting quarterback is injured and their backup is some guy I've never heard of in my life. Meanwhile, Denver is on a roll after picking up back-to-back huge wins against some of the AFC's best teams. They're going to roll over the Bengals, and I wouldn't count on Hue getting any post-game hugs this time around either.
NY Jets +7.5 over Tennessee
The Jets are garbage, but they can play some defense. Meanwhile, the Titans often struggle putting up points because of their inability to keep Marcus Mariota upright. Tennessee leaves too many points on the field for me to trust them covering a spread that exceeds a touchdown, even at home. They'll win the game, but the better value is with the Jets and the points.
Seattle -10 over San Francisco
I've always been more bullish on the Seahawks this year. They're one of maybe 10 teams in the NFL that has confidence in their quarterback for the foreseeable future. That's something that has to be considered every year, and it's paying dividends with Russell Wilson consistently playing the hero. He won't need to do that this week against a third string QB and a 49ers defense that's been devastated by injury. Seattle wins big at home.
Week 11 Results: 2-3 (-1.18 units)
Week 12 Results: 3-2 (+0.73 units)
Overall: 35-19-2 (+17.9 units)