After a forgettable set of bets last week, I decided to do a little stream-of-conscience opining over statistics yesterday, and while it may not be a hit with you readers out there, it felt pretty good to write my thoughts down. I could go on and on about statistics and improving the ways which we measure performance, but I have a job to do, and that job is to give you winners.
I'm going to level with you here. This week is rough. If I wasn't rapidly approaching degenerate status, I would've folded for Week 15. Instead, I've got five winners selected. Don't shoot the messenger if these go south.
Denver -3 over Cleveland
The Broncos let me down big-time last week after being upset by the 49ers on the road. However, a surprising loss to a bad team can create some value, because I still think Denver has a very good football team. Their defense is elite, they'er playing at home, and while I like Baker Mayfield a lot, he's a rookie quarterback playing in a tough climate. I'm wiling to lay the three points on the Broncos. Hopefully they don't burn me again.
Indianapolis -2.5 over Dallas
Andrew Luck is a good quarterback. He's not a great quarterback. I'm not going to treat him like a great quarterback until he actually does something great. That being said, he's playing a team led by Dak Prescott, who tries his best every week to lose critical games for the Cowboys. Therefore, he might not have to be great this week. With home-field advantage, I expect the Colts to win, and with only a field goal margin to beat, I'll bite the bullet and lay em.
Atlanta -9 over Arizona
I've tried to avoid betting on toilet bowl games, because who the hell wants to watch this crap, right? But with the lines being exceptionally brutal, I felt like I had to chase this one. The Falcons are bad, yes. But the Cardinals are the worst team in football. I give them next to no chance of going into Atlanta and competing. I've got the Dirty Birds rolling in this one.
Seattle -4.5 over San Francisco
The Seahawks have done well for me over the last few weeks, and they were successful covering a bigger spread against this same 49er team at home just a couple weeks ago. The venue has now shifted to Santa Clara, and the point spread moved appropriately. If 10.5 was a good bet in Seattle, it stands to reason that 4.5 is a good bet in the Bay Area. I'll go down for doubles and lay the points.
Pittsburgh +1.5 over New England
I need Stanley Hudson here, because I must have lost my natural mind. The game is in Pittsburgh, but the Patriots beat the Steelers' asses anywhere they play. Pittsburgh is also reeling after losing three straight games in embarrassing fashion. All that being said, I still feel like Pittsburgh is going to win this game. The Steelers logged home wins against New England in 2004 and in 2011, so maybe it's a seven year cycle thing. I think Pittsburgh's receivers are going to give New England's secondary fits, and while I don't think Rob Gronkowski is completely washed, I do think he's lost a step and can't be counted on to take the game over like he has in the past. The Steelers pull this one out. Maybe. Probably not, but my bet is locked in, so... I'm screwed.
Week 14 Results: 2-3 (-1.2 units)
Overall: 42-22-2 (+21.3 units)
I'm going to level with you here. This week is rough. If I wasn't rapidly approaching degenerate status, I would've folded for Week 15. Instead, I've got five winners selected. Don't shoot the messenger if these go south.
Denver -3 over Cleveland
The Broncos let me down big-time last week after being upset by the 49ers on the road. However, a surprising loss to a bad team can create some value, because I still think Denver has a very good football team. Their defense is elite, they'er playing at home, and while I like Baker Mayfield a lot, he's a rookie quarterback playing in a tough climate. I'm wiling to lay the three points on the Broncos. Hopefully they don't burn me again.
Indianapolis -2.5 over Dallas
Andrew Luck is a good quarterback. He's not a great quarterback. I'm not going to treat him like a great quarterback until he actually does something great. That being said, he's playing a team led by Dak Prescott, who tries his best every week to lose critical games for the Cowboys. Therefore, he might not have to be great this week. With home-field advantage, I expect the Colts to win, and with only a field goal margin to beat, I'll bite the bullet and lay em.
Atlanta -9 over Arizona
I've tried to avoid betting on toilet bowl games, because who the hell wants to watch this crap, right? But with the lines being exceptionally brutal, I felt like I had to chase this one. The Falcons are bad, yes. But the Cardinals are the worst team in football. I give them next to no chance of going into Atlanta and competing. I've got the Dirty Birds rolling in this one.
Seattle -4.5 over San Francisco
The Seahawks have done well for me over the last few weeks, and they were successful covering a bigger spread against this same 49er team at home just a couple weeks ago. The venue has now shifted to Santa Clara, and the point spread moved appropriately. If 10.5 was a good bet in Seattle, it stands to reason that 4.5 is a good bet in the Bay Area. I'll go down for doubles and lay the points.
Pittsburgh +1.5 over New England
I need Stanley Hudson here, because I must have lost my natural mind. The game is in Pittsburgh, but the Patriots beat the Steelers' asses anywhere they play. Pittsburgh is also reeling after losing three straight games in embarrassing fashion. All that being said, I still feel like Pittsburgh is going to win this game. The Steelers logged home wins against New England in 2004 and in 2011, so maybe it's a seven year cycle thing. I think Pittsburgh's receivers are going to give New England's secondary fits, and while I don't think Rob Gronkowski is completely washed, I do think he's lost a step and can't be counted on to take the game over like he has in the past. The Steelers pull this one out. Maybe. Probably not, but my bet is locked in, so... I'm screwed.
Week 14 Results: 2-3 (-1.2 units)
Overall: 42-22-2 (+21.3 units)