I'll be taking Week 17 off from winners so I can enjoy my holiday, but for now, we're trying to finish this regular season on a high note. Let's make some more Christmas money before we ring in 2019. With the slate of games I've got this week, I don't think we'll need a Festivus Miracle to come out on top. I'm feeling good about these winners, so let's jump in.
LA Chargers -4.5 over Baltimore
The Ravens are an intriguing team. They play great defense and have built a creative offensive scheme that suits Lamar Jackson's athleticism while mitigating his current weaknesses as a young passer. However, Baltimore has been taking advantage of some of the worst run defenses in the NFL over the past five weeks, and the Chargers are far from that. Add in the fact that the Chargers have a ton on the line and this feels like a back-to-earth game for Baltimore. I like the Chargers by a touchdown at home.
Houston +125 over Philadelphia
The spread on this game was Houston +2.5, but I saw more value in betting the money line. This is closer to a tossup game to me, so the odds give me enough juice to make this a worthwhile upset pick. The public is clearly feeling a second dose of magic for BDN, but I'm not sold. Foles struggled early in the season and the Eagles defense is still a mess in the secondary. Pulling an upset against the Rams was a shock, but we'll get to them later. Houston's defense will cause enough trouble for Philly, and nobody's stopping DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans get a road win and move a step closer to a first round bye.
Arizona +14 over LA Rams
I've preached not putting too much stock in one game, but this has been an ongoing affair for the Rams throughout the stretch run. They got smoked by New Orleans' offense, stifled by Chicago's defense, and then couldn't solve a decimated Eagles defense or a backup QB at home. The Rams haven't played a good game in over a month. There's no way I trust this team to cover a two touchdown spread, even against the lowly Cardinals. The Rams will win this game by default, but Arizona keeps it somewhat competitive in their final home game.
Chicago -4 over San Francisco
Nick Mullens continues to play well sometimes, but these Bears are the real deal. I expect their defense to continue dominating, and their offense should be able to produce enough firepower to overwhelm a depleted 49ers defense. I bet against San Francisco at home last week and it bit me, but I'm doubling down this week. Bears win this one by double digits.
New Orleans -5.5 over Pittsburgh
The Saints have a chance to lock up home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They're playing at home after three shaky performances on the road. They're playing in prime time. They're playing a Steelers team that can barely get out of their own way in home games, let alone in hostile environments like the Superdome. The Saints are the best team in football. The Steelers, meanwhile, played their Super Bowl last week, and as predicted insanely by yours truly, they actually beat New England. This feels like a letdown game for them, and I could see it getting out of hand quickly. The Saints win this one by two touchdowns.
Week 15 Results: 3-2 (+.7 units)
Overall: 45-24-2 (+22 units)
LA Chargers -4.5 over Baltimore
The Ravens are an intriguing team. They play great defense and have built a creative offensive scheme that suits Lamar Jackson's athleticism while mitigating his current weaknesses as a young passer. However, Baltimore has been taking advantage of some of the worst run defenses in the NFL over the past five weeks, and the Chargers are far from that. Add in the fact that the Chargers have a ton on the line and this feels like a back-to-earth game for Baltimore. I like the Chargers by a touchdown at home.
Houston +125 over Philadelphia
The spread on this game was Houston +2.5, but I saw more value in betting the money line. This is closer to a tossup game to me, so the odds give me enough juice to make this a worthwhile upset pick. The public is clearly feeling a second dose of magic for BDN, but I'm not sold. Foles struggled early in the season and the Eagles defense is still a mess in the secondary. Pulling an upset against the Rams was a shock, but we'll get to them later. Houston's defense will cause enough trouble for Philly, and nobody's stopping DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans get a road win and move a step closer to a first round bye.
Arizona +14 over LA Rams
I've preached not putting too much stock in one game, but this has been an ongoing affair for the Rams throughout the stretch run. They got smoked by New Orleans' offense, stifled by Chicago's defense, and then couldn't solve a decimated Eagles defense or a backup QB at home. The Rams haven't played a good game in over a month. There's no way I trust this team to cover a two touchdown spread, even against the lowly Cardinals. The Rams will win this game by default, but Arizona keeps it somewhat competitive in their final home game.
Chicago -4 over San Francisco
Nick Mullens continues to play well sometimes, but these Bears are the real deal. I expect their defense to continue dominating, and their offense should be able to produce enough firepower to overwhelm a depleted 49ers defense. I bet against San Francisco at home last week and it bit me, but I'm doubling down this week. Bears win this one by double digits.
New Orleans -5.5 over Pittsburgh
The Saints have a chance to lock up home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They're playing at home after three shaky performances on the road. They're playing in prime time. They're playing a Steelers team that can barely get out of their own way in home games, let alone in hostile environments like the Superdome. The Saints are the best team in football. The Steelers, meanwhile, played their Super Bowl last week, and as predicted insanely by yours truly, they actually beat New England. This feels like a letdown game for them, and I could see it getting out of hand quickly. The Saints win this one by two touchdowns.
Week 15 Results: 3-2 (+.7 units)
Overall: 45-24-2 (+22 units)