I'm Even Steven through eight games of this year's postseason, so hopefully I can win two out of these next three and come out ahead for the playoffs after a terrific regular year. We've got two excellent matchups to decide who will play for Super Bowl LIII, and I'm excited to see how these games play out.
NFC Championship Game:
No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (13-3) @ No. 1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
3:05 p.m. EST
Line: New Orleans -3.5
The Saints met up for an epic game in the middle of the season, with the Saints handing the Rams their first loss of the year in the Superdome. The teams seemed destined for a rematch in the conference title game, and lo and behold, here we are.
The Rams were seen as the fading team heading into this years' playoffs, with a couple of easy wins buffering a series of lackadaisical efforts where they got owned by the Bears and shocked by the Eagles at home. The teams' struggles could be tied to the struggles of Jared Goff down the stretch, as he couldn't crack Chicago's fierce defense and struggled to keep up with Eagles legend Nick Foles. To combat the young quarterback's woes, the Rams have opted to become a power running team, using Todd Gurley and freshly minted propane tank CJ Anderson to bulldoze their way through the holiday season. This strategy carried over to their divisional round game against the Cowboys, where they ran right through the typically stout Cowboys front to control the game and pick up an impressive first playoff win for Sean McVay.
The Rams weren't the only team to lose steam heading into the postseason, however. New Orleans struggled in all of their games since Thanksgiving, with a loss to Dallas starting a downward trend for the Saints' normally vaunted offense. The Saints managed to win every game they tried to and held onto the top seed in the conference, but the disappearance of Drew Brees left a lot of concern for Who Dat nation. Those worries carried into the divisional round, where the Saints spotted the Eagles 14 points before they overwhelmed the depleted Eagles for the final three quarters, finally wresting control of the game after an 11 1/2 minute touchdown drive and a fortunate interception late to seal the deal.
This isn't an easy game to pick because of the Saints' inexplicable troubles. It's hard to know if the good or bad Saints offense will show up, especially because their struggles can't be tied to any particular injuries. If the Saints bring it on offense, this figures to be a game they can win handily, but another no-show could spell trouble for them.
However, I believe the Saints have the right pieces to make the Rams' offense struggle. LA's reliance on the run game will likely hit a wall with the Saints' tremendous front seven, who has swallowed up rushing attacks all season and boast a top three run-stopping unit by DVOA this season. If the Rams can't effectively run the ball and have to rely on Jared Goff in that environment, the path to victory starts to narrow and the Saints will be in position to control the game. I believe this is the most likely outcome, and there's no way I can justify picking Jared Goff to out-duel Drew Brees in that dome.
The pick: New Orleans -3.5 over Los Angeles
AFC Championship Game:
No. 2 New England Patriots (11-5) @ No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
6:40 p.m. EST
Line: Kansas City -3
Like the first title game, this will feature another rematch of an epic midseason showdown, where the Patriots topped the Chiefs 43-40 on a last second field goal. However, this game will feature a shift in venue as the Chiefs will have a chance to avenge their first loss of the 2018 season.
The Patriots came into the playoffs with some doubters both in their local circles and on the national circuit. Those doubts were quickly shown to be misplaced, as New England hammered the Chargers from the jump. Their combination of power running and Tom Brady's precise reads made their offense the vintage juggernaut we're used to seeing, and their blitz-heavy scheme helped shut down the Chargers' high-flying offense, leading to a classic divisional round blowout in Foxboro. The Chiefs will obviously provide a bigger challenge in Arrowhead, but the Pats have shown they're ready to show they're "still here," or whatever their motivating slogan is. Either way, I'm excited to see what they bring to the table.
Meanwhile, Kansas City brings the MVP of the league and the most explosive offense in the NFL into their first conference championship appearance since 1994. The Chiefs spent the majority of their regular season relying on their offense to bail out their leaky defense, but they flipped the script last week against the suddenly hapless Indianapolis Colts. Kansas City was able to shut down Indy's run game, and playoff Andrew Luck reared his ugly head with another clunker. This sudden defensive surge helped the Chiefs paper over some sloppy special teams play and an oddly pedestrian showing by the aforementioned Mahomes, who actually finished with a negative DYAR due to some sacks and fumbling issues. Have the Chiefs turned the corner on defense, or was this merely the benefit of having a bye week and an overwhelmed opponent? That's a question KC will have to answer tomorrow night.
My head says to take the Chiefs. They were the better team all year, they're playing at home, and the Patriots were unusually poor on the road. However, I've said before that it's ill-advised to bet against the Brady-Belichick Patriots, as they are notoriously good against the spread. I have legitimate concerns about Andy Reid going head-to-head with Bill Belichick, and I'm inclined to believe last week's defensive showing by the Chiefs was not something sustainable. If the Patriots can run on the Chiefs, they'll be able to control the game and let Tom Brady operate out of the play action, which is a nightmare for any defense.
Of course, the other half of the equation is how New England stops Mahomes. I actually think New England has the components to limit their attack. The Patriots' biggest struggles over the past few years have been defending running backs in the passing game, with Kareem Hunt notably gashing them in both matchups over the past two seasons. But, we know Hunt isn't present. He's playing in New Orleans (I kid, Stephen A.). Damien Williams has done a nice job filling in, but he's not nearly the dynamic playmaker that Hunt was for the Chiefs, so that's one less weapon the Patriots will have to account for tonight. The Chiefs still have Tyreek Hill, but the Patriots were the best team in the NFL by a country mile at defending the deep pass, so that tandem will have a hard time making game breaking plays against this defense. I worry that the Chiefs will be forced to play more of New England's game of methodical drives and ball control, which doesn't suit a gunslinger like Mahomes, hon. It was a tough call, but I'm taking the dogs in this one.
The Pick: New England +3 over Kansas City
Postseason Record: 4-4
NFC Championship Game:
No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (13-3) @ No. 1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
3:05 p.m. EST
Line: New Orleans -3.5
The Saints met up for an epic game in the middle of the season, with the Saints handing the Rams their first loss of the year in the Superdome. The teams seemed destined for a rematch in the conference title game, and lo and behold, here we are.
The Rams were seen as the fading team heading into this years' playoffs, with a couple of easy wins buffering a series of lackadaisical efforts where they got owned by the Bears and shocked by the Eagles at home. The teams' struggles could be tied to the struggles of Jared Goff down the stretch, as he couldn't crack Chicago's fierce defense and struggled to keep up with Eagles legend Nick Foles. To combat the young quarterback's woes, the Rams have opted to become a power running team, using Todd Gurley and freshly minted propane tank CJ Anderson to bulldoze their way through the holiday season. This strategy carried over to their divisional round game against the Cowboys, where they ran right through the typically stout Cowboys front to control the game and pick up an impressive first playoff win for Sean McVay.
The Rams weren't the only team to lose steam heading into the postseason, however. New Orleans struggled in all of their games since Thanksgiving, with a loss to Dallas starting a downward trend for the Saints' normally vaunted offense. The Saints managed to win every game they tried to and held onto the top seed in the conference, but the disappearance of Drew Brees left a lot of concern for Who Dat nation. Those worries carried into the divisional round, where the Saints spotted the Eagles 14 points before they overwhelmed the depleted Eagles for the final three quarters, finally wresting control of the game after an 11 1/2 minute touchdown drive and a fortunate interception late to seal the deal.
This isn't an easy game to pick because of the Saints' inexplicable troubles. It's hard to know if the good or bad Saints offense will show up, especially because their struggles can't be tied to any particular injuries. If the Saints bring it on offense, this figures to be a game they can win handily, but another no-show could spell trouble for them.
However, I believe the Saints have the right pieces to make the Rams' offense struggle. LA's reliance on the run game will likely hit a wall with the Saints' tremendous front seven, who has swallowed up rushing attacks all season and boast a top three run-stopping unit by DVOA this season. If the Rams can't effectively run the ball and have to rely on Jared Goff in that environment, the path to victory starts to narrow and the Saints will be in position to control the game. I believe this is the most likely outcome, and there's no way I can justify picking Jared Goff to out-duel Drew Brees in that dome.
The pick: New Orleans -3.5 over Los Angeles
AFC Championship Game:
No. 2 New England Patriots (11-5) @ No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
6:40 p.m. EST
Line: Kansas City -3
Like the first title game, this will feature another rematch of an epic midseason showdown, where the Patriots topped the Chiefs 43-40 on a last second field goal. However, this game will feature a shift in venue as the Chiefs will have a chance to avenge their first loss of the 2018 season.
The Patriots came into the playoffs with some doubters both in their local circles and on the national circuit. Those doubts were quickly shown to be misplaced, as New England hammered the Chargers from the jump. Their combination of power running and Tom Brady's precise reads made their offense the vintage juggernaut we're used to seeing, and their blitz-heavy scheme helped shut down the Chargers' high-flying offense, leading to a classic divisional round blowout in Foxboro. The Chiefs will obviously provide a bigger challenge in Arrowhead, but the Pats have shown they're ready to show they're "still here," or whatever their motivating slogan is. Either way, I'm excited to see what they bring to the table.
Meanwhile, Kansas City brings the MVP of the league and the most explosive offense in the NFL into their first conference championship appearance since 1994. The Chiefs spent the majority of their regular season relying on their offense to bail out their leaky defense, but they flipped the script last week against the suddenly hapless Indianapolis Colts. Kansas City was able to shut down Indy's run game, and playoff Andrew Luck reared his ugly head with another clunker. This sudden defensive surge helped the Chiefs paper over some sloppy special teams play and an oddly pedestrian showing by the aforementioned Mahomes, who actually finished with a negative DYAR due to some sacks and fumbling issues. Have the Chiefs turned the corner on defense, or was this merely the benefit of having a bye week and an overwhelmed opponent? That's a question KC will have to answer tomorrow night.
My head says to take the Chiefs. They were the better team all year, they're playing at home, and the Patriots were unusually poor on the road. However, I've said before that it's ill-advised to bet against the Brady-Belichick Patriots, as they are notoriously good against the spread. I have legitimate concerns about Andy Reid going head-to-head with Bill Belichick, and I'm inclined to believe last week's defensive showing by the Chiefs was not something sustainable. If the Patriots can run on the Chiefs, they'll be able to control the game and let Tom Brady operate out of the play action, which is a nightmare for any defense.
Of course, the other half of the equation is how New England stops Mahomes. I actually think New England has the components to limit their attack. The Patriots' biggest struggles over the past few years have been defending running backs in the passing game, with Kareem Hunt notably gashing them in both matchups over the past two seasons. But, we know Hunt isn't present. He's playing in New Orleans (I kid, Stephen A.). Damien Williams has done a nice job filling in, but he's not nearly the dynamic playmaker that Hunt was for the Chiefs, so that's one less weapon the Patriots will have to account for tonight. The Chiefs still have Tyreek Hill, but the Patriots were the best team in the NFL by a country mile at defending the deep pass, so that tandem will have a hard time making game breaking plays against this defense. I worry that the Chiefs will be forced to play more of New England's game of methodical drives and ball control, which doesn't suit a gunslinger like Mahomes, hon. It was a tough call, but I'm taking the dogs in this one.
The Pick: New England +3 over Kansas City
Postseason Record: 4-4