Well, that was brutal. A 1-3 wildcard weekend has me feeling sheepish heading into the divisional round. We'll leave last week behind and get to the best weekend in football.
AFC Divisional Round:
No. 6 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) @ No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
4:35 p.m. EST on NBC
Line: Kansas City - 6
The Colts proved themselves worthy of the playoff stage by rolling over the Texans, and they figure to be a game opponent for the AFC's top seed. Indy is playing well on both sides of the ball, with a resurgent Andrew Luck leading the charge while getting timely defense from a surprisingly strong front seven. The Colts completely shut down the Texans' hapless offense until garbage time, allowing them to cruise to victory despite their offense sputtering in the second half. They'll have an even bigger challenge trying to limit the high flying Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off an all-time great offensive season.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, come into this game after a bye and as the top seed. We've discussed their offense, but their defense, specifically against the run, could be an issue. The Chiefs barely achieved the top seed despite scoring the third most points in NFL history, and they struggled to beat elite teams, going 2-4 against playoff teams. One of those wins came in the first week, and the other required a miracle at home to beat Baltimore, so there are some concerns on whether the Chiefs can bring the goods against the best of the best.
There are reasons to like the Colts in this one. They're hot. They're playing good defense. They're running the ball well. Also, we know Kansas City's postseason history. They have not won a home playoff game since 1994 when Joe Montana was their quarterback. However, there are two big reasons to take the Chiefs. For one, the forecast calls for snow. Dome teams in the elements are virtually always a disaster. Secondly, and more importantly, the Chiefs have the MVP. Patrick Mahomes may not be Joe Montana (yet), but he's most electric playmaker in the league. I'm going to ride with him.
The Pick: Kansas City -6 over Indianapolis
NFC Divisional Round:
No. 4 Dallas Cowboys (10-6) vs. No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (13-3)
8:15 p.m. EST on FOX
Line: Los Angeles -7
The Cowboys got a nice playoff win to boost the profile of Jason Garrett, who shockingly out-coached Pete Carroll last week in Dallas. The Cowboys are playing well heading into the second round, with Dak Prescott doing enough to lift this offense in the big moments while the defense continuously makes plays. Ezekiel Elliot is, as usual, the catalyst of this Cowboys team, and he could be the key to a potential Dallas upset.
The Rams come into this game after a week off, but they weren't exactly lighting the world on fire before they got two walkovers to end the season. The Rams can take responsibility for the Eagles' presence in the tournament after they laid a massive egg against them in the Coliseum, and they also got handled by the Bears in Chicago. Overall, the Rams have had a great year, and they've logged some impressive wins, but the struggles of Jared Goff have been shocking. He's going to have to regain his form from the first half of the season if this loaded team is going to make it to Atlanta.
A touchdown spread is a lot to lay for the Rams, especially given that their "home field advantage" will likely be non-existent against Dallas. Factor in a tough Cowboys defense against a struggling young QB and the touchdown spread looks even more unappealing. However, the Cowboys aren't a good football team. A close win over Seattle where Pete Carroll forgot who his best player was doesn't change that. I expect the Cowboys offense to be neutralized, and the return of Todd Gurley will be enough to power the Rams to enough offense to push this margin beyond one score.
The Pick: Los Angeles -7 over Dallas
Check back tomorrow for Sunday's picks, and enjoy your Saturday watching football!
Playoff Record ATS: 1-3