Happy postseason, everyone! I'll be betting on all eleven playoff games over the next month. Since these games matter more, I'll be more extensive with my write-ups. I'll be splitting up my posts for each day, so this story will only include Saturday's games. I will post Sunday's winners tomorrow. Let's get to it.
AFC Wildcard Game:
No. 6 Indianapolis Colts @ No. 3 Houston Texans
4:35 p.m. EST
Line: Houston -1.5
This will be the third meeting between these two AFC South rivals, with the first two games ending in a split. Andrew Luck has had a comeback season for the ages, while DeShaun Watson has recovered very nicely from his ACL injury, creating an excellent quarterback matchup, hopefully for years to come in what has been a division of sadness. The Texans also bring an elite defense, but the Colts' D is surging and is an above average unit in its own right.
Houston feels like they've been punching above their weight class a bit this season. They had a favorable schedule, playing only six games against opponents with non-negative DVOAs. Their offensive has struggled keeping Watson upright, and his tendency to hold the ball leads to additional sacks which kill drives. Houston's offense is a bit of an Achilles heel. We'll see if it can hold up to playoff pressure.
Indianapolis also had a very friendly schedule, but their team feels more balanced to me. While their defense isn't as strong as Houston's, their offense is definitely a plus unit and is superior to Houston's. Indy has the higher DVOA than Houston, but more importantly, they've played way better down the stretch than the Texans. Home-field advantage only counts for so much, and with the Colts on a roll while the Texans are plateauing, I'm taking the road dog and the points.
The Pick: Indianapolis +1.5 over Houston
NFC Wildcard Game:
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks @ No. 4 Dallas Cowboys
4:35 p.m. EST
Line: Dallas -1.5
Dallas and Seattle did not meet this year, but they're very similar teams. Both rely heavily on their rushing attack and defense. Interestingly, the team with the superior quarterback is also the team more committed to its running game. Seattle has a better overall offense, and their ball control style helps cover for a defense that is far from its glory days. Meanwhile, Dallas is more willing to throw the ball despite a mediocre passing attack, but their upstart defense helps carry the day for Big D.
For all the grief we give him, and much of it is deserved, Dak is an impressive fourth quarter QB. He has a great track record of handling fourth quarter comeback and game winning drive opportunities in his young career, so he has shown an impressive ability to rise to the occasion. Dak may be far from an elite quarterback, but don't expect him to wilt under the bright lights in the postseason.
Dak might be a good fourth quarter performer, but Russell Wilson is the best in the league in the clutch. This is the guy that throws 40 yard TDs on 4th and 3 passes into tight windows. Wilson is a monster playmaker who can wreck even the most compelling defensive game plans. He also has a ridiculous connection with Tyler Lockett. These dudes draw up plays like they're in the backyard and yet they hit on big play after big play. I can't wait to see how Lockett impacts the game on the postseason stage.
Coming into the weekend, neither team was looking great. The Cowboys laid an egg in Indianapolis, while Seattle had struggles beating a sorry Cardinals team just a couple weeks after being upset by San Francisco. There won't be any considerations for the "hot team" for this game because neither team is ablaze at the moment. That said, Seattle has the better quarterback, the better coach, the better team, and the better track record against high quality opponents. I'll take them to pull the road "upset."
The Pick: Seattle +1.5 over Dallas
Check back tomorrow for Sunday's winners, and enjoy the games!
AFC Wildcard Game:
No. 6 Indianapolis Colts @ No. 3 Houston Texans
4:35 p.m. EST
Line: Houston -1.5
This will be the third meeting between these two AFC South rivals, with the first two games ending in a split. Andrew Luck has had a comeback season for the ages, while DeShaun Watson has recovered very nicely from his ACL injury, creating an excellent quarterback matchup, hopefully for years to come in what has been a division of sadness. The Texans also bring an elite defense, but the Colts' D is surging and is an above average unit in its own right.
Houston feels like they've been punching above their weight class a bit this season. They had a favorable schedule, playing only six games against opponents with non-negative DVOAs. Their offensive has struggled keeping Watson upright, and his tendency to hold the ball leads to additional sacks which kill drives. Houston's offense is a bit of an Achilles heel. We'll see if it can hold up to playoff pressure.
Indianapolis also had a very friendly schedule, but their team feels more balanced to me. While their defense isn't as strong as Houston's, their offense is definitely a plus unit and is superior to Houston's. Indy has the higher DVOA than Houston, but more importantly, they've played way better down the stretch than the Texans. Home-field advantage only counts for so much, and with the Colts on a roll while the Texans are plateauing, I'm taking the road dog and the points.
The Pick: Indianapolis +1.5 over Houston
NFC Wildcard Game:
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks @ No. 4 Dallas Cowboys
4:35 p.m. EST
Line: Dallas -1.5
Dallas and Seattle did not meet this year, but they're very similar teams. Both rely heavily on their rushing attack and defense. Interestingly, the team with the superior quarterback is also the team more committed to its running game. Seattle has a better overall offense, and their ball control style helps cover for a defense that is far from its glory days. Meanwhile, Dallas is more willing to throw the ball despite a mediocre passing attack, but their upstart defense helps carry the day for Big D.
For all the grief we give him, and much of it is deserved, Dak is an impressive fourth quarter QB. He has a great track record of handling fourth quarter comeback and game winning drive opportunities in his young career, so he has shown an impressive ability to rise to the occasion. Dak may be far from an elite quarterback, but don't expect him to wilt under the bright lights in the postseason.
Dak might be a good fourth quarter performer, but Russell Wilson is the best in the league in the clutch. This is the guy that throws 40 yard TDs on 4th and 3 passes into tight windows. Wilson is a monster playmaker who can wreck even the most compelling defensive game plans. He also has a ridiculous connection with Tyler Lockett. These dudes draw up plays like they're in the backyard and yet they hit on big play after big play. I can't wait to see how Lockett impacts the game on the postseason stage.
Coming into the weekend, neither team was looking great. The Cowboys laid an egg in Indianapolis, while Seattle had struggles beating a sorry Cardinals team just a couple weeks after being upset by San Francisco. There won't be any considerations for the "hot team" for this game because neither team is ablaze at the moment. That said, Seattle has the better quarterback, the better coach, the better team, and the better track record against high quality opponents. I'll take them to pull the road "upset."
The Pick: Seattle +1.5 over Dallas
Check back tomorrow for Sunday's winners, and enjoy the games!