A modicum of redemption on Saturday puts me at 3-3 for this postseason. Hopefully the good times can continue today, with two tough ones coming down the pipe. Let's go!
AFC Divisional Round:
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ No.2 New England Patriots (11-5)
1:10 EST on CBS
Line: New England -4.5
The Chargers are coming off an impressive win over Baltimore, boosting an already impressive road profile as they face their stiffest test yet heading to frigid Foxboro. Warm weather teams are perceived as being ill-prepared to handle sub-freezing conditions, but the Chargers have shown exceptional resilience playing some of the tougher east coast teams late in the season. Couple that toughness with their impressive talent and the Chargers absolutely have an appeal as an underdog pick this week, despite Philip Rivers' 0-7 record against Tom Brady since the two first met head-to-head in 2006.
While the Chargers are an impressive team, the Patriots are perceived as the most vulnerable that they've been since 2009. Brady is 41. Gronk and Edelman look old. The defense is mediocre. However, the Patriots are 4-0 against playoff teams this season and had an 8-0 record at home. The Patriots go into just about every game with crucial advantages at quarterback and head coach, and that edge ensures that this team can never be overlooked.
While the Chargers have the more talented roster, it's hard to bet against New England this week. Bettors have lost a lot of money betting against New England, and I don't intend to be a victim of their wrath. The Patriots are in their comfort zone playing at home and coming off a bye, and I still trust Tom Brady to make the big plays in a postseason environment, regardless of how "old" he is.
The Pick: New England -4.5 over Los Angeles
NFC Divisional Round:
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ No. 1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
4:40 p.m. EST on FOX
Line: New Orleans -8
The Eagles double-doinked their way to the divisional round after Cody Parkey's ill-fated kick rang off the left upright and the crossbar, sealing Chicago's fate and continuing Nick Foles' magic carpet ride as back-up quarterback extraordinaire. The Eagles mustered enough offense against an elite defense, and their own defense put the clamps on the Bears' limited attack. Now we'll see if they can compete against the Saints, who rolled the Eagles 48-7 in the Superdome with Carson Wentz under center.
New Orleans looked like an unstoppable unit after man-handling the Eagles in that mid-November game, but they've pulled back a bit to finish the season. After a somewhat sloppy win over Atlanta on Thanksgiving, the Saints got shut down by the Cowboys and had to battle for key wins over Pittsburgh and Carolina late in the season. While their offense faded, their defense rose to the occasion and helped seal up the NFC's top seed in Week 16, allowing the Saints to get an extra week of rest as they look to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2010.
I'm not expecting a rehash of what we saw in November. The Saints aren't blowing teams out at that clip and the Eagles put up a performance so terrible that it would be virtually impossible to repeat it. However, the Saints are the vastly superior team. They have a better quarterback, better running backs, the best wide receiver on either team, a better run defense, and more reliable corners. They're also playing at home. As I said on our podcast this week, it feels like the Saints would have to play a poor game for the Eagles to realistically have a shot in this one. I don't think that's going to happen, so I'm much more inclined to trust the Saints to win this game by double digits than to let the Eagles hang around. In a world where underdogs are dominating, I'm going all chalk for this divisional round.
The Pick: New Orleans -8 over Philadelphia
Postseason record: 3-3
AFC Divisional Round:
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ No.2 New England Patriots (11-5)
1:10 EST on CBS
Line: New England -4.5
The Chargers are coming off an impressive win over Baltimore, boosting an already impressive road profile as they face their stiffest test yet heading to frigid Foxboro. Warm weather teams are perceived as being ill-prepared to handle sub-freezing conditions, but the Chargers have shown exceptional resilience playing some of the tougher east coast teams late in the season. Couple that toughness with their impressive talent and the Chargers absolutely have an appeal as an underdog pick this week, despite Philip Rivers' 0-7 record against Tom Brady since the two first met head-to-head in 2006.
While the Chargers are an impressive team, the Patriots are perceived as the most vulnerable that they've been since 2009. Brady is 41. Gronk and Edelman look old. The defense is mediocre. However, the Patriots are 4-0 against playoff teams this season and had an 8-0 record at home. The Patriots go into just about every game with crucial advantages at quarterback and head coach, and that edge ensures that this team can never be overlooked.
While the Chargers have the more talented roster, it's hard to bet against New England this week. Bettors have lost a lot of money betting against New England, and I don't intend to be a victim of their wrath. The Patriots are in their comfort zone playing at home and coming off a bye, and I still trust Tom Brady to make the big plays in a postseason environment, regardless of how "old" he is.
The Pick: New England -4.5 over Los Angeles
NFC Divisional Round:
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ No. 1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
4:40 p.m. EST on FOX
Line: New Orleans -8
The Eagles double-doinked their way to the divisional round after Cody Parkey's ill-fated kick rang off the left upright and the crossbar, sealing Chicago's fate and continuing Nick Foles' magic carpet ride as back-up quarterback extraordinaire. The Eagles mustered enough offense against an elite defense, and their own defense put the clamps on the Bears' limited attack. Now we'll see if they can compete against the Saints, who rolled the Eagles 48-7 in the Superdome with Carson Wentz under center.
New Orleans looked like an unstoppable unit after man-handling the Eagles in that mid-November game, but they've pulled back a bit to finish the season. After a somewhat sloppy win over Atlanta on Thanksgiving, the Saints got shut down by the Cowboys and had to battle for key wins over Pittsburgh and Carolina late in the season. While their offense faded, their defense rose to the occasion and helped seal up the NFC's top seed in Week 16, allowing the Saints to get an extra week of rest as they look to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2010.
I'm not expecting a rehash of what we saw in November. The Saints aren't blowing teams out at that clip and the Eagles put up a performance so terrible that it would be virtually impossible to repeat it. However, the Saints are the vastly superior team. They have a better quarterback, better running backs, the best wide receiver on either team, a better run defense, and more reliable corners. They're also playing at home. As I said on our podcast this week, it feels like the Saints would have to play a poor game for the Eagles to realistically have a shot in this one. I don't think that's going to happen, so I'm much more inclined to trust the Saints to win this game by double digits than to let the Eagles hang around. In a world where underdogs are dominating, I'm going all chalk for this divisional round.
The Pick: New Orleans -8 over Philadelphia
Postseason record: 3-3