Ho-hum. A classic 1-1 start to the postseason. After crushing it for 16 weeks of regular season football, the playoffs present new challenges. Mainly, I'm compelled to pick every game and not just the lines I like. Saturday's lines were unfavorable, but I have more confidence in Sunday's slate. Let's take a look at our two remaining wildcard games.
AFC Wildcard Game:
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
1:05 p.m. EST
Line: Baltimore -3
We saw these two teams meet just two weeks ago on the Saturday Night before Christmas. I bet on the Chargers to cover a 4.5 point spread at home and they got housed by two touchdowns, so my instinct is to reverse course and pick the Ravens to take care of business again, especially now that the venue has shifted to Baltimore.
The Chargers have had a fairly straightforward season, which is likely a welcome relief for all five of their fans that still exist. L.A. came into the season with high expectations, and despite a monkey wrench being thrown into their plans in the form of Patrick Mahomes (hon), Philip Rivers and the powder blue boys held steady and rode their excellent talent to a robust 12-4 record. This team felt different all year, but couldn't quite catch the breaks they needed to earn a bye.
Meanwhile, Baltimore was the polar opposite, with a rollercoaster season for the ages. John Harbaugh came into the year on the hot seat and Joe Flacco was feeling the pressure of Lamar Jackson's presence. So, Flacco started the season looking as good as he has in four seasons and the Ravens started off ablaze at 4-1. However, Joe regressed and the defense had a three-week nadir that cost them home games against Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Those two losses sandwiched a downright embarrassing smackdown in Carolina. The Ravens headed into the bye at 4-5 with a banged up quarterback and a coach who reportedly had one foot out the door.
Enter Lamar Jackson. The Ravens made a bold move to trade up for the former Heisman winner last spring, and Jackson figured to be the quarterback of the future in Baltimore. The future arrived earlier than expected when Joe Flacco sustained a hip injury that put him out for extended time, so the Ravens were forced to turn to their raw but talented rookie to finish out their season. The Ravens seemed to use the change as a spark, and the resurgent team managed to win six of their final seven to snatch a playoff spot.
It seems we have another case of a good team playing a potentially hot team. I believe the Chargers have the superior overall roster. Their offense and defense are both great, they have elite depth, and their special teams have greatly improved with the replacement of Caleb Sturgis. That said, the Chargers have faded a bit down the stretch, including their no-show against Baltimore and an ugly effort against a depleted Bengals team in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Ravens are unbalanced, with a struggling offense that actually got worse by DVOA when Jackson took the reins. The key to the Ravens' late season success was the resurgence of their defense, which put up dominant efforts on a weekly basis. Baltimore will need another stalwart effort from that unit to prevail against L.A. again.
When it comes down to it, I think Baltimore's track record is good enough to justify picking them as a home favorite. They're the hot team, but more importantly, they've proven over 16 games that they belong. They're the better team heading into this week, so I'll roll with them to cover and head to Foxboro for the divisional round.
The Pick: Baltimore -3 over Los Angeles
NFC Wildcard Game:
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4:40 p.m. EST
Line: Chicago -6
This is yet another game which features a steady squad versus a rollercoaster team. The Bears showed impressive resilience when they shook off a gut-wrenching loss to the Packers in Week 1 and started an impressive run to a shocking 12-4 record. The team shook off tough losses and injury to their starting quarterback, never wavering atop the NFC North and rolling into the postseason as the hot pick to potentially upset the Saints.
Philadelphia, however, did not have such luck. After an emotional Super Bowl victory, the Eagles came into 2018 on crutches, dealing with injuries to Alshon Jeffrey and still awaiting Carson Wentz's return from his ACL tear last December. The defense was decimated with additional injuries and looked dead in the water after falling to 6-7 in a heartbreaker against the Cowboys. To add injury to insult, Carson Wentz ended up with a broken back and was likely to miss the season. The Eagles needed their hero, Nick Foles, to come in and run the table against the Rams, Texans, and Redskins. So of course, Foles delivered the goods and got the Eagles into the postseason. I think everyone has feelings of deja vu.
With all that being said, I still think Philly is fatally flawed. Their defense is a sieve and Nick Foles' magic likely won't be enough against the best defense in the league. Out of all the games in this weekend's slate, this is the only one that feels like a true mismatch. Even with the 6 point spread to cover, I like the Bears' chances send the defending Super Bowl champions packing in impressive fashion.
The Pick: Chicago -6 over Philadelphia
Postseason Record: 1-1
AFC Wildcard Game:
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) @ No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
1:05 p.m. EST
Line: Baltimore -3
We saw these two teams meet just two weeks ago on the Saturday Night before Christmas. I bet on the Chargers to cover a 4.5 point spread at home and they got housed by two touchdowns, so my instinct is to reverse course and pick the Ravens to take care of business again, especially now that the venue has shifted to Baltimore.
The Chargers have had a fairly straightforward season, which is likely a welcome relief for all five of their fans that still exist. L.A. came into the season with high expectations, and despite a monkey wrench being thrown into their plans in the form of Patrick Mahomes (hon), Philip Rivers and the powder blue boys held steady and rode their excellent talent to a robust 12-4 record. This team felt different all year, but couldn't quite catch the breaks they needed to earn a bye.
Meanwhile, Baltimore was the polar opposite, with a rollercoaster season for the ages. John Harbaugh came into the year on the hot seat and Joe Flacco was feeling the pressure of Lamar Jackson's presence. So, Flacco started the season looking as good as he has in four seasons and the Ravens started off ablaze at 4-1. However, Joe regressed and the defense had a three-week nadir that cost them home games against Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Those two losses sandwiched a downright embarrassing smackdown in Carolina. The Ravens headed into the bye at 4-5 with a banged up quarterback and a coach who reportedly had one foot out the door.
Enter Lamar Jackson. The Ravens made a bold move to trade up for the former Heisman winner last spring, and Jackson figured to be the quarterback of the future in Baltimore. The future arrived earlier than expected when Joe Flacco sustained a hip injury that put him out for extended time, so the Ravens were forced to turn to their raw but talented rookie to finish out their season. The Ravens seemed to use the change as a spark, and the resurgent team managed to win six of their final seven to snatch a playoff spot.
It seems we have another case of a good team playing a potentially hot team. I believe the Chargers have the superior overall roster. Their offense and defense are both great, they have elite depth, and their special teams have greatly improved with the replacement of Caleb Sturgis. That said, the Chargers have faded a bit down the stretch, including their no-show against Baltimore and an ugly effort against a depleted Bengals team in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Ravens are unbalanced, with a struggling offense that actually got worse by DVOA when Jackson took the reins. The key to the Ravens' late season success was the resurgence of their defense, which put up dominant efforts on a weekly basis. Baltimore will need another stalwart effort from that unit to prevail against L.A. again.
When it comes down to it, I think Baltimore's track record is good enough to justify picking them as a home favorite. They're the hot team, but more importantly, they've proven over 16 games that they belong. They're the better team heading into this week, so I'll roll with them to cover and head to Foxboro for the divisional round.
The Pick: Baltimore -3 over Los Angeles
NFC Wildcard Game:
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) @ No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4:40 p.m. EST
Line: Chicago -6
This is yet another game which features a steady squad versus a rollercoaster team. The Bears showed impressive resilience when they shook off a gut-wrenching loss to the Packers in Week 1 and started an impressive run to a shocking 12-4 record. The team shook off tough losses and injury to their starting quarterback, never wavering atop the NFC North and rolling into the postseason as the hot pick to potentially upset the Saints.
Philadelphia, however, did not have such luck. After an emotional Super Bowl victory, the Eagles came into 2018 on crutches, dealing with injuries to Alshon Jeffrey and still awaiting Carson Wentz's return from his ACL tear last December. The defense was decimated with additional injuries and looked dead in the water after falling to 6-7 in a heartbreaker against the Cowboys. To add injury to insult, Carson Wentz ended up with a broken back and was likely to miss the season. The Eagles needed their hero, Nick Foles, to come in and run the table against the Rams, Texans, and Redskins. So of course, Foles delivered the goods and got the Eagles into the postseason. I think everyone has feelings of deja vu.
With all that being said, I still think Philly is fatally flawed. Their defense is a sieve and Nick Foles' magic likely won't be enough against the best defense in the league. Out of all the games in this weekend's slate, this is the only one that feels like a true mismatch. Even with the 6 point spread to cover, I like the Bears' chances send the defending Super Bowl champions packing in impressive fashion.
The Pick: Chicago -6 over Philadelphia
Postseason Record: 1-1