Week 2 was one of great vindication. Cory accused me of being stoned when I picked New England to cover their monstrous 18.5 point spread last week, and lo and behold, they did. Twice. Sorry, Puff. Leave the winners to me.
Another 3-2 week has me feeling optimistic, but we've got a long way to go. Here's what I've got for Week 3. As Chris "Fredo" Cuomo would say, let's get after it!
NY Jets @ New England
Line: New England -23
After a curb-stomping of the pathetic Dolphins, the Patriots return home to play another joke of a football outfit in the Jersey/B Jets. To make matters worse, the Jets are working on their third quarterback after injuries/illness have sidelined the first two guys. The Jets have next to no chance to win this game, but do I expect them to lose by three touchdowns? As bad as the Jets are, they aren't Miami. 23 is far too large of a number for this game, so I'm snatching the points and will be holding on for dear life.
The Pick: Jets +23
Miami @ Dallas
Line: Dallas - 21.5
I get it. The Cowboys have looked quite impressive on offense through two weeks, and the Dolphins are the Dolphins. That being said, the Cowboys aren't the Patriots. I don't think I can count on Dallas to keep Miami out of the end zone all game, which makes a spread of more than three touchdowns worth taking, even when backing Miami.
The Pick: Dolphins +21.5
Houston @ LA Chargers
Line: LA Chargers -3
The Chargers are laying the standard 3 points as the home team, but frankly, they're better than Houston. The Texans have proven that they cannot keep Watson upright, and that doesn't bode well against a fearsome pass rush. Houston has been as average as it gets, losing a squeaker to a good team and winning a squeaker against a bad team. They haven't looked impressive for their last seven weeks of football dating back to last year. Call me a skeptic. I'm rolling with the Bolts.
The Pick: Chargers -3
Atlanta @ Indianapolis
Line: Indianapolis -2
The Colts are laying a couple at home against a pretty average Falcons team. The spread here implies that the Falcons are better than Indy, but I'm not sure I buy that. This feels like an even match-up to me. The Colts have some spunk. I'm digging them to cover this small line.
The Pick: Colts -2
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Line: Tennessee -1.5
Conventional wisdom suggests taking the dog at home, especially in a divisional game on a Thursday night. Conventional wisdom is also how a sportsbook takes all your money. The Titans aren't a great team, but they're a hell of a lot better than dysfunctional, candy-ass Jacksonville. I'll lay the points and take the road team tonight.
The Pick: Titans -1.5
Week 2: 3-2 (+.73 Units)
Season: 6-4 (+1.45 Units)