After all the anticipation, we have already reached the quarter mark of the 100th NFL Season. We have already had some dramatic games (e.g., Lions vs Chiefs Week 4), as well as some surprises (e.g, Colts vs Chiefs Week 5).
At this point, while there are still 11-12 games to go, different teams have already formed different groupings: the teams looking to January, the teams who are still in with a chance, and the teams who can’t wait for the draft.
As an unqualified, biased Ravens supporter, and an ignorant teenager, I am in the perfect position to make my predictions for each division based on what I’ve seen so far and what I expect for each team. Happy reading and if you don’t agree with me, you can write your own column and it’ll probably be more accurate than mine.
AFC
AFC North:
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Before getting to the Ravens, I’ll go through the faults that will prove fatal to the other teams’ chances of knocking the Ravens off their AFC North perch in 2019.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense has been decimated through player departure and injury with Ben Roethlisberger gone for the season and the remaining members of the Killer B’s no longer with the squad. Donte Moncrief and Eli Rogers have both failed to be the supporting player to JuJu Smith-Schuster, meaning defenses can take JuJu out of the equation and stack the box to keep James Conner in check.
The Browns began to resemble the squad we all expected them to be with their win over Baltimore, but their absolutely crushing defeat at the hands of the 49ers reminded the football world there’s still plenty of work to be done. The Browns’s O-line is ranked 25th as of Week 4, according to analyst Cynthia Freelund, and their 41 penalties are second most in the NFL. Baker Mayfield has thrown well on quick passes (74.1% completion rate when throwing less than 2.5 seconds after the snap) but has struggled on throws that take longer (48.8% completion rate). This means that the offense’s creativity and play calling is key to offensive success, and Freddy Kitchens is not the play caller to do that.
As for the Ravens, things can only get better from here. They sit atop the AFC North at 3-2 and only play five games the rest of the season against teams with winning records (Seahawks, Patriots, Rams, 49ers, and Bills). Their Week 5 overtime victory in Steel City demonstrated the grit and determination that separates the great teams from the good teams. I am not going to ditch the Lamar Jackson bandwagon after two average games in which he still performed reasonably well. He still drives the Ravens offense and has proven he has the potential to make the Ravens the dark horse team in the AFC.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Houston Texans
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
I would like to point out that the AFC South is by far the most open division in the NFL. All four teams were 2-2 entering Week 5, with the Texans on top thanks to their victory over the Jaguars (who beat the Titans). My predictions could be completely flipped and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest. Due to the competition being so fierce and the teams so even, I went with the team that is most built for long term success due to their overall depth (especially in the trenches), and that team is the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts’ upset of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead only supports my argument.
The Texans have shown promise by beating the Chargers in San Diego, as well as their emphatic victory over the Atlanta Falcons, but every team in the division has shown similar progress. The Texans are a top-heavy team, and their overall depth concerns me in the long run.
The Titans continue to be the Titans in that they showed displays of dominance in wins over the Browns and Falcons while also suffering horrible defeats that make you wonder how they beat the Browns so thoroughly. Which Marcus Mariota will we see? After lighting up the Falcons in Atlanta he struggled mightily against the Bills’ defense. His inconsistency along with the whole team keeps me from buying into the Titans.
As for the Jaguars, Minshew Mania will be tested again against strong defensive units in the coming weeks (Saints, Texans, Titans, Colts, Bucs). Minshew performed quite well against the top ranked Panther secondary, but the defense, the backbone of this team, let him down. I like this Jags outfit in the future, but not this season.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins
After one division that was extremely difficult to predict, I reach the safe haven of the AFC East where the Patriots are Kings of the Universe.
There’s no visible weakness in this squad at the moment, as they marched into D.C. and destroyed a hapless Redskins squad 33-7. The Pats might very well remain undefeated going into Week 14, when they play the Chiefs in an AFC Championship rematch.
Meanwhile, the Bills have impressed and have stayed close to the Patriots. They are a well-coached outfit that will be pushing for the playoffs, but not ahead of New England. Their victory against fellow playoff contender Tennessee puts them at 4-1 and looking great.
The Jets have most of the pieces, and I see them being a contender...next season. The Dolphins are in rebuild mode and won’t scare anybody for a couple years.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Denver Broncos
Kansas City might just be unstoppable. In a game where Pat Mahomes didn’t even throw a touchdown pass, he still outperformed the Lions defense and won the game for his team. The defense is good enough to compliment the Chiefs, which makes you wonder just who is capable of beating them. The Colts were able to win by keeping Mahomes off the field and taking advantage of an injured front seven. Very few teams have the same power run game the Colts have and they were lucky to face a depleted Chiefs defense. No need for panicking, Arrowhead Nation.
Meanwhile, the race for second will be closer than people think. Jon Gruden’s Raiders have exceeded expectations and are performing very well so far, epitomized by their defeat of the Chicago Bears. However, the Chargers have too much talent to be denied second, they now need to piece it all together and make results go their way more often.
The Broncos don’t deserve to be only 1-4, but in this division I can’t see them finishing anywhere higher than 4th this season.
NFC
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Chicago Bears
3. Detroit Lions
4. Minnesota Vikings
After the AFC South, this was the next hardest division to predict, as all four squads have ceilings that could win the division and lows that could put them in last.
The Packers are finally figuring it out on offense with Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur agreeing that they have to acknowledge each other in this relationship. The defense under Mike Pettine is looking fresh and hungry for more. This was all on display in their impressive victory in Jerry World. Meanwhile, each of the other teams have flaws that are more fatal than those of the Packers.
The Bears aren’t consistent on offense, despite Matt Nagy’s brilliant play-calling ability. Their defense, the supposed best in the NFC, conceded a 97-yard game-winning touchdown drive against the Oakland Raiders.
The Lions don’t have many offensive weapons outside of Kenny Golladay, and with three talented defenses who will scheme to take him away, it will be difficult for the Lions to rely on Kerryon Johnson and put up points.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are struggling to pass the ball, thus frustrating Vikings pass catchers and negating a talented Vikings defense. Kirk Cousins did throw a lot better in Week 5, but it was against a talentless Giants defense. I don’t anticipate Minnesota recovering this season.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Atlanta Falcons
Before the season began, I touted the Falcons to be the dark horse in the ENTIRE NFC. Four games in, and I’m the laughingstock of my friend, who happens to be a Saints fan, as well as all of New Orleans. The Saints, particularly Alvin Kamara and the defense, deserve all the credit in the world for continuing to get positive results in tough games without their fearless leader.
Meanwhile the Panthers look better than ever under second-year man Kyle Allen and will compete for a wildcard spot. Christian McCaffrey is playing at an MVP level at the moment, but I’m concerned about the rest of the Panthers’ offense.
The Bucs shocked the football world by traveling to LA and beating the defending NFC Champion Rams, and this is good news for the Bucs...next season. Things are trending up, however, as Todd Bowles leads a well-coached defense and Bruce Arians (with the help of Byron Leftwich) seems to have brought the best out of Jameis Winston.
The Falcons have imploded due to injuries, lackluster defensive play, and underperforming players (besides Julio Jones). Sunday’s emphatic loss to the Texans further deepens the Falcons’ misery and heats up Dan Quinn’s seat. This is a lost season for the once proud NFC Champions.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins
This division has become, over the last three years, a two-horse race, and all the signs point to that trend continuing this season.
The Cowboys got off to a flying start, beating the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins by a combined score of 97-44. However, the ‘Boys have struggled against the superior defenses of the Saints and Packers and now sit at 3-2, only holding a tie-breaker lead over the Eagles.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are finding their groove as their injured players return and their form returns. Sunday’s dominant win over the Jets confirms the Eagles’ spot among the NFL’s elite. The Cowboys might still challenge for the division and should at least make the playoffs, but I can’t place them over the Eagles.
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
Buoyed by a huge win over the Rams in Week 5, the Seahawks are in a prime position to claim the NFC West and make a playoff run. Russell Wilson has earned his way to being the early frontrunner for MVP with fantastic performance after fantastic performance and has led the Seahawks to a 4-1 record.
The Rams find themselves on a two-game losing streak and are struggling to find a consistent running game.
The 49ers are the ultimate wildcard. Their dominant display against the Browns gives the 49ers the opportunity to make plenty of noise in the playoff field. However, the Vikings have a similar philosophy to that of the 49ers and that philosophy has been hit and miss for Minnesota. I think this 49ers team is better because of the genius of Kyle Shanahan. He gives the Niners offense more ways to win games and sustain drives, and in this league, play-calling is vital to a team’s success. If the Niners continue to impress, they might shoot up the board.
The Cardinals will soon emerge as they continue to build up the team, but this is not the year.
Playoff Bracket
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Dallas Cowboys
AFC
1. New England Patriots
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl Champion
Indianapolis Colts
-Lucas Arzayus, Guest Columnist