And then there were four. The NLCS begins tonight at 8:08pm when Miles Mikolas throws out the first pitch in St. Louis, so it’s the perfect time for the three of us to increase activity on our blog.
By the way, what is up with these start times? Two years ago, Game 1 started at 8:09pm and last year Game 1 started at 8:10pm. But I digress.
Since we don’t have another podcast scheduled until next Wednesday (10/16), and three division series (two, really) were undecided during our recording session two days ago, we’ll use this space to cast our predictions for this series and the ALCS, which begins tomorrow in Houston.
In a pair of intriguing matchups, we begin with the most storied franchises in each league, the New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Yankees have twice as many World Series appearances as any other club in Major League Baseball with 40. They also have twice and half again as many World Series victories at 27.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have only been surpassed for second on the former list in the last five years by the Giants and the Dodgers, but still sit fourth in appearances with 19. They have held on to second in the title department with 11, and are still the only club besides the Yankees in double digits.
Where the Yankees and Cardinals have both existed in their present form since the turn of the 20th century (the Cardinals organization actually dates back to 1882!), their opponents are relatively new clubs.
The Houston Astros (formerly the Houston Colt .45s) opened play for their first season in 1962 and the Washington Nationals (formerly the Montreal Expos) played their inaugural season in 1969. Neither team found very much success in their first few decades of existence.
The Expos had just one playoff appearance before moving to our nation’s capital in 2005, though there is an asterisk on the strike-shortened 1994 season when the Expos were seemingly running away with the NL pennant. A players strike that began on August 11 and forced commissioner Bud Selig to cancer the remainder of the season, as well as the playoffs, cut things short at roughly 114 games. At the time, the Expos were six games ahead of the Braves, who had the next best record in the NL, and were 3.5 games ahead of the Yankees, who were pacing the AL.
The Astros also struggled out of the gate, but enjoyed a run of success in the late 90s that culminated in a World Series appearance in 2005, where they were subsequently swept by the White Sox.
Recent history has been far kinder to both organizations, however. Since 2014, each club has made the postseason four times. The Astros have reached the ALCS three years in a row while the Nationals finally seem to have shaken the playoff monkey from their back with their first NLCS appearance since 1981, another strike-affected season, when they lost in five games to the Dodgers.
This year’s NLCS features two teams coming off Game 5 victories against the NL’s two best clubs. Meanwhile, the two best teams in the AL avoided elimination and will face off in the playoffs for the third time in five years.
Whether you’re a fan of any of the teams in this year’s final four or not, there are plenty of storylines to get excited about as the 2019 season draws to its conclusion. Let’s get to our picks!
National League Championship Series
St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals
Game 1: Friday, October 11 at 8:08pm in St. Louis
Evan
The Nationals are going to win this series and advance to their first World Series in franchise history. :(
They finished the season winning 10 out of 11 games, including 8 in a row. Last week the Nationals seemed to have exorcised their can’t-advance-in-the-postseason demons in their NL Wild Card Game win over the Milwaukee Brewers. And then in the Division Series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, they used their horrible bullpen (MLB worst 5.66 ERA in the regular season) as little as possible and instead went with other starting pitchers in between their usual starts in critical situations.
The Cardinals, though, have some sort of innate ability to have consistent success in the postseason (what I describe as “Cardinals-y-ness”), which will make this series go the full 7 games.
My pick: Nationals in 7
Cory
I actually had a lot more written for this series, but remembered that this is supposed to be a short blurb.
The bottom line here is that the Cardinals’ pitching is good, but it’s not as good as Washington’s. Scherzer hasn’t pitched well this postseason and after an insane start to the playoffs, Strasburg looked ordinary in Game 5 of the NLDS. But the rest of the Nationals’ rotation is more than capable of picking up the slack.
Most people seem to think the Nats need to have Mad Max and Strasburg each start (and win) two games for them to win this series. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but I also don’t think it matters. I’m taking this series to seven games because St. Louis has home field advantage, but if it goes that many games, the St. Louis bullpen will be too spent for it to matter that theirs has been better than Washington’s all season.
My pick: Nats in 7
Eric
The Nationals are the better team, but so were the Braves. I have concerns about the Nats’ bats. It could be very difficult to generate enough runs if someone other than Rendon and Soto fails to step up, and the Cardinals are a team that can claw out tight wins.
That said, Washington has superior starting pitching and have seemingly figured out how to paper over their struggling bullpen. I would take the Nats in 6, but their NLDS battle with the Dodgers has their rotation out of whack, so I’ll give St. Louis another game.
My pick: Washington Nationals in 7
American League Championship Series
Houston Astros vs New York Yankees
Game 1: Saturday, October 12 at 8:08pm in Houston
Cory
Did you know the Astros have the better team non-pitcher WAR this season? Did you also know the Astros had a better bullpen ERA than the Yankees this season? Oh, and don’t forget the Astros have home field advantage.
The only logical reason I have to pick my Yankees to win this series is because the Astros had to continue using their starters and relievers for an extra two games to get past the Rays. Now they only have today to recoup for a Yankees offense that is rolling on all cylinders.
As you might expect, I’m latching onto that very storyline and riding ‘til I die. At least I actually have a chance of being correct, unlike Michael Strahan taking his Giants to beat the Patriots on Thursday Night Football this week.
My pick: Bombers in 6
Eric
Well, at least one league provided us with an epic matchup. While the Nationals and the Cardinals are both savvy, well-deserving ball clubs, the Yankees and Astros are just flat-out more entertaining.
Both teams hit like there’s no tomorrow, but the Astros have a decisive advantage with their rotation. There are some concerns that the Astros can’t line their pitching up as desired, but the math doesn’t add up. Houston was expecting two starts apiece from their three top pitchers on full rest. They’ll get that with Greinke, Verlander, and Cole set to start the first three games.
The Yankees will likely lean on their bullpen more, which could help them scratch out a few wins. The Bronx Bombers are also a different animal at home, so they can’t be written off in this series. However, Houston is simply the better team, and they’re tough at home as well. With four of the games in Texas, I’m taking the Astros to return to the World Series.
My pick: Houston Astros in 7
Evan
The Houston Astros are going to win this series and advance to their third World Series in franchise history and second in the last three seasons.
The Astros have the starting pitching that stacks up against elite lineups – Gerrit Cole threw 8 innings only allowing 1 run in Game 5 of the ALDS last night. The Astros, however, don’t seem to play well on the road in the playoffs. They needed the full 5 games versus the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS, in which the home teams won every game.
The Yankees are a formidable opponent in their own right, winning 103 games this season compared to Houston’s 107. The 2019 ALCS looks to be a carbon copy of the 2017 ALCS in which the Astros beat the Yankees in 7 games with the home teams winning every game.
My pick: Astros in 7