The NFL’s 100th season has reached the halfway mark, and it has not disappointed.
While it is true that offenses continue to rule the NFL, the rushing offense in particular has shown an impressive revival. Out of the ten teams who lead the league in rushing, only the Jacksonville Jaguars (10th) have a losing record while just one of them, the Oakland Raiders, is .500 after Week 9.
Defense has also proven vital to success as seven of the top ten defenses in total yards allowed belong to team at or above the .500 mark.
Certain teams have surprised this season with their success (San Francisco 49ersand the Buffalo Bills) while other teams have severely fallen below expectations, most particularly the Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Los Angeles Chargers (among other teams).
We’ve seen backup quarterbacks defy the odds and lead their teams to glory (Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen) and other signal-callers have underperformed and could be looking for work next offseason (Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston).
With all this in mind, I will look back at my predictions from the quarter mark of the season and adjust accordingly.
AFC
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (1)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3)
3. Cleveland Browns (2)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (4)
At the quarter, I pointed out in detail the Browns’ shortcomings as well as the Steelers’ while emphasizing that the Ravens should not be underestimated this season. Now the Ravens have the best total offensive in the AFC and have truly impressed as they have pushed their way to a 6-2 record after a primetime victory over the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
Lamar Jackson has put the team on his shoulders and he has exceeded all expectations and then some. Jackson is 9th in the NFL in rushing yards per game as a quarterback. He is an MVP candidate and his case will only be strengthened if he can follow up his win against the Patriots by beating the Bills and Niners and leading the Ravens deep into the postseason.
Being physical and winning at the line of scrimmage is still very much an element to success 100 NFL seasons later, and while the Ravens have exemplified that by owning the NFL’s best ground game and the 2nd best ground defense, the Browns have faltered in both categories with their offensive line in the bottom half of the AFC teams and their run defense ranking 30th in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield hasn’t had the time needed to find his star receivers and the porous run defense can’t get off the field. Freddie Kitchens is not the right head coach needed to produce results and it is showing as the Browns have stumbled to a 2-6 record. The good news for them, however, is that they can only get better from here and the issues are clear and easily addressable.
The same, however, cannot be said for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The many questions surrounding this historically great franchise include these: Is Mike Tomlin the right man to lead the team? Is Ben Roethlisberger still the game-changer he once was? Do they need to rebuild or find more immediate solutions? All these questions are unclear and nowhere near finding an answer.
This Steelers squad have areas of strength, including their linebacking corps and a star receiver in JuJu Smith-Schuster, but lack support in the passing game and in the secondary. This offseason will be one of interest as the Rooney family ownership has some important decisions to make.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (1)
2. Houston Texans (2)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4)
4. Tennessee Titans (3)
At the quarter mark of the season, all four teams boasted equal records as well as equal opportunities to claim the division. Now, at the halfway mark of the season, the division is still among the more competitive in the NFL but the picture has become clearer, albeit only a little.
The Colts returned from their bye week with an important home victory against their division rival Texans thanks to an impressive performance by Jacoby Brissett, who has proven he can be the next great franchise quarterback. Their physical dominance, particularly in the trenches, has paved the way for success and should no doubt continue to serve them well.
As for the other AFC South squads, they’re almost there but their flaws continue to hold them back. Deshaun Watson has played extremely well but he can’t win games all on his own. They remain a top-heavy squad who will continue to make noise but can’t get over the hump consistently enough to be a legitimate threat in the AFC.
Minshew Mania remains alive and well, but the Jaguars need to remain consistent and with stiff competition in their division they can ill afford to slip up.
The Titans’ offense is a scattered mess with potential but needs a quarterback who can take advantage of a powerful Derrick Henry and high-pedigree receivers in Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, as well as pro bowl tight end Delanie Walker. At the moment, however, they’ll need to look to the draft to find that signal-caller.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (1)
2. Buffalo Bills (2)
3. New York Jets (3)
4. Miami Dolphins (4)
The Patriots at the quarter mark looked unstoppable. Now, at the halfway mark, they have revealed that they are indeed human. Their complete and utter conquest of the Jets at MetLife epitomized most of their season so far – smothering defense and efficient offense. But their defense, which was playing at a historically dominant level, allowed more touchdowns against the Ravens than they had all season up to that point. Tom Brady showed his age as he was constantly harassed by a rejuvenated Ravens front seven.
I still believe they will get home field advantage this postseason, but it is no longer going to be a cakewalk to the Super Bowl. The biggest issue is the tight end position, as there is virtually no production from Ben Watson and friends. We saw more of that in their loss against the Ravens, who have been the closest thing besides Eli Manning to Bill Belichick’s “kryptonite.”
I still believe they will get home field advantage this postseason, but it is no longer going to be a cakewalk to the Super Bowl. The biggest issue is the tight end position, as there is virtually no production from Ben Watson and friends. We saw more of that in their loss against the Ravens, who have been the closest thing besides Eli Manning to Bill Belichick’s “kryptonite.”
The Bills are right on the Pats’ heels and are ready to pounce on even the smallest slip-ups. Josh Allen is continuing to develop as a passer, which compliments McDermott’s defense, which ranks 3rd in total defense. Devin Singletary leads a strong, physical ground game that ranks 6th in the AFC.
The Jets showed signs of life with their victory against the Cowboys, but their humiliating defeat to the Patriots demonstrated just how far away they are from being contenders.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs (1)
2. Oakland Raiders (3)
3. San Diego Chargers (2)
4. Denver Broncos (4)
The good news for the Chiefs is that the AFC West is not particularly competitive, with the only team showing any signs of life being the Oakland Raiders, who will be a team looking to get over the hump next year but are merely a mid-tier team in 2019.
The concerning news is that Kansas City was meant to destroy every team in its path like it did in the first four games of the season. Instead, they have gone 2-3 since with concerning losses to the Colts and Texans.
The defense has not looked any better this season as the unit ranks 22nd in total defense despite ranking 11th against the pass. That is not good enough to be a legitimate contender in the NFL and with Mahomes’ return still in flux, the defense needs to solve their problems if a first-round bye is to still be in the cards.
The Chargers have been absolutely horrific this season after a strong opening day win against the Colts. Their rushing offense has been non-existent no matter who’s carrying the rock and there’s only so much the defense can do before tiring out. Injuries and the Chargers’ luck have played a role, but the best teams know how to work around that; LA needs to, as well.
Give credit to the Broncos, they’ve proven they still have some fight in them with a few impressive victories – that is, until they lost emphatically to Matt Moore and the Chiefs at Mile High.
NFC
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (1)
2. Minnesota Vikings (4)
3. Detroit Lions (3)
4. Chicago Bears (2)
At the quarter mark of the season, I discussed the Packers and how they were on the cusp of emerging as one of the premier teams this season. Despite a bad loss against the Chargers, Green Bay now sits at 7-2 and are just a half game behind the Saints for the second best record in the NFC. Aaron Jones has stepped up in Devante Adams’ absence and Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his career. This is one of the most complete teams in football and this fact would be celebrated more if it weren’t for a certain team in the Bayou.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have replied to the adversity they faced in Week 4 in dominant fashion. No quarterback posted better numbers in the next four games than Kirk Cousins, who has (for now) quieted his critics and is firing on all cylinders. We’ll see how improved he really is as he plays the Cowboys this week.
Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing yards and is still very much the focal points of Minnesota’s offense. The defense has also benefited from Kirk Cousins’ rebound and are back to their smothering selves. Minnesota currently sits in the second wild card spot and could be the X-Factor NFC team if they are able to make it to January.
When the Lions drafted Matthew Stafford first overall in 2009, the presumption was the Lions would become one of the biggest teams in the NFL if Stafford could ever piece it all together and be the franchise quarterback for a long time. Well, now in Year Ten, Stafford is on track to finish the season with a 100+ passer rating and has pieced it all together. Only thing is, though, the rest of the team hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations this season. The good news? The future looks bright in Motown with up and coming receiver Kenny Golladay and a Matt Patricia-led defense that is only going to get better. Expect a middle of the table finish for the Lions and high expectations for the future.
The Bears, meanwhile, are experiencing an existential crisis as they sit at a thoroughly disappointing 3-5 and face an uphill battle the rest of the season. Matt Naggy has regressed and Mitch Trubisky is paying the price and wasting a tremendously talented Bears defense. This season will be chalked up as the one that slipped away. Hopefully things will get better for this historic franchise.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (1)
2. Carolina Panthers (2)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3)
4. Atlanta Falcons (4)
This has been a very disappointing season for a division that has been one of the NFL’s best over the 2010s. The bright spot, however, is a Saints outfit that is a Bona Fide Super Bowl contender.
Sean Payton has been far and away the best coach in the NFL this season as he’s pulled off six straight wins despite losing Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara due to injuries. This New Orleans team is built to win any type of game, with a loaded offense and an equally potent defense. This team will be a menace in January.
While the Panthers have the bad taste of a crushing defeat in San Francisco, it hasn’t been all bad for Ron Rivera’s team. Kyle Allen has been a breath of fresh air in place of the injured Cam Newton and Carolina will have a tough decision to make this offseason.
Christian McCaffrey has been Carolina’s most valuable player and, if they make the playoffs, they’ll have him to thank.
The Buccaneers continue to confound all of us. Jameis Winston has shown flashes of brilliance all season, but it means nothing if the defense can’t get off the field. Todd Bowles’ secondary is getting killed game after game and it’s costing Tampa Bay wins.
The Falcons need to forget about this season as quickly as possible and figure out the ground game, which has yet to see a running back top 100 yards in a game this season.
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (1)
3. New York Giants (3)
4. Washington Redskins (4)
The NFC East has traditionally been a two-horse race. And now in 2019, it still is. The Cowboys have gone from the sexy Super Bowl pick to the most disappointing team to a possible contender. The worst of the schedule is gone and while the second of the season won’t be a cakewalk by any stretch, Dallas should be the home of an NFC Wild Card game come January.
Don’t count out Philly, however, as they are also rounding into form. But they face a slightly tougher schedule and have a real weakness in their secondary.
The Giants are making progress, but Pat Shurmur needs to win a few more games if he still wants to be roaming a sideline next season. The Redskins are in rebuild mode now and I wouldn’t worry about them for a few years.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers (3)
2. Seattle Seahawks (1)
3. Los Angeles Rams (2)
4. Arizona Cardinals (4)
I’ll admit, I wasn’t a believer in the 49ers at the quarter mark of the season. I believed their offense was hanging on thanks to their defense and I was concerned with the ease of their schedule. Now, at the halfway mark, this team is destined to make a deep playoff run and shock the world.
The scariest thing (for other teams) is that Jimmy G is now playing like a star, as he threw for over 300 yards and made all the right throws in their win over Arizona. Emmanuel Sanders is fitting in to Kyle Shanahan’s system perfectly and the ground game is the second best in the NFL (that’s right, I’m putting them ahead of Minnesota). While the loss of Kwon Alexander is a point of concern for the defense, I still very much believe in this team.
Russell Wilson is continuing to play the best football of his career. He single-handedly has carried the Seahawks to 7-2 and is poised to pounce on the 49ers if they slip up. Monday’s game against San Fran will be telling not just for the division, but the entire NFC playoff picture. I am, however, wary of Chris Carson and if he can carry his stellar first half of the season into the second half. All in all, Seattle is a virtual lock in a very tight NFC playoff race.
What’s happened to the Rams? I’ll tell you: Todd Gurley is overrated. The Rams got to the Super Bowl on the back of CJ Anderson playing the best football of his career and taking pressure off of Jared Goff. Gurley hasn’t been the same player since his surgery and the Rams offense is suffering because of his lack of productivity.
Only the Falcons throw the ball more often than Los Angeles, putting pressure on Goff, who I believe is a system player and not a superstar. The defense is playing more minutes as a result and is suffering because of it. In a loaded NFC, the Rams won’t even make the playoffs.
I like where the Cardinals are headed. Kyler Murray has gone five straight games without a turnover, a remarkable feat for any player, especially a rookie quarterback. Kingsbury needs to add depth to the defense as well as to the offensive line and this Cardinals team will make some noise soon enough.
Playoff Bracket
AFC
1. New England Patriots
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Houston Texans
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings
Super Bowl Champion
New Orleans Saints
over
Baltimore Ravens
-Lucas Arzayus, Guest Columnist