The Divisional round was unkind to me, with a failed two point conversion resulting in a 1-3 finish. However, there's still time for me to break even this postseason. I need three straight wins to finish out the 2019 NFL year to reach 6-5 for this playoff, so I've got to get these right. Let's gamble.
AFC Championship:
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (11-7) @ No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
Line: Kansas City -7
It was supposed to be an explosive showdown between the Ravens and the Chiefs to decide who wins the Lamar Hunt trophy, but the Ravens were soft and couldn't take a punch. Full credit to the Titans for having the stones to deliver that punch and get here, but this is a tougher contest with a more battle-tested team who had to recover from their own errors last week in order to get here.
The Titans can pull this off. They have the running game to exploit Kansas City's porous rush defense, and their secondary has been effective enough to potentially get some key stops. That said, I don't think Tennessee can get this done with another double digit yardage performance from Ryan Tannehill. The Chiefs aren't going to be denied points, so it'll be up to the Titans to sustain enough drives if they want to win this game.
Normally, I'd jump at the chance to grab a touchdown, especially when backing a team that can run the ball as effectively as Tennessee does. I'm not going to do that, and the reason for that is pace. The Titans are a heavy run team, but they aren't a team that moves methodically and chews the clock. They've been a quick strike offense since Mariota took a seat, and that favors a big spread. Quicker scoring equals more possessions which equals more chances for Kansas City to add distance on the scoreboard. It chaps my ass to do this, but I'm laying the tuddy.
The Pick: Chiefs -7 over Titans
NFC Championship:
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (14-3) @ No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
Line: San Francisco -7.5
A lot of people see this game as an opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to don the Superman cape and carry his team to a win over a superior opponent. If you know anything about me, you'll know that I laugh at that notion. The Packers were able to rely heavily on scheme to get guys open last week, but there will be no such luck this week against a dominant 49ers defense that already stomped the Packers into the turf during the regular season. We've also seen this matchup once before, which ended in a 37-8 beatdown for Green Bay.
This was an easily call as far as picking straight-up, but seven and the hook is a tough line to swallow. With the Chiefs being favored by seven as well, this could be a teaser opportunity for you other degenerates out there, but I'm insisting on sticking with normal bets against the spread for this exercise, so I have to make a decision. A wise man once told me to never bet on a team to cover any line unless you think they have a chance to win the game. I think the Packers have zero chance to pull off this upset, so I feel compelled to lay the points.
The Pick: 49ers -7.5 over Packers
AFC Championship:
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (11-7) @ No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
Line: Kansas City -7
It was supposed to be an explosive showdown between the Ravens and the Chiefs to decide who wins the Lamar Hunt trophy, but the Ravens were soft and couldn't take a punch. Full credit to the Titans for having the stones to deliver that punch and get here, but this is a tougher contest with a more battle-tested team who had to recover from their own errors last week in order to get here.
The Titans can pull this off. They have the running game to exploit Kansas City's porous rush defense, and their secondary has been effective enough to potentially get some key stops. That said, I don't think Tennessee can get this done with another double digit yardage performance from Ryan Tannehill. The Chiefs aren't going to be denied points, so it'll be up to the Titans to sustain enough drives if they want to win this game.
Normally, I'd jump at the chance to grab a touchdown, especially when backing a team that can run the ball as effectively as Tennessee does. I'm not going to do that, and the reason for that is pace. The Titans are a heavy run team, but they aren't a team that moves methodically and chews the clock. They've been a quick strike offense since Mariota took a seat, and that favors a big spread. Quicker scoring equals more possessions which equals more chances for Kansas City to add distance on the scoreboard. It chaps my ass to do this, but I'm laying the tuddy.
The Pick: Chiefs -7 over Titans
NFC Championship:
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX
No. 2 Green Bay Packers (14-3) @ No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
Line: San Francisco -7.5
A lot of people see this game as an opportunity for Aaron Rodgers to don the Superman cape and carry his team to a win over a superior opponent. If you know anything about me, you'll know that I laugh at that notion. The Packers were able to rely heavily on scheme to get guys open last week, but there will be no such luck this week against a dominant 49ers defense that already stomped the Packers into the turf during the regular season. We've also seen this matchup once before, which ended in a 37-8 beatdown for Green Bay.
This was an easily call as far as picking straight-up, but seven and the hook is a tough line to swallow. With the Chiefs being favored by seven as well, this could be a teaser opportunity for you other degenerates out there, but I'm insisting on sticking with normal bets against the spread for this exercise, so I have to make a decision. A wise man once told me to never bet on a team to cover any line unless you think they have a chance to win the game. I think the Packers have zero chance to pull off this upset, so I feel compelled to lay the points.
The Pick: 49ers -7.5 over Packers