Well, after a week of wildcard fun, I’m 2-2. Shocker, I know. The matchups this weekend are a bit lopsided, but that’s why we gamble on the spreads. Here’s what’s on tap for Saturday and Sunday.
NFC Divisional Round Game 1:
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on NBC
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (11-6) @ No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Line: 49ers -7
Like two years ago, the Vikings are coming off a thrilling playoff win over the Saints. Last time, they got their asses absolutely kicked by the Eagles, and many blamed the no-show act on Minnesota’s inability to recalibrate for the next week. I don’t think that happens again this time. Minnesota didn’t need a miracle to win in the Superdome last week. They just needed Kirk Cousins to outplay a future Hall of Fame quarterback in the biggest game of his life. Okay, fine. They needed a miracle. They also proved, however, that they have the formula to beat anyone in the NFC when they have a healthy Dalvin Cook. Minnesota’s defense has also been rolling lately, which is going to make them a tough out against a very talented 49ers team.
San Francisco’s defense is terrific, but they struggled throughout the last month of the season. The Saints, Falcons, and Rams all had success moving the ball on that unit. Some of those struggles were likely related to injury and fatigue, as the 49ers had their bye way back in Week 4 and lost several key players to short-term ailments. The first round bye was essential to San Francisco’s super bowl hopes, and we’ll see if the rest that they got will be enough to get that vaunted defense back on track.
I was praying for this line to move to 7. Six and the hook would’ve been tough to bet, but a full tuddy makes it much easier to take the points. Minnesota is good, and I think they have the right formula to hang with San Francisco. I wasn’t quite willing to go full onions and pick them straight-up like Cory, but I’ll take my chances on the Vikes keeping it within one score.
The Pick: Vikings +7 over 49ers
AFC Divisional Game 1:
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (10-7) @ No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Line: Baltimore -9
Tennessee’s late season surge continued through the first week of January, as the Titans ran all over the flailing Patriots to get a nice playoff upset. They largely relied on their running game to limit New England’s chances, and did an effective job attacking the Patriots weaknesses. Mike Vrabel’s decision to pull the plug on Marcus Mariota continues to pay dividends, because this team looked done around the midseason point.
The Ravens has no such concerns at quarterback this year, because their first round pick from 20 months ago is the damn MVP. Lamar Jackson has owned the NFL from the first Sunday of the season, and the Ravens have complimented his brilliance perfectly with a strong core of running backs and tight ends. After a rough start, the Ravens’ defense got in on the act, too. They finished as the league's fourth-best defense by DVOA to go along with their league-best offense.
I’m just going to say it. The Titans have no chance in this game. Ryan Tannehill is who we thought he was, and New England let him off the hook. That’s not going to happen in Baltimore. The Ravens are too good offensively to be stymied by the Titans, whose defense proved to be very flammable when the Saints lit them up late in the regular season in Nashville. Kudos to Tennessee for getting here, but they’re losing this one by double digits.
The Pick: Ravens -9 over Titans
AFC Divisional Game 2:
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. on CBS
No. 4 Houston Texans @ No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Kansas City -9.5
The Texans managed to overcome their playoff woes by edging the Bills in overtime last week, but they didn’t exactly inspire confidence in doing so. Houston needed DeShaun Watson to be Houdini reincarnate, and still nearly lost despite Josh Allen playing football like a headless chicken for the entire fourth quarter. Bill O’Brien looked clueless as usual, blowing an early challenge and having no juice to start the game. They’re going to need a much better showing if they want to pull off this win at Arrowhead.
I’m aware that the Chiefs got beat by this same Texans team during the regular year, but a lot of things have changed since that point. Kansas City’s defense got hot and Patrick Mahomes got healthy, which turned the Chiefs from pretenders back into contenders over the last couple of months. Kansas City looks like the only team in the AFC that can take Baltimore, and I’m hoping to see that matchup next week.
This is another game where an unusually large playoff spread is justified. The Texans are an average team masquerading as a good one, while the Chiefs are the real deal. This one isn’t going to be close, folks. Chiefs win by 20. Lay those points.
The Pick: Chiefs -9.5 over Texans
NFC Divisional Game 2:
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ No. 5 Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Line: Packers -4
There’s nothing better than closing out the divisional round by watching two fraudulent teams play for a spot in the NFC championship game. The Seahawks barely had an even point differential this year, and the Packers’ schedule was an absolute joke. But you can only play the people on the schedule, so here we are.
The Seahawks are a hot mess. They’re on their fourth running back. Their offensive line is banged up. Their defense stinks. Pete Carroll is an idiot. This team would be hopeless without Russell Wilson, who I believe is the best football player on the planet. The fact that they’re even here is a credit to his brilliance, but eventually he’s going to need some help.
The Packers, meanwhile, are constantly being propped up by weak opponents and beneficial officiating. Green Bay has shown zero ability to beat a functional football team all year, and Aaron Rodgers is not an elite quarterback anymore. Green Bay is going to have to lean on their run game, because Aaron Jones has been outstanding.
This is probably the best line of the weekend. Neither team is all that good, but Green Bay is at home and has just a few more good pieces. However, I like Russell Wilson’s chances to keep this competitive. It’s hard for me to envision a beatdown in Lambeau, so I’ll pick the dog in this one.
The Pick: Seahawks +4 over Packers
NFC Divisional Round Game 1:
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on NBC
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (11-6) @ No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Line: 49ers -7
Like two years ago, the Vikings are coming off a thrilling playoff win over the Saints. Last time, they got their asses absolutely kicked by the Eagles, and many blamed the no-show act on Minnesota’s inability to recalibrate for the next week. I don’t think that happens again this time. Minnesota didn’t need a miracle to win in the Superdome last week. They just needed Kirk Cousins to outplay a future Hall of Fame quarterback in the biggest game of his life. Okay, fine. They needed a miracle. They also proved, however, that they have the formula to beat anyone in the NFC when they have a healthy Dalvin Cook. Minnesota’s defense has also been rolling lately, which is going to make them a tough out against a very talented 49ers team.
San Francisco’s defense is terrific, but they struggled throughout the last month of the season. The Saints, Falcons, and Rams all had success moving the ball on that unit. Some of those struggles were likely related to injury and fatigue, as the 49ers had their bye way back in Week 4 and lost several key players to short-term ailments. The first round bye was essential to San Francisco’s super bowl hopes, and we’ll see if the rest that they got will be enough to get that vaunted defense back on track.
I was praying for this line to move to 7. Six and the hook would’ve been tough to bet, but a full tuddy makes it much easier to take the points. Minnesota is good, and I think they have the right formula to hang with San Francisco. I wasn’t quite willing to go full onions and pick them straight-up like Cory, but I’ll take my chances on the Vikes keeping it within one score.
The Pick: Vikings +7 over 49ers
AFC Divisional Game 1:
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (10-7) @ No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Line: Baltimore -9
Tennessee’s late season surge continued through the first week of January, as the Titans ran all over the flailing Patriots to get a nice playoff upset. They largely relied on their running game to limit New England’s chances, and did an effective job attacking the Patriots weaknesses. Mike Vrabel’s decision to pull the plug on Marcus Mariota continues to pay dividends, because this team looked done around the midseason point.
The Ravens has no such concerns at quarterback this year, because their first round pick from 20 months ago is the damn MVP. Lamar Jackson has owned the NFL from the first Sunday of the season, and the Ravens have complimented his brilliance perfectly with a strong core of running backs and tight ends. After a rough start, the Ravens’ defense got in on the act, too. They finished as the league's fourth-best defense by DVOA to go along with their league-best offense.
I’m just going to say it. The Titans have no chance in this game. Ryan Tannehill is who we thought he was, and New England let him off the hook. That’s not going to happen in Baltimore. The Ravens are too good offensively to be stymied by the Titans, whose defense proved to be very flammable when the Saints lit them up late in the regular season in Nashville. Kudos to Tennessee for getting here, but they’re losing this one by double digits.
The Pick: Ravens -9 over Titans
AFC Divisional Game 2:
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. on CBS
No. 4 Houston Texans @ No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Kansas City -9.5
The Texans managed to overcome their playoff woes by edging the Bills in overtime last week, but they didn’t exactly inspire confidence in doing so. Houston needed DeShaun Watson to be Houdini reincarnate, and still nearly lost despite Josh Allen playing football like a headless chicken for the entire fourth quarter. Bill O’Brien looked clueless as usual, blowing an early challenge and having no juice to start the game. They’re going to need a much better showing if they want to pull off this win at Arrowhead.
I’m aware that the Chiefs got beat by this same Texans team during the regular year, but a lot of things have changed since that point. Kansas City’s defense got hot and Patrick Mahomes got healthy, which turned the Chiefs from pretenders back into contenders over the last couple of months. Kansas City looks like the only team in the AFC that can take Baltimore, and I’m hoping to see that matchup next week.
This is another game where an unusually large playoff spread is justified. The Texans are an average team masquerading as a good one, while the Chiefs are the real deal. This one isn’t going to be close, folks. Chiefs win by 20. Lay those points.
The Pick: Chiefs -9.5 over Texans
NFC Divisional Game 2:
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ No. 5 Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Line: Packers -4
There’s nothing better than closing out the divisional round by watching two fraudulent teams play for a spot in the NFC championship game. The Seahawks barely had an even point differential this year, and the Packers’ schedule was an absolute joke. But you can only play the people on the schedule, so here we are.
The Seahawks are a hot mess. They’re on their fourth running back. Their offensive line is banged up. Their defense stinks. Pete Carroll is an idiot. This team would be hopeless without Russell Wilson, who I believe is the best football player on the planet. The fact that they’re even here is a credit to his brilliance, but eventually he’s going to need some help.
The Packers, meanwhile, are constantly being propped up by weak opponents and beneficial officiating. Green Bay has shown zero ability to beat a functional football team all year, and Aaron Rodgers is not an elite quarterback anymore. Green Bay is going to have to lean on their run game, because Aaron Jones has been outstanding.
This is probably the best line of the weekend. Neither team is all that good, but Green Bay is at home and has just a few more good pieces. However, I like Russell Wilson’s chances to keep this competitive. It’s hard for me to envision a beatdown in Lambeau, so I’ll pick the dog in this one.
The Pick: Seahawks +4 over Packers