Howdy, folks! It's been awhile. After a season of restricted funds and limited betting, I'm back in action for the NFL postseason. Like last year, I'll be betting on the lines for all eleven playoff games as we conclude the 2019 football season. We've got four pretty exciting contests coming up this weekend, so let's make some money!
AFC Wildcard Game:
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on ESPN
No. 5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ No. 5 Houston Texans (10-6)
Line: Houston -2.5
ESPN notoriously gets the worst playoff match-up of wildcard weekend, and this year doesn't appear to be much different. Both the Texans and Bills are low-ceiling teams with limited Super Bowl aspirations, and the winner gets a date with either Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in the divisional round. Not great.
The Texans have an unpleasant history playing in the opening postseason game on ESPN. Houston has played on ESPN in each of their playoff appearances since 2015, when ESPN earned the rights to broadcast the opening wildcard game in 2015. This will be the fourth time in six years that Houston hosts this contest. They're 1-2 in those games, including a 30-0 blowout to the Chiefs and last year's listless 21-7 effort against the Colts. The Texans' one win was against the Raiders, who were starting third-string quarterback and notorious Archie Griffin snubber Connor Cook, who played about as well as he did against Alabama in the College Football Playoff the year before. Again, not great. Forgive me for being uninspired by the Texans.
The Bills also don't have much to write home about when it comes to playoff performances this century, mostly because they barely exist. Buffalo will play in just their second postseason game since the Titans Music City Miracle'd their asses right out of the playoffs twenty years ago. The Bills' most recent effort in the postseason amounted to a 10-3 snoozer against the Jaguars, which inspired them to trade their starting QB and draft Josh Allen. We'll see if he can do better.
If you listen to The Sportsballers podcast, you already know where I'm going. I picked the Bills to win outright, so of course I'm going to take the points and ride Buffalo. Houston's offense is entirely reliant on DeShaun Watson connecting on big plays to his receivers, but the Bills secondary is among the best in the league with all-pro Tre'Davious White likely shadowing DeAndre Hopkins all afternoon. The Bills' offense isn't a strength, but their running game is effective enough to score on Houston's mediocre defense, and I expect the Bills to control the game and limit the Texans from making the splash plays they desperately need to compete in a playoff contest.
The Pick: Bills +2.5 over Texans
AFC Wildcard Game 2:
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ No. 3 New England Patriots (12-4)
Line: New England -4.5
I hate this. Why would you schedule both AFC games on Saturday? Split them up! Anyway, the Patriots somehow ended up here after gagging up their final game of the season, and they torpedoed any realistic shot they could've had to get back to the Super Bowl. I did pick them to win this game on account of Tom Brady having more playoff wins than the rest of the playoff field combined, but the Pats don't exactly inspire confidence at the moment. New England hasn't been able to move the football for about two months now. Their receivers can't get separation and repeatedly drop the ball. Their offensive line is leaky. Tom Brady is 42. They simply have no juice right now and they'll be lucky to survive this weekend against a red-hot Titans team. I'll never completely count out a Brady-Belichick team, but this seems pretty far from their normal status as AFC favorites.
On the other side, Tennessee might be the most threatening 9-7 playoff team we've seen since the 2011 New York Giants. This team is clicking on offense, with my boy Derrick Henry running roughshod over everyone and Ryan Tannehill finally having that breakout year we all predicted in 2013... and 2014... and every year since his rookie year until this one. Football is weird. The Flaming Thumbtacks look like the mythological team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs, which makes them a real threat to pull off this upset in New England.
This feels like a game where the Patriots get that key bounce that decides the game. A late fumble, a game-winning field goal, and a defensive stand feel like they're in the works on Saturday night. However, 4.5 is a lot to lay on a team that can't score or control the clock, so I'm inclined to snatch the points. New England wins in a squeaker, but Tennessee covers the line.
The Pick: Titans +4.5 over Patriots
NFC Wildcard Game 1:
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST on FOX
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ No. 3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Line: New Orleans -8
This game felt like the most obvious choice when picking straight-up, and that was meant as no disrespect to the Vikings. Minnesota is a worthy playoff team, but the Saints are the one team playing this weekend that doesn't feel like they belong there. For just the second time in NFL history, a 13-3 team is playing on wildcard weekend. It's been the Saints both times. Wonderful.
New Orleans has been outright dominant in their last few games. Since their clunker at home against the Falcons, the Saints have won every game except a squeaker against the 49ers, proving themselves as a top-flight NFC contender. Drew Brees had the most efficient year of his hall-of-fame career by DVOA, and Michael Thomas is unstoppable. Alvin Kamara has regained his footing after a season hampered by injuries, and the Saints defense is a talented group with a lot of play-makers that can turn a game on a dime. This is a juggernaut of a football team that's playing their best football right now. They're the real deal.
The Vikings are a talented team as well, with two top-flight receivers, an elite running back, and a good coaching staff. I even think Kirk Cousins is a pretty good player. Kirk has been maligned for his awful record in big games, but a lot of those games were with the Redskins, so that seems a bit unfair. That being said, winning in the Superdome in January is a challenge for any quarterback, especially when he has to keep up with Drew Brees for four quarters. I think the Vikings will acquit themselves well and make some plays, but I fully expect the Saints to win this game by double digits. It's a big spread, but I'll lay the points on the home team.
The Pick: Saints -8 over Vikings
NFC Wildcard Game 2:
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST on FOX
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Line: Seattle -2
Once again, the Eagles are a rare home underdog in the playoffs. They might not have anatomically gifted Nicholas anymore, but the team is used to being in this position. Meanwhile, Seattle had an opportunity to host a playoff game, but Pete Carroll once again refused to hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch on the goal line, and now Seattle gets to travel to Philadelphia. Nice work, Pete.
Seattle is such a bizarre team. They have a strong record, but they're not that good. They went 11-5 while playing like a .500 team all year. They got blown off the field by the Rams and the Cardinals late in the season. Their defense sucks. Their line can't block. Their running backs are all hurt. All they have is Russell Wilson, and apparently Russell Wilson is enough. Wilson continues to be the most clutch quarterback in football, consistently delivering in the big moments to eke out close wins and pick his team up. His presence on the field is enough to drag bad teams into contention, and I expect him to have a big impact on Sunday's game.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia enters the playoffs on crutches for the second straight year, with a litany of injuries to their wide receivers and running backs. They managed to win their joke of a division at 9-7, but most would agree that this isn't a legitimate playoff team. The Eagles haven't beaten a high quality opponent since the Packers back in Week 4, and have mixed in some stinkers since that point. However, home-field advantage matters in the playoffs, and I think the bookmakers got this spread right.
Normally I'd be inclined to bet on the underdog at home, but with such a small spread, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where the Eagles lose the game but hit the number. Carson Wentz can only seem to throw good passes to his tight ends, and Zach Ertz is out with a lacerated kidney, so I have my doubts that Philadelphia can score with Seattle in this one. I'm taking the road favorites and lay the two points.
The Pick: Seahawks -2 over Eagles
AFC Wildcard Game:
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on ESPN
No. 5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ No. 5 Houston Texans (10-6)
Line: Houston -2.5
ESPN notoriously gets the worst playoff match-up of wildcard weekend, and this year doesn't appear to be much different. Both the Texans and Bills are low-ceiling teams with limited Super Bowl aspirations, and the winner gets a date with either Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in the divisional round. Not great.
The Texans have an unpleasant history playing in the opening postseason game on ESPN. Houston has played on ESPN in each of their playoff appearances since 2015, when ESPN earned the rights to broadcast the opening wildcard game in 2015. This will be the fourth time in six years that Houston hosts this contest. They're 1-2 in those games, including a 30-0 blowout to the Chiefs and last year's listless 21-7 effort against the Colts. The Texans' one win was against the Raiders, who were starting third-string quarterback and notorious Archie Griffin snubber Connor Cook, who played about as well as he did against Alabama in the College Football Playoff the year before. Again, not great. Forgive me for being uninspired by the Texans.
The Bills also don't have much to write home about when it comes to playoff performances this century, mostly because they barely exist. Buffalo will play in just their second postseason game since the Titans Music City Miracle'd their asses right out of the playoffs twenty years ago. The Bills' most recent effort in the postseason amounted to a 10-3 snoozer against the Jaguars, which inspired them to trade their starting QB and draft Josh Allen. We'll see if he can do better.
If you listen to The Sportsballers podcast, you already know where I'm going. I picked the Bills to win outright, so of course I'm going to take the points and ride Buffalo. Houston's offense is entirely reliant on DeShaun Watson connecting on big plays to his receivers, but the Bills secondary is among the best in the league with all-pro Tre'Davious White likely shadowing DeAndre Hopkins all afternoon. The Bills' offense isn't a strength, but their running game is effective enough to score on Houston's mediocre defense, and I expect the Bills to control the game and limit the Texans from making the splash plays they desperately need to compete in a playoff contest.
The Pick: Bills +2.5 over Texans
AFC Wildcard Game 2:
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) @ No. 3 New England Patriots (12-4)
Line: New England -4.5
I hate this. Why would you schedule both AFC games on Saturday? Split them up! Anyway, the Patriots somehow ended up here after gagging up their final game of the season, and they torpedoed any realistic shot they could've had to get back to the Super Bowl. I did pick them to win this game on account of Tom Brady having more playoff wins than the rest of the playoff field combined, but the Pats don't exactly inspire confidence at the moment. New England hasn't been able to move the football for about two months now. Their receivers can't get separation and repeatedly drop the ball. Their offensive line is leaky. Tom Brady is 42. They simply have no juice right now and they'll be lucky to survive this weekend against a red-hot Titans team. I'll never completely count out a Brady-Belichick team, but this seems pretty far from their normal status as AFC favorites.
On the other side, Tennessee might be the most threatening 9-7 playoff team we've seen since the 2011 New York Giants. This team is clicking on offense, with my boy Derrick Henry running roughshod over everyone and Ryan Tannehill finally having that breakout year we all predicted in 2013... and 2014... and every year since his rookie year until this one. Football is weird. The Flaming Thumbtacks look like the mythological team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs, which makes them a real threat to pull off this upset in New England.
This feels like a game where the Patriots get that key bounce that decides the game. A late fumble, a game-winning field goal, and a defensive stand feel like they're in the works on Saturday night. However, 4.5 is a lot to lay on a team that can't score or control the clock, so I'm inclined to snatch the points. New England wins in a squeaker, but Tennessee covers the line.
The Pick: Titans +4.5 over Patriots
NFC Wildcard Game 1:
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST on FOX
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ No. 3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Line: New Orleans -8
This game felt like the most obvious choice when picking straight-up, and that was meant as no disrespect to the Vikings. Minnesota is a worthy playoff team, but the Saints are the one team playing this weekend that doesn't feel like they belong there. For just the second time in NFL history, a 13-3 team is playing on wildcard weekend. It's been the Saints both times. Wonderful.
New Orleans has been outright dominant in their last few games. Since their clunker at home against the Falcons, the Saints have won every game except a squeaker against the 49ers, proving themselves as a top-flight NFC contender. Drew Brees had the most efficient year of his hall-of-fame career by DVOA, and Michael Thomas is unstoppable. Alvin Kamara has regained his footing after a season hampered by injuries, and the Saints defense is a talented group with a lot of play-makers that can turn a game on a dime. This is a juggernaut of a football team that's playing their best football right now. They're the real deal.
The Vikings are a talented team as well, with two top-flight receivers, an elite running back, and a good coaching staff. I even think Kirk Cousins is a pretty good player. Kirk has been maligned for his awful record in big games, but a lot of those games were with the Redskins, so that seems a bit unfair. That being said, winning in the Superdome in January is a challenge for any quarterback, especially when he has to keep up with Drew Brees for four quarters. I think the Vikings will acquit themselves well and make some plays, but I fully expect the Saints to win this game by double digits. It's a big spread, but I'll lay the points on the home team.
The Pick: Saints -8 over Vikings
NFC Wildcard Game 2:
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST on FOX
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
Line: Seattle -2
Once again, the Eagles are a rare home underdog in the playoffs. They might not have anatomically gifted Nicholas anymore, but the team is used to being in this position. Meanwhile, Seattle had an opportunity to host a playoff game, but Pete Carroll once again refused to hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch on the goal line, and now Seattle gets to travel to Philadelphia. Nice work, Pete.
Seattle is such a bizarre team. They have a strong record, but they're not that good. They went 11-5 while playing like a .500 team all year. They got blown off the field by the Rams and the Cardinals late in the season. Their defense sucks. Their line can't block. Their running backs are all hurt. All they have is Russell Wilson, and apparently Russell Wilson is enough. Wilson continues to be the most clutch quarterback in football, consistently delivering in the big moments to eke out close wins and pick his team up. His presence on the field is enough to drag bad teams into contention, and I expect him to have a big impact on Sunday's game.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia enters the playoffs on crutches for the second straight year, with a litany of injuries to their wide receivers and running backs. They managed to win their joke of a division at 9-7, but most would agree that this isn't a legitimate playoff team. The Eagles haven't beaten a high quality opponent since the Packers back in Week 4, and have mixed in some stinkers since that point. However, home-field advantage matters in the playoffs, and I think the bookmakers got this spread right.
Normally I'd be inclined to bet on the underdog at home, but with such a small spread, it's hard for me to envision a scenario where the Eagles lose the game but hit the number. Carson Wentz can only seem to throw good passes to his tight ends, and Zach Ertz is out with a lacerated kidney, so I have my doubts that Philadelphia can score with Seattle in this one. I'm taking the road favorites and lay the two points.
The Pick: Seahawks -2 over Eagles