If you read my week 1 entry into the realm of DFS advice, you came away with a mixed bag of results. Of my four primary suggested value plays, only DK Metcalf lived up to expectations. The Indy defense only forced one incompletion all game, Marlon Mack was on his way to a monster game until a non-contact, season-ending Achilles injury took him out, and Sony Michel’s touchdown was basically worthless since he only gained 39 yards on the ground and was a non-factor in the passing game.
However, if you dug a bit deeper into my article, I actually did make one good contrarian suggestion in Willie Snead, who scored 14.4 points on just a $5,100 price tag, one of the better value plays of the week that deep in the WR list.
If you used your savings effectively to get multiple high-priced, high-scorers like Davante Adams, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and/or Russell Wilson, this was a game-changer for you.
As for myself, you all will remember that I’m not in this to break the bank and change my life. I’m here to have some fun and maybe win a few bucks along the way. Last week I entered four different lineups in various Sunday Main 50/50 lobbies and, on a whim, wound up entering one lineup in a Monday night lobby since there were two games. I’ll be sticking with Sunday mains through the rest of the season, with Thanksgiving likely to be the only exception since I haven’t seen any Saturday double-headers on the 2020 schedule.
I’ll put my entry results and my winnings (or losings) at the end of my weekly posts going forward, just as my colleague Eric does with his winners.
I’ve decided to rework my method of attack for these writeups to offer one value play at each position and a dedicated contrarian pick at the bottom. I’d also like to clarify how I define a value pick on FanDuel.
As all of you FanDuelers out there know, you get $60,000 to build your roster of 9 players (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX, DEF); that’s an average of $6,667 per player. The most expensive defense this week is the $5,000 sum you’d shell out for the San Francisco 49ers. If you were to do that, you’d have an average of $6,875 per player left to spend. When possible, I’m looking for a player I like at each position who is under that mark, or close enough to it that another value play will free up some cap to spend on top flight players.
So, with that cleared up, let’s get into my value plays for Week 2!
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI QB - $7,200
I know, I know, but hear me out. Trubisky’s fantasy value is only supposed to be there when he’s heavily involved in Chicago’s ground attack. It’s part of the reason why his value wasn’t there last season when he topped 25 rushing yards just twice. But that wasn’t the case last week.
Trubisky barely reached that 25-yard mark on the ground, but he threw for nearly 250 yards and three touchdowns against a Detroit team that completely rebuilt its secondary this offseason. Now he gets to face a hapless New York Giants defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed and I see no reason why he won’t build upon the success of his fourth quarter against the Lions when he completed his last six passes for three first downs and two touchdowns.
While Mitch’s salary is a little above the mark I’m aiming for, any of my other value plays will get you back under that average again.
Jonathan Taylor, IND RB - $5,800
Sorry to take the obvious route here, but if Taylor’s not on your radar and you’re playing in 50/50s or even Double Ups, let me take a moment to put him on there because he’s going to deserve a look every week until his price increases. His cost is $300 less than Marlon Mack’s was last week and I recommended Mack in what was supposed to be a timeshare.
As it turned out, it was a three-way timeshare with Nyheim Hines getting in on the action and Mack was still on his way to being well worth that $6,100 price tag before his injury. Taylor is a talented running back going up against a Minnesota defense that gave up 158 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry last week. Now there’s one less mouth to feed in Indy and, though Hines still figures to get healthy usage and could be considered for his $5,500 price tag, I think Taylor is more than worth spending the extra $300 since he can also play into the passing game for a quarterback who loves to utilize his RBs in every aspect of the offense.
Parris Campbell, IND WR - $5,300
Look, I know Darius Slayton is probably the sexy target at this price point considering he put up 25.2 points last week against a tough Steelers defense and expects to have a tremendous game script against a Bears defense that may or may not be what it once was.
But Indy’s game script figures to be just as good! We’re only one week into the season, but my early takeaway on the Colts’ defense is that it was overhyped coming into the year. I unfortunately bought into that hype when I recommended them last week and regretted it. The Vikings will be able to score on them, which will keep the Colts passing on a defense that couldn’t even slow down the Packers receivers not named Davante Adams. I mean, seriously; Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each scored more than 16 fantasy points on a combined FanDuel salary of $10,700, far less than two-ninths of your allotted money.
Campbell received nine targets last week and looked really good. They even got him involved in the running game with one carry for a 9-yard gain. I expect his usage to go way up. I will also note that, while I will probably split up Campbell and Taylor in my lineups since they each free up space for me to go after higher salaried players, I would feel comfortable putting both in the same lineup this week if I needed value plays at both positions.
Logan Thomas, WAS TE - $4,700
I don’t find a lot of the value TE’s particularly exciting this week. Noah Fant draws a tough matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers defense after basically disappearing in the second half of Monday night’s game. T.J. Hockenson had a solid Week 1 showing, but he had that last year, too, and it wound up accounting for more than 30-percent of his fantasy production for the entire season! And the Rams defense is too good for me to pull my hair out playing pick ‘em between Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Thomas was targeted eight times last week, earning a higher target share than even Terry McLaurin in this Washington offense that is already thin on receiving targets. He now draws a matchup with an Arizona defense that, in half-PPR, ranked dead last against fantasy tight ends last year and at a salary that frees up a ton of cap space for your lineup.
Los Angeles Rams - $4,500
Carson Wentz was sacked eight times last week, threw two picks, and fumbled twice, losing one. I wouldn’t exactly call this an easier matchup for him. Sure, the Rams defense line may not be as menacing across the board as Washington’s, but Aaron Donald might consider it bulletin board material if you suggested he’s not as good as Chase Young and Ryan Kerrigan put together.
Keep in mind, too, that Washington’s secondary, though a bit underrated, benefited largely from their incredible pass rush. The Rams secondary is good in their own right and will be able to force mistakes even when Donald doesn’t get home. I’d love to save you more than $500 at the defensive position, but this is too juicy a matchup to turn down.
Contrarian Pick – Diontae Johnson, PIT WR – $5,800
Trubisky and Campbell are probably contrarian picks in their own rights, but I’ll offer one more, and at a value no less.
Diontae Johnson earned a larger target share in Week 1 than his teammate JuJu Smith-Schuster, as Ben Roethlisberger looked his way 10 times. People may not look to Johnson in their lineups, though, because Smith-Schuster stole the show with two touchdown receptions. But that should also draw more attention from the Broncos secondary away from Johnson, who, I’ll say again, Ben already seems to really like.
*Note: In my weekly results section, the records shown indicate the number of entries in the money (win column) and the number of entries out of the money (loss column) and my net gain or loss, similar to how Eric measures his earnings in his Winners column.
Week 1 Sunday Main results: 4-4 (+.45 units)
Week 1 Monday double-header results: 1-0 (+1.60 units)
2020 results: 5-4 (+2.05 units)