I had a rough Week 2 on FanDuel. My lineups had strong starts in the first half of the 1pm games, but I gradually fell further and further back until only one of my entries finished in the money.
Thankfully I’m not out here breaking the bank with my entry fees. But still, my pride was hurt a bit.
I had some ancillary starts to go with my value picks – Calvin Ridley and David Montgomery were key pieces in my one winning lineup and my starting QB there was Matt Ryan instead of my value QB.
I did hit on a couple of suggestions last week. Jonathan Taylor was the sixth best running back by value on FanDuel, earning 3.1x his $5.8k salary, and Diontae Johnson was the sixth best wide receiver by value, earning 3.31x his $5.8k salary. The problem with Taylor is that he was owned by more than 80-percent of players in most cash games. His ownership wasn’t as high in tournaments, but it was still too high to be particularly advantageous. Johnson was by far my best advice as a contrarian play as tournaments, and even cash games, saw his ownership below 5-percent.
Parris Campbell suffered a devastating season-ending injury on his first touch of the game, Trubisky was unimpressive, and Logan Thomas wasn’t a factor for Washington in Week 2.
All of last week’s results are at the end of this write-up, so feel free to make fun of me for my misses.
A quick reminder that I’m playing Sunday Main (that’s 1pm and 4pm) games only, and I’m targeting players at or under $6,800 in salary, and more often under $6,000 since you won’t find any worthwhile starting QBs at that number and you want plenty of dough to spend on more expensive studs.
Time for my Week 3 value plays!
Cam Newton, NE QB - $7,700
It’s tough to find quarterback value in DFS. A part of me wants to double down on Mitchell Trubisky this week. He draws a matchup with the Falcons who rank dead last against fantasy quarterbacks, helped by Dak Prescott’s monster game last week. Now, Prescott had three rushing touchdowns in that game, but Trubisky is an even bigger threat in the running game than Dak is. But Trubisky’s price went up by $300 since last week and for just an extra $200 you can get Newton, who has looked really good so far and is averaging 30 fantasy points per game.
Jerick McKinnon, SF RB - $5,700
To be clear, Jonathan Taylor will be in more than one of my cash lineups this week. But I said last week that he’s going to deserve a look every week until his price increases. Now, Taylor’s price did go up by $900 since Week 2, but that’s not enough to take him off my every-week play list in cash games, especially drawing such a juicy matchup in the Jets.
So, since I already used Taylor last week and told you to give him consideration for the foreseeable future, how about somebody who is even less expensive than Taylor was last week? McKinnon has nobody ahead of him on the San Francisco RB depth chart right now with both Mostert and Coleman ruled out of this week’s game due to knee injuries. Jerick has double digit points in each of the season’s first two games despite just nine total touches and should be the workhorse this week with Jimmy Garoppolo also out with an injury.
DK Metcalf, SEA WR - $6,500
I had Metcalf as a value play back in Week 1 for his matchup with the Falcons. He’s now scored 17 points in back to back weeks on FanDuel and last week he did it while shadowed by 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. Matt Ryan had a bit of an off day in terms of accuracy and the Falcons turned to the run game for a while during last week’s game against Dallas. Russell Wilson’s superiority and an expectation of less than five Dallas turnovers should allow Metcalf to eat again this week.
Jonnu Smith, TEN TE - $5,600
This week’s tight end projections are tough, because there are a lot of players and matchups I like. It took them a while to get on the same page, but Noah Fant received six targets from Jeff Driskel all in the second half last week, so he could have a big game. Dallas Goedert is looking more and more like the TE to own in Philly and draws a plus matchup with Cincy this week at a lower cost than either Fant or Smith.
But Smith has looked really good these first two weeks, he has great chemistry with Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown is banged up, and the Vikings defense has looked pretty terrible to start the year. They gave up a lot of points to the Colts’ backup TE last week and are only ranked 12th against tight ends through two weeks because Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw to his.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $3,800
The Colts certainly have a juicy matchup against the Jets, and they’re coming off a monster 15-point performance against Minnesota. But they cost an extra thousand dollars and the Bucs are coming off their own 14-point game against the Carolina Panthers, who got a lot of production out of Christian McCaffrey before he suffered his ankle injury. The Broncos offense hasn’t looked that great, Drew Lock is out, and Courtland Sutton is done for the year. I’m all in on the Bucs defense as a hold ‘em unit for season-long leagues, at least for the next two or three weeks, and I’m a believer in them this week for DFS as I’ll likely have them in all of my lineups.
Contrarian Value Pick – Braxton Berrios, NYJ WR - $5,100
Look, I know nobody wants to use a Jet in their fantasy lineup, but hear me out. The fact that nobody wants him means he won’t be in other lineups, and $5,100 gives you a lot of extra coin for the rest of your roster. Berrios is one of just two mouths to feed in New York this week. The game script should call for plenty of passing, and with both Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder ruled out, Darnold should look toward his favorite receiver from a week ago a lot.
Sunday Morning Edit (10:15 a.m.) Adam Humphries, TEN WR - $4,600
With the news late in the week that Berrios is questionable for this afternoon with a hamstring injury, I'm staying the hell away from the Jets as I probably should have done in the first place. Humphries is putting in some decent work this season and somehow escaped my radar because I didn't continue scrolling down into the 4 thousand dollar range. With games of 7 and 13 points on his ledger so far, Humphries saves you another five grand if you want to upgrade another position a bit. I'll still include results for Berrios in next week's write-up, but let it be known I'm officially switching him to Humphries in every lineup I used him in.
Disagree with my assessments? Agree Fuller’s ownership will be low but think it’s for good reason? Comment below or hit me up on Twitter, @CoryPuffett.
My Week 2 value play results are below along with my season DFS results to date.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Mitchell Trubisky 15.2 (2.11x $7,200 salary) [QB15 by value, QB17 by points]
Jonathan Taylor 18.0 (3.1x $5,800 salary) [RB6 by value, RB10 by points]
Parris Campbell 0.7 (0.13x $5,300 salary) [WR99 by value, WR98by points]
Logan Thomas 4.6 (0.97x $4,500 salary) [TE22 by value, TE22 by points]
LA Rams 7.0 (1.56x $4,500 salary) [DEF10 by value, DEF9 by points]
Diontae Johnson 19.2 (3.31x $5,800 salary) [WR6 by value, WR6 by points]
*Note: In my weekly results section, the records shown indicate the number of entries in the money (win column) and the number of entries out of the money (loss column), as well as my net gain or loss in units.
Week 2 Sunday Main Results: 1-7 (-3.4 units)
2020 results: 6-11 (-1.35 units)
-Cory Puffett