What's up, party people?! Football is back, and that means it's time to win more money. For those of you who are new, I pick five games against the spread every week. However, I'm going to do things a little differently this year. I'll still be picking five winners ATS, but I'll also disclose situations where I opt for the money line bet or perhaps roll two picks into a parlay. This is so any of you crazy kids who listen to my advice can use it as you see fit while also seeing how I decided to make my bets. I'll include my ATS record and my net gains/losses every week. So without further ado, here are your picks for Week 1!
Games
Philadelphia (-5.5) @ Washington
The only thing more laughable about Washington this year is their goofy team name. The Football Team seems destined for the cellar this year, while the Eagles figure to contend for the NFC East and hope to return to the playoffs. Philly comes into Week 1 relatively healthy by their standards, so laying less than a touchdown seems like a juicy opportunity out of the gate. Perhaps the only saving's grace for Washington is the lack of fans in the stands, which means they won't have to play in front of a bunch of screaming Eagles fans and can play a more neutral game at home. Regardless, Philly rolls. Fly Eagles, Fly.
The Pick: Eagles -5.5
Seattle (-2.5) @ Atlanta
I can't imagine Seattle would be favored as a road team if there were fans in the stands for this one, but we live in interesting times. That said, I still believe there's some advantage of playing at home, especially with Seattle having to travel east. I'm also wary of the Seahawks given their history of not using their best player until they absolutely have to, and I don't believe in teams who constantly have to win close games. Also noteworthy: Matt Ryan owns Seattle. He's put up huge numbers against the Seahawks, and their defense has only gotten worse over the years. I wish I could've gotten this one at +3 for the Falcons, so I'd suggest opting for the money line on this one. Either way, I'm taking the Dirty Birds.
The Pick: Falcons +2.5 (+115 ML)
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Minnesota
If you've listened to the pod, you know that none of the Sportsballers are feeling the Packers this year. We're a little more mixed on the Vikings, but I think Minnesota has a solid team. Aaron Rodgers claims that he likes flying under the radar, but I don't agree with that assessment. The Packers aren't hiding in the bushes waiting to pounce on the NFC. They're a wounded animal in the open field. Minnesota has to overcome some history here, especially with Kirk Cousins, but I'm going to take my chances with the superior team. Skol.
The Pick: Vikings -2.5
Chicago (+2.5) @ Detroit
I've got the Lions winning the NFC North this year, but that's not really a compliment. I think this division stinks this year and someone has to win it. That said, Detroit is a few steps ahead of Chicago, even with that talented defense. Matt Stafford was dominant last season before sustaining an injury, and the Bears seem set on going down with the S.S. Trubisky. I'm not hopping aboard that ship. Lions cover the small spread.
The Pick: Lions -2.5
Dallas (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
Another year, another offseason of gassing up the Cowboys. I actually like this team somewhat, but Week 1 with a new coach, a quarterback with a big spotlight on him, and general dysfunction around this franchise concerns me, especially against a truly under-the-radar team in the Rams. Dallas will find their footing throughout the year under Mike McCarthy, but I'm going to take the more steady team in the Sunday Night opener.
The Pick: Rams +2.5 (ML +125)
Eric's Week 1 Ticket:
Here are the bets I ended up making. We're getting a little wild in Week 1. All spread bets are -110 payouts unless otherwise stated. All bets are one unit unless otherwise stated.
Two Leg Parlay: Vikings -2.5 and Rams ML +125 (two unit bet; potential gain of 6.591 units)
Falcons +115 ML
Eagles -5.5
Lions -2.5
Enjoy the games!
- E