We did it!! We finally won!!
Well, sort of. I finally broke out of that three-week slump I’d been in where not a single one of my entries finished in the money. Half of my entries won this week, though unfortunately my two-unit entry did not and so I still wound up with a net loss on the week. Still, I’ve slowed the bleeding and hopefully this week I’ll finish in the black for the first time in a month.
My defense was a bust this week, but so were just about all of the value defenses, and I did say I wouldn’t likely be using my value defense. I didn’t, and I’m glad of that. Hopefully you all read my column and don’t just look at who I’ve suggested. There’s more nuance to my writing than just the headlines.
Chase Claypool was also a bust, finishing with one catch for -2 yards. He actually had negative points in my season-long .5-PPR league because we penalize a point for a fumble and another for losing it. He put that ball on the ground before picking it back up. Regardless, he was just about as bad as he could be.
The rest of my value plays ranged from excellent to solid, and I did a better job of picking high-priced players to pair with these guys. One of my lineups finished above 200 points, in fact, thanks to both Kyler Murray and Tyler Lockett being in that lineup.
So, let’s complete the process of righting this ship and win some money this week!
Derek Carr, LV QB - $7,300
Carr has finished with at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games, and has looked pretty good this season. The Browns defense hasn’t been very good against the pass, giving up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, which was demonstrated against the Bengals last week. Cleveland’s offense has also been coming into form which should keep the pressure on Las Vegas to throw deep into the fourth quarter.
Guys like Henry Ruggs have been gaining Carr’s trust recently, and before a terrible game against Tampa Bay, even Nelson Agholor was making his presence felt in the Raiders passing game. I think Sunday could be a big day for this passing attack.
Myles Gaskin, MIA RB - $5,700
There really aren’t a lot of value running backs that excite me this week. Jerick McKinnon is worth consideration if he’s officially named the starter vs Seattle, but JaMycal Hasty was much more impressive last week after Jeff Wilson’s injury than McKinnon has been in weeks.
Gaskin, on the other hand, very much intrigues me this week. The Rams aren’t a plus matchup for fantasy running backs this season, giving up about 18.4 fantasy points per game to the position, ninth best in the NFL. But Gaskin is one of the handful of workhorses in the NFL so he’ll get pretty all of the RB points in this one.
This is Tua Tagovailoa’s debut as an NFL starter, and I have to believe that the Dolphins will try to balance out their attack or maybe even go a bit run-heavy to take some of the pressure off their rookie quarterback.
Gaskin has caught more than 90 percent of his targets in the pass game, so he’s reliable when used, and he’s been very effective running the ball, reaching double digit fantasy points in four of his last five games despite only reaching the end zone once all season.
Tyler Boyd, CIN WR - $6,400
Tennessee bleeds points to wide receivers. After giving up big days to Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster on Sunday, the Titans have given up the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Cincinnati’s offense is starting to click.
Joe Mixon is expected to miss this week, and Giovani Bernard is more effective as a pass catcher than as a runner. The Titans will also look to bounce back from their first loss of the season and put some points on the board. So, the Bengals should be airing it out quite a bit this week.
A.J. Green is worth consideration for $5,800, as is Tee Higgins for $6,000. I may even consider diversifying my lineups by having at least one share of each of them. Green has had double digit targets in two straight games, so you know he’s getting back to his old self and has developed a strong connection with Joe Burrow. And Tee Higgins was my value play last week for good reason. His production decreased slightly after a big game in Indianapolis, but he found the end zone for the first time since Week 2.
But I’m not scared of using Cincy’s top receiver, considering JuJu hauled in 9 of 14 targets against the Titans last week. Boyd will be open plenty and will be targeted heavily. I’ll use the other two where I’m strapped for cash. But in my lineups where I can afford it, I prefer Boyd out of the three.
Darren Waller, LV TE - $6,800
I know Waller is literally the most expensive one of my value plays can be, but he’s worth it this week.
Waller has been terrific this season. He had one terrible game against New England but has had at least seven targets in every other game this season. He’s found the end zone in half of his starts. He’s been consistent. And now he draws a plus matchup with the Browns.
Cleveland ranks 20th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving up 11.6 per game, despite not playing many good tight ends this season. In fact, the only game they’ve played against a good tight end was in Week 1 when they allowed Mark Andrews to find the end zone twice!
Start Waller with confidence. I’ll no doubt have multiple shares of him since I don’t really like the other value options. T.J. Hockenson draws a tough matchup with Indy, who has given up less than four points per game to tight ends. And Jonnu Smith has two straight one-catch performances, which doesn’t give me much confidence in him even though he’s facing the Bengals who have given up the third most points to the position. Noah Fant is the only other value tight end I might consider this week.
New Orleans Saints - $3,600
Once again, this week, most of the top defensive plays are on the expensive side, as far as defenses go. The Chiefs are the top play of the week but cost the max $5,000. The Rams ($4,900 at MIA) and Bills ($4,500 vs NE) are also good plays this week.
But unlikely last week, when the Cowboys were just, in my opinion, the best of a terrible pick of options, I actually like the Saints and won’t go out of my way to avoid needing to use them for savings.
The Bears offense is not good. Nick Foles has thrown a pick in every game he’s played in this season and has just three touchdown passes in his last four games. Chicago’s offensive DVOA is -16.6 percent, which is 26th in the NFL. Nick Foles ranks 25th in DYAR and DVOA among qualifying quarterbacks (min. 105 passes) and David Montgomery ranks 24th in DYAR and 23rd in DVOA among running backs with at least 56 rushes. If you decrease the minimum to 11 rushing attempts, another 19 running backs have a higher DYAR and more than that rank ahead of him in DVOA. This offense stinks and Allen Robinson has yet to clear the concussion protocol and practice this week.
Contrarian Value Pick Marquise Brown, BAL WR - $5,900
Brown has been a disappointment this season. He logged decent outings against Washington and Cincy but then had another sub 10-point fantasy day against the Eagles last week.
The Ravens offense has been struggling a bit to find its groove this season, but I think Brown has a good shot of making an impact this Sunday. This will be a very competitive game, which will keep the game script fairly balanced for Baltimore, or at least as balanced as it usually is.
The Steelers give up the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league and Brown’s six targets against Philly were tied for his lowest target total of the season. He’s been a consistent part of the Ravens game plan even if they haven’t been consistently effective in getting him the ball in space. The Steelers defense can be beat for big plays occasionally. We saw A.J. Brown take a slant to the house last weekend. Brown has burner speed and can take the top off of any defense, even Pittsburgh’s.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Matthew Stafford 18.40 (2.52x $7,300 salary) [QB11 by value, QB11 by points]
Todd Gurley II 21.2 (3.21x $6,600 salary) [RB6 by value, RB3 by points]
Tee Higgins 16.3 (2.85x $5,700 salary) [WR13 by value, WR13 by points]
T.J. Hockenson 14.4 (2.44x $5,900 salary) [TE2 by value, TE2 by points]
Dallas Cowboys 4.0 (0.54x $3,700 salary) [DEF17 by value, DEF17 by points]
Chase Claypool 0.3 (0.04x $6,400 salary) [WR77 by value, WR77 by points]
Week 7 Sunday Main results: 4-4 (-1.00 units)
2020 results: 18-41 (-14.33 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)