Despite missing on some of my value plays last week, I used the savings from those players well in my various lineups.
I split between the Colts and Bucs on defense, depending on how much money I had for the position (Indy was an extra thousand bucks) and got great payoffs from both. For the record, the Colts were worth the extra money when I had it.
Where I didn’t use Cam Newton, I had shares of Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray, and I had shares of Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook, all of whom turned in great fantasy performances to compliment a solid game from Jerick McKinnon.
At wide receiver, I didn’t have any 20-point plays but I had DK Metcalf in every lineup and healthy shares of DeAndre Hopkins. They gave me decent returns.
Tight end was a miss for me last week, but it was a miss for most people unless you blew all your money on other position and got lucky with your cheap play at the position. As I mentioned in my AFL write-up earlier this week, six of the top seven tight ends in Week 3 weren’t rostered in our 12-team league.
Even with mixed results on my value plays, I turned things around after finishing out of the money in seven of eight entries in Week 2 to finish in the money on seven of eight in Week 3. You can see the results of all of my value plays from last week at the end of my writeup.
As I lay out my Week 4 value plays, remember that I am looking only at Sunday Main players, so no Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football. Also, if you entered a lineup early in the week, be sure to take out any Steelers or Titans players you may have been using since their game has been postponed to a later week in the season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA QB - $7,100
This may be as close as I’ll ever get to suggesting a quarterback value play near the $6,800 mark. We rarely have viable options below $7,500, but we have one this week. Fitzpatrick is coming off a couple of really good performances after his stinker against New England in Week 1, including a great bounce-back game against Buffalo (granted, the Bills defense has shown signs that it may not be in 2020 what it was in 2019).
Having a viable prospect behind him seems to have lit a fire under Fitzpatrick and he’s going up against a Seahawks defense that is giving up the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks at 439 yards per game. Now, Fitzy likely won’t reach that number, but you never know with Mike Gesicki breaking out and Miles Gaskin emerging as a factor in the passing game.
As always, remember that my goal is to save you money at one position so you can go get a stud at another. Quarterback isn’t always the best position to take the cheap option on, but if you’re really liking the studs elsewhere, you can go a lot worse than Fitzpatrick this week.
Devin Singletary, BUF RB - $6,000
Quick note: Jonathan Taylor’s price has now risen by $1,700 over the past two weeks, from $5,800 when I had him as my RB value play in Week 2 to $7,500 this week. He is well out of the value range now, so he’s officially retired from value play status and you won’t see him mentioned in my column any more this year.
Singletary has seen an uptick in usage every week this season and had 17 touches last week against the Rams. And to those who would say, “well yeah, the Bills were leading by 25 points, but he didn’t run well or the Rams wouldn’t have caught up,” I’ll say that just isn’t the case.
After the Bills took a 28-3 lead on their first drive of the third quarter, Singletary touched the ball just five times. He carried the ball four times for 35 yards (8.75 ypc) and caught one pass on two targets for 7 yards. He did most of his damage while the Bills were building their lead. The Bills passing plays failed in the second half and allowed the Rams to come back, not their rushing plays.
Now Singletary draws a matchup with the Raiders, who are giving up the most points per game to opposing fantasy running backs and I expect his usage to continue to increase, hopefully past the 20-touch mark this week. I’d say that lends itself pretty darn well to a strong return on an investment of just six grand.
Sammy Watkins, KC WR - $5,600
Saturday Evening Edit (9:00 p.m.) Randall Cobb, HOU WR - $5,400
I initially had Watkins here because he's a cheap option who could free up enough money to stack him with his quarterback, who was only the third most expensive quarterback on FanDuel for the Sunday Main slate. But with the Chiefs/Patriots game postponed until Monday or Tuesday (or possibly later in the season like we saw happen with the Steelers/Titans game), we've gotta call an audible.
Randall Cobb had a strong game last week against a tough Pittsburgh defense, emerging as a top target for Deshaun Watson. He draws a much easier matchup this week with Pittsburgh and as a bonus he gives you another $200 to work with. That's the difference between plugging Amari Cooper in your lineup and going with a possible contrarian WR in Kenny Golladay, who faces the Saints, ranked 8th against fantasy wide receivers this season but without both of their starting cornerbacks this Sunday.
T.J. Hockenson, DET TE - $5,400
Another big money saver here and as an added bonus, especially if you’re looking for GPP plays in addition to cash plays, Hockenson may not be used as much because Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are both playing in the Sunday Main window this week.
Hockenson had the second highest percentage of routes run per drop back among tight ends in Week 3, even with Kenny Golladay back from injury, and was tied with Golladay for the lead in target share for the game. Now he faces a Saints team that has given up the most fantasy points to the tight end position this year, and it’s not just because they’ve given up a touchdown to the position in each game; New Orleans has also allowed 100 receiving yards to tight ends in each of their last two matchups.
I expect the Saints to win this game which should keep the Lions in a passing game script for much of it, especially in the second half. I suspect I will have Hockenson in most of my FanDuel lineups this Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks - $4,000
There really aren’t a lot of good value options at defense this week. I knocked it out of the park with my Tampa Bay pick last week, but they’ve moved from $1,200 under the max to just $300 under the max at the position.
Seattle is probably the best of the cheaper options because of the upside offered by their ability to force turnovers. But they also are 21st in the NFL in points allowed and dead last in yards allowed. In fact, the Seahawks have allowed more yards defensively through their first three games than the Jets or Broncos have allowed through four games! Yeesh.
So yeah, if you’re in a bind and need a cheap option, the Seahawks are a viable one. So, too, are the Bengals at just $3,400 as they face the Jaguars. But I fully expect the top four scoring defenses in fantasy this week to be the four most expensive: namely, Baltimore (at WAS), Indianapolis (at CHI), Los Angeles Rams (vs NYG), and Tampa Bay (vs LAC). I don’t intend to have more than one share outside of those four in my lineups this week.
Contrarian Value Pick Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR RB - $6,400
Henderson is going to be overlooked a bit, in part because he’s a little more expensive as far as value plays go and because his Fantasy Points Per Game number on FanDuel sits at just 12.73, hurt by his Week 1 score against Dallas when he didn’t even score a whole point.
Henderson’s last two games have been great, though, at more than 18 points apiece, and Sean McVay seems to really like the kid. McVay implied this week that Henderson could remain the starter even after Cam Akers returns from his rib injury. And to that point, McVay also said on Thursday he doesn’t expect Akers to be available this week, so unless something changes we don’t have to worry about that in DFS.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Cam Newton 12.18 (1.58x $7,700 salary) [QB25 by value, QB23 by points]
Jerick McKinnon 15.2 (2.66x $5,700 salary) [RB11 by value, RB10 by points]
DK Metcalf 17.0 (2.61x $6,500 salary) [WR20 by value, WR17 by points]
Jonnu Smith 8.6 (1.53x $5,600 salary) [TE15 by value, TE10 by points]
TB Buccaneers 16.0 (4.21x $3,800 salary) [DEF2 by value, DEF2 by points]
*Adam Humphries 6.1 (1.32x $4,600 salary) [WR42 by value, WR46 by points]
Braxton Berrios 14.4 (2.82x $5,100 salary) [WR18 by value, WR21 by points]
*Sunday morning edit switched Berrios to Humphries in my Week 3 write-up due to questionable injury designation for Berrios
Week 3 Sunday Main Results: 7-1 (+4.02 units)
2020 results: 13-12 (+2.67 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)