I don’t want to talk about last week, but I guess I have to.
I managed to find myself out of the money on every Sunday Main entry. I hit on some of my value plays and missed badly on others. Malcolm Brown wound up carrying most of the load for LA on the ground and Cobb couldn’t get going for Houston.
I actually did pretty well for myself on other value play predictions. And I did have some nice non-value plays in my lineups, such as Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews, and DeVante Parker (who I initially mentioned but didn’t ultimately go with as my WR value).
Unfortunately, other plays like Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and Kenyan Drake didn’t pan out, and I just had a bad mix of players in my lineups. Based on the number of good plays I had overall, I would’ve expected to finish in the money on about half of my entries. But those are the breaks. I scored more than 160 points in my main season-long league this week but laid a massive turd in DFS.
The good news is I bounced back with a solid Monday night entry. I used Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams and found myself in the money to make up a fraction of my Sunday loses. I’m dedicated to this for the season so here we go again with another lineup of value picks for your Week 5 Sunday Main lineups!
If you set lineups earlier in the week, be sure to go back and adjust since there are four teams that were in the Sunday Main slate but are now playing on Monday or Tuesday. Let’s get to it.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR QB - $7,100
Bridgewater is coming off a huge game against Arizona last week, complete with an incredible rushing touchdown. His last two games have been much better than his first two from a fantasy football standpoint, but there’s a case to be made that he played better in his first two games when he averaged 60 more passing yards per game. A big part of that was the loss of offensive tackle Russell Okung, who returns from a groin injury this week.
I expect Mahomes and Murray to be the highest scoring QBs of Week 5, joined by Lamar Jackson as long as his knee doesn’t inhibit his rushing ability. But if you need to save some cap space at the QB position, I like Bridgewater to finish ahead of other bargain QBs like Roethlisberger, Burrow, and Fitzpatrick.
James Robinson, JAC RB - $6,600
Robinson comes in just under the $6,800 threshold skill position players have to be under for me to consider them values. For an extra $200 savings, I strongly consider keeping an eye on Raheem Mostert’s status and, if he’s inactive Sunday, getting some shares of Jerick McKinnon.
But with Mostert questionable and trending towards a game-time decision, James Robinson is a great option. He is averaging more than 17 points per game and has feasted the past two weeks against bad rushing defenses in Cincinnati and Miami. Last week’s game looks bad because he failed to find the end zone, but touchdowns are unpredictable so you have to look at the volume.
Robinson continues to get a lot of touches, and he turned 17 runs and 4 receptions into more than 100 yards against the Bengals. Now he faces a Houston Texans defense that ranks 32nd against the run.
Robby Anderson, CAR WR - $6,200
I know last week I said not to stack a value QB with his wide receiver, but I was very wrong about that as Fitzpatrick had a very good game and had DeVante Parker heavily involved. Well, this week’s pairing of Bridgewater and Anderson is even better against a poor Atlanta Falcons defense.
I recommend Anderson as a value play in all lineups, not just those with Teddy Bridgewater under center. But if you stack them, you will have a lot of extra money to gather a solid lineup of fantasy studs. He’s easily my DFS play of the week.
Tyler Higbee, LAR TE - $6,000
I don’t like this one bit. Tyler Higbee had one incredible game in Week 2 but has been completely irrelevant in fantasy other than that. But I have to consider the matchups.
The other three players I considered for this spot are Zach Ertz (at PIT), Mike Gesicki (at SF), and Dalton Shultz (vs NYG). The Giants and 49ers are both among the top 7 in fewest points per game given to fantasy tight ends. Pittsburgh is a better matchup as they’re closer to the middle of the pack.
While Zach Ertz is undoubtedly a better player than Higbee, he’s also $500 more expensive and Higbee’s matchup is with the Washington Football Team, which has given up the fourth most points per game to tight ends this year, including five touchdowns, which ties for second most allowed in the NFL to the position.
Pittsburgh Steelers - $4,400
There are two really good defensive matchups I’ll be looking to get shares of this week in the Sunday Main slate. I’ll happily take shares of the Rams against Washington and their new starting QB Kyle Allen. The 49ers are also worth consideration against Miami, but I much prefer Pittsburgh’s defense against Philly for a $200 savings compared to San Francisco.
Pittsburgh’s fantasy defense was my top play for Week 5 before news broke about Kyle Allen taking over the starting job in Washington. The Rams are now my preferred play, but they’re at the $5,000 max. Where I can’t fit them into my lineups, I’ll be using Pittsburgh.
Contrarian Value Pick Kenyan Drake, ARI RB - $6,200
A lot of people will be hesitant to use Drake in fantasy this week. In fact, some of his season-long owners may have him riding the pine after last week’s awful performance. I had shares of him in DFS last week, as I mentioned in my intro, and it did not turn out well.
While I understand the trepidation, you won’t find many better matchups than the New York Jets. New York’s biggest defensive weakness is against the run, which should mean a good bit of work for Drake early in the game. New York also won’t be putting up a lot of points, which means a good game script for Drake to get plenty of carries late in the game, too.
Chase Edmonds is getting most of the passing down work, but Drake is still the lead horse in the run game. He’s been a bust so far this year, and he very well may remain so, but this should be a good game for him.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Ryan Fitzpatrick 23.3 (3.28x $7,100 salary) [QB5 by value, QB8 by points]
Devin Singletary 16.1 (2.68x $6,000 salary) [RB10 by value, RB10 by points]
*Randall Cobb 4.6 (0.85x $5,400 salary) [WR56 by value, WR56 by points]
T.J. Hockenson 9.9 (1.83x $5,400 salary) [TE7 by value, TE6 by points]
Seattle Seahawks 5.0 (1.25x $4,000 salary) [DEF9 by value, DEF10 by points]
Darrell Henderson Jr. 4.3 (0.67x $6,400 salary) [RB39 by value, RB36 by points]
*Saturday evening edit switched Watkins to Cobb in my Week 4 write-up due to the Chiefs/Patriots game moving to Monday night in a COVID postponement
Week 4 Sunday Main results: 0-8 (-5.20 units)
Week 4 Monday double-header results: 1-0 (+1.60 units)
2020 results: 14-20 (-0.93 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)