Week 5 punched me in the gut, kicked me in the shin, and stood over me laughing. I know Week 4 was a terrible week for me, but last weekend was awful.
From a DFS standpoint, I had Mike Davis in several lineups only to sub him out because I was so high on Teddy and Robby. While both of them had decent weeks, Davis was the highest scoring and highest value RB in the Sunday Main slate.
FanDuel was particularly annoying last week because I couldn’t track my progress. FanDuel’s data provider had major outages and they did a terrible job of communicating with costumers. It would’ve been a nice gesture on their part to refund lost entries, but of course that goes against capitalism.
They ultimately got the scores in, and correct, so I suppose it’s a situation of no harm, no foul. It was still rather annoying.
In any case, last week was also gutting from a fan standpoint as we lost Dak Prescott for the season. Yes, he’s my fantasy quarterback, but I could care less about that. I’ll find somebody else and while my team won’t be as good, fantasy is just that.
Dak is a special dude. The courage he showed to be so open with the public about his mental health struggles this offseason is inspirational, especially knowing that there’d be f***ers like Skip Bayless suggesting that it makes you less able to lead a football team as a quarterback. Dak’s got a fan for life right here and I cannot wait to see him back on the field in 2021, even if it is for the team I grew up loathing.
And with that off my chest, let’s see if we can right this DFS ship with our Week 6 value plays.
Matthew Stafford, DET QB - $7,300
I’ve seen a number of experts recommending Kirk Cousins this week thanks to a plus matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. I will grant that Cousins is the least expensive of the quarterbacks I consider to be “startable” this week, but he only put up 15 fantasy points last week against a Seahawks defense that ranks similarly to the Falcons. No thank you.
I’ll take Stafford who costs only $200 more and is playing in a game against the Jaguars with a higher over-under as of right now. I wouldn’t object to having shares of Gardner Minshew, either, who is similarly priced. But I’d rather have the guy with a higher propensity to throw the ball who also has better weapons.
Ronald Jones, TB RB - $5,800
I strongly considered Myles Gaskin and David Montgomery for this spot, both of whom are within $100 of Jones’s price tag. I landed squarely on Jones for a few reasons. His yards per carry average blows both of theirs out of the water this season and he’s getting just as many opportunities in the passing game as either of them. Jones reached 100 rushing yards twice in four days and now is coming off a week and a half rest. Leonard Fournette was active in the Bucs’ last game and didn’t receive a single carry, so there’s no reason to worry about him. The Packers are the second worst defense against fantasy running backs this season. I don’t think I need to defend this pick any more than that.
On a side note, make sure you get some shares of Alexander Mattison in DFS this week. He’s too expensive to be on my list of value plays, but you’ll get similar production to Dalvin Cook for a savings of $2,500. He should be in pretty much every cash lineup this Sunday.
Chase Claypool, PIT WR - $5,500
This guy went OFF in Week 5 with three receiving touchdowns and another one on the ground. This wasn’t some aberration; well, the touchdowns almost certainly were, but the playmaking ability wasn’t. His yards per catch last week was actually his lowest of the season. He’d been a big-play guy entering Week 5 and now he clearly appears to have Big Ben’s trust as he was targeted a team-high 11 times against Philadelphia.
Claypool isn’t going to give you 39 fantasy points again, but at that salary I’d be happy with his Week 2 numbers against Denver when he went 3-for-88 with a score, which is certainly within the realm of possibilities against a porous Browns defense with Diontae Johnson already ruled out of Sunday’s game.
Jonnu Smith, TEN TE - $5,800
It’s absolutely shocking to me that Smith’s salary hasn’t skyrocketed north of $6,500 by now. At under $6,000 it’ll be difficult to keep him out of any of my cash lineups unless I decide I just have to have the Stafford-Hockenson stack. With some of my other options this week, though, I can afford to grab Golladay if I really want a stack. Smith has been fantastic this year and the Titans passing offense has only gotten better week to week. He’s garnering nearly 7 targets a game and has done established himself as a safe floor, high ceiling tight end.
New York Giants - $3,900
The Giants needed that defensive touchdown last week to be worth starting in DFS after giving up 30 points to the Cowboys. The Washington Football Team isn’t capable of scoring that many points, their offensive line has regressed every week and gave up eight sacks a week ago, and Kyle Allen is more than capable of turning the ball over two or three times. If you absolutely have to save another $600, I also think the Bengals have a pretty favorable matchup against the Colts in what should be a low-scoring game.
Contrarian Value Pick Antonio Gibson, WAS RB - $5,800
Gibson went to Football Outsiders’ best running back by DYAR in Week 4 to their worst in Week 5. Coming off a dud performance, he won’t be in many lineups, but this is a plus matchup for him. Washington has to run the ball as much as they can to keep the ball out of Kyle Allen’s hands, and the Giants aren’t capable of putting up enough points to force Washington into a pass first approach any earlier than the fourth quarter, if at all. I expect a bounce-back game from Antonio Gibson this week.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Teddy Bridgewater 20.82 (2.93x $7,100 salary) [QB7 by value, QB8 by points]
James Robinson 7.5 (1.13x $6,600 salary) [RB28 by value, RB20 by points]
Robby Anderson 15.5 (2.5x $6,200 salary) [WR13 by value, WR14 by points]
Tyler Higbee 2.2 (0.36x $6,000 salary) [TE22 by value, TE19 by points]
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.0 (1.81x $4,400 salary) [DEF9 by value, DEF9 by points]
Kenyan Drake 12.7 (2.04x $6,200 salary) [RB12 by value, RB14 by points]
Week 5 Sunday Main results: 0-8 (-5.20 units)
2020 results: 14-28 (-6.13 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)