Cory’s Thanksgiving DFS Picks – 2020 Edition

It’s been a while since I had as successful a week on FanDuel as I did last week, but I finally put together another 8-0 week to put a solid dent in the deficit I’ve run to this point in the season.

Deshaun Watson wound up as the top fantasy scorer in Week 11’s Sunday main slate and Taysom Hill didn’t disappoint and, quite frankly, would’ve been well worth the start at quarterback, as well.
 
Justin Jefferson’s late touchdown saved an otherwise disappointing day. The Chargers underperformed but were still a top-third defense. And only Kareem Hunt was utterly disappointing and at least he scored a touchdown late (it would’ve been nice if he could’ve crossed the goal line on his first-quarter 4th & goal opportunity, though).
 
In all, including Watson and Hill, I had shares of seven of the top eight fantasy scorers on the FanDuel platform in Week 11!
 
Now I get a couple of opportunities to win some money back with some Turkey Day entries and another Sunday main slate this weekend.
 
So today I bring you value plays for tomorrow’s tripledouble-header* and then on Saturday I’ll have Sunday main recommendations so we can all try and make a lot of money in Week 12.

*The NFL announced about an hour before this article was published that Baltimore @ Pittsburgh would be postponed from Thanksgiving night to Sunday (time TBD).

 
Alex Smith, WAS QB - $6,700
If you have the money, Deshaun Watson is your start of the day for Thanksgiving. I’ll be sure to have at least a share of Ben Roethlisberger, too.
 
But between the two worthwhile options below 7k, I’ll take Smith over Dalton, who hasn’t impressed me in his action this season. Yes, he threw for three touchdowns this past week against a bad Vikings pass defense, but even with those three scores he didn’t top 20 fantasy points. Now he draws a matchup against a much tougher Washington defense.
 
Smith, meanwhile, looked good when he threw the ball in the second half against Cincinnati, he just didn’t have to throw very much. I expect a respectable performance from him on Thursday afternoon.
 
Duke Johnson, HOU RB - $6,100
I get that a lot of people are going to want to ride the Gus Bus, and do so at your own risk. I may have a share of him, but probably not more than one. I know he had a good game against Pittsburgh a few weeks back and now he’s the lone horse in that Baltimore backfield with Dobbins and Ingram on the COVID/reserved list. But Pittsburgh is a great run defense with a high variance, so the Ravens may have just caught them on an off week last time.
 
I’ll take Duke Johnson, who is coming off a rough game against the Patriots but gets one more chance to shine before David Johnson’s likely return from his concussion. It’s a pretty good matchup, too, against a Lions team that loves to give up rushing touchdowns.

Marvin Jones, DET WR - $6,000
With the news that the Thanksgiving nightcap between the Steelers and Ravens is being pushed to Sunday, Marvin Jones becomes a top three play for Thanksgiving Day and my highest ranked player below my value threshold of $6,800.

 

Dalton Schultz, DAL TE - $5,300
With another Steeler out of play, I'll turn to Dalton Schultz as he's my #2 projected tight end for Thursday behind T.J. Hockenson who is questionable. Assuming Hockenson remains on track to play, I do have him not only scoring more points than Schultz but also as a higher value, but only slightly, this is a good pairing to split fairly evenly between your entries.

Dallas Cowboys - $3,300
If you have the money, use Washington. I do have them projected for more points. But Dallas will give you more value on a points-per-dollars basis based on my expectations. I wouldn't even touch the Lions or the Texans tomorrow.

Contrarian Value Pick Steven Sims Jr., WAS WR - $4,600
Steven Sims is a super cheap option if you need it. In these contests with a smaller pool of games, you often won’t need such a cheap player, but if you do or if you’re in a GPP and need somebody nobody else will own, this just might be your guy. Aside from McLaurin, he’s been the most reliable target for Alex Smith. Sure, Cam Sims is still averaging more fantasy points per game, but he’s not the low-cost guy you want in this offense. Steven Sims is catching all of his targets over the past three weeks.
 
Last Week’s Value Plays
Deshaun Watson 31.36 (4.07x $7,700 salary) [QB1 by value, QB1 by points]
Kalen Ballage 10.6 (1.82x $5,800 salary) [RB15 by value, RB16 by points]
Justin Jefferson 16.1 (2.40x $6,700 salary) [WR12 by value, WR8 by points]
Taysom Hill 24.42 (5.42x $4,500 salary) [TE1 by value, TE1 by points]
Los Angeles Chargers 9.0 (2.00x $4,500 salary) [DEF8 by value, DEF7 by points]
Kareem Hunt 8.6 (1.28x $6,700 salary) [RB25 by value, RB22 by points]
 
Week 11 Sunday Main results: 8-0 (+4.37 units)
2020 results: 34-57 (-16.22 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)