I was a Terry McLaurin touchdown-saving tackle away from a big boost to my defense’s numbers on Thanksgiving. Instead, the Texans stole the show as the best low-cost option with JJ Watt’s interception and touchdown return. Thankfully, I had Washington in most of my lineups, as I indicated I would in Wednesday’s blog post.
Alex Smith had a rough game, too, as my value quarterback. I only used him in one lineup, so it didn’t hurt me too badly. Hopefully you all also knew that Deshaun Watson was by far the best value at QB on Turkey Day, even if his price as too high for me to include in my write-up.
With only two games on Thursday, there wasn’t as much need to find super value plays. Big scorers like Amari Cooper and Will Fuller, both of whom I had several shares of, weren’t so expensive as to prohibit you from enjoying other big money players like Watson and McLaurin.
The only player I went in heavy on, and wish I hadn’t, was Ezekiel Elliott, who I thought would have a good game against Washington. He didn’t. I also wish I had a couple more shares of Antonio Gibson than I wound up with.
In any case, despite only winning a quarter of my entries I made back nearly 70 percent of my entry fees, so I at least did a decent job of picking which contests to enter each of my lineups in.
As we move on to the Week 12 Sunday Main slate, keep in mind that the Ravens @ Steelers game has been moved from its Sunday 1:15pm spot. I’m not sure if it was ever included in the Sunday Main slate, but if it was and you’ve already reserved entries, be sure to replace those players pronto!
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR QB - $7,000
Healthy and drawing a great matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, Bridgewater should easily be a Top 10 QB for the week, and that includes Thursday’s big game by Deshaun Watson.
Now I’m going to hedge a little and let you all know that I have Matt Ryan ($7,600) projected to outscore Bridgewater by just a bit, but my projection for their points per dollar value has them both at 2.9x, so if you need the extra $600 to use elsewhere, Bridgewater is a great option! I’ll be looking to have shares of both of them tomorrow.
Nyheim Hines, IND RB - $5,700
Before I talk about the Colts’ running back situation, to be clear my value play at running back would be Austin Ekeler if there was any assurance that he’ll play tomorrow. As of noon on Saturday, when I’m writing this, we have yet to hear anything official. If he’s a go, I’m getting at least a couple shares of him. I think he’ll offer the most points per dollar of any running back under $6,800 in the Sunday Main slot.
This isn’t the best week to go cheap at running back, though. A lot of higher priced players have excellent matchups and you’ll want to take advantage of those where you can. The next best matchup for a value RB, behind Ekeler’s with the Bills, is the Colts against the Titans.
The problem here is Frank Reich’s “hot-hand” approach. Jonathan Taylor had the hot hand last week and finally provided strong value. Because of that, most projection sites I work off of have him as the only other value running back who will give his owners more than 2 points per thousand dollars on FanDuel.
But go back two weeks, the last time the Colts faced the Titans. It was Nyheim Hines who went off for 26 points using FanDuel’s scoring system. To be clear, I’m not taking Hines over Taylor here because of that game. I’m taking him because of their body of work this entire season. Taylor has had more than enough opportunities to gain Reich’s long-term trust and he hasn’t done so. Hines has had the hot hand more often than not, so I’m willing to bet that he’ll be the better Indy running back this week.
If you want to avoid the Indy situation all-together, I can’t blame you. Giovani Bernard ($6,100) and Wayne Gallman ($5,700) are my next two best values at the position.
*Note: I actually finished writing this article and we setting it to publish just before learning that Jonathan Taylor has been placed on the Colts’ Reserve/COVID-19 list and will be inactive tomorrow. Start Hines.
Robby Anderson, CAR WR - $6,400
The Bridgewater/Anderson pairing is a great play this week. Minnesota’s defense ranks 6th by DVOA against #2 wide receivers and 17th against #3 receivers, but it ranks an abysmal 31st against #1 wide receivers this season!
Now, Football Outsiders isn’t particularly transparent about how they determine which receiver on a team is the #1 and which is the #2, but Anderson has undoubtedly been the #1 for Carolina this season with D.J. Moore as the #2 receiver, not just by their targets and receptions but also by how they’ve been treated by opposing defenses through their first 11 games.
Austin Hooper, CLE TE - $5,100
If ever there was a week for Hooper to make a statement and show that last year in Atlanta, prior to his injury, was not a fluke, this is the week. The Jaguars allow the 4th most points per game to opposing tight ends. They rank 22nd in defensive passing DVOA against tight ends.
Hooper has scored only once all season, but I only have three tight ends in the Sunday Main slate projected for a better chance of scoring a touchdown than Hooper, and one of them is by a negligible margin.
New Orleans Saints - $4,800
Cheaper defenses this week are overpriced. Avoid them.
The Giants are an okay option with a low ceiling but fairly high floor this week. But the Saints are your best bet, followed by the Rams ($4,500), if you want higher sack totals and more opportunities for takeaways and potential defensive touchdowns.
Contrarian Value Pick Cole Beasley, BUF WR - $5,400
The Bills have a pretty good matchup against the Chargers, but people may freak out when they see that red “6th” above the OPRK (opponent rank) metric. The Chargers rank 7th in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers using FanDuel scoring, but consider who they’ve played. They faced the Bengals in Joe Burrow’s first career game, and since their bye week they’ve faced the Jaguars, Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins, and Jets, none of whom has a particularly intimidating corps of wide receivers.
With John Brown active the last time the Bills played on November 15 at Arizona, Beasley received 13 targets. Now John Brown has been ruled out and they face a Chargers defense that ranks just 29th against #2 receivers. Assuming Beasley fills that role, he’s an excellent start at a very cheap price.
Thanksgiving’s Value Plays
Alex Smith 9.06 (1.35x $6,700 salary) [QB4 by value, QB4 by points]
Duke Johnson 15.5 (2.54x $6,100 salary) [RB3 by value, RB3 by points]
Marvin Jones 7.8 (1.30x $6,000 salary) [WR6 by value, WR6 by points]
Dalton Schultz 4.9 (0.92x $5,300 salary) [TE3 by value, TE3 by points]
Dallas Cowboys 1.0 (0.30x $3,300 salary) [DEF3 by value, DEF3 by points]
Steven Sims Jr. 1.3 (0.28x $4,600 salary) [WR13 by value, WR13 by points]
Thanksgiving results: 2-6 (-1.60 units)
2020 results: 36-63 (-17.82 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)