It’s been tough sledding for me.
More than a month and a half has passed since I finished a week in the black, but I’ve at least won multiple entries in the past few weeks. I’ve got a lot of work to do to catch up and make up what I’ve lost through nine weeks.
I’m still in the game though. An unfortunate injury to Justin Jackson before he even logged a touch hurt my value picks last week, and Ryan Tannehill didn’t do nearly as well as expected.
But I had good picks with Jerry Jeudy as a Top 5 wide receiver and the Titans as the top scoring defense of the week.
So, I’m back with another slew of picks for you guys. Let’s make some money this Sunday!
Jared Goff, LAR QB - $7,400
There hasn’t been a more quarterback-friendly defense than the 2020 iteration of the Seattle Seahawks in recent memory. They’re a far cry from the Legion of Boom of yesteryear.
Goff’s Rams are coming off a bye and he’s spoken very highly this week of the energy in their locker room.
The good news here, too, is that those of you playing GPP games instead of cash games can also consider Goff. Even though it’s a juicy matchup that might attract a lot of interest, Goff hasn’t reached 20 points on FanDuel in more than a month.
Antonio Gibson, WAS RB - $6,100
I’m certainly a nervous of this play considering J.D. McKissic received 14 targets against the Giants, but the Lions aren’t a very good run defense and I think Washington will make a concerted effort to establish the run game this week after they did a half-assed job of it in Week 9.
There’s also the issue of there not being very many good matchups for running backs this week. The best matchup is easily the Bucs against the Panthers, but good luck deciding who to play between Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette.
John Brown, BUF WR - $5,600
Brown has been on and off the injury report, but he finally seems to be back to full health and is coming off a really nice game in which he had 11 targets and 8 receptions for 99 yards.
Granted, that did come against the Seahawks, but his matchup with the Cardinals isn’t a bad one. Stefon Diggs will still draw their top cover which may just leave John Brown available. It’s also worth remembering that Josh Allen has one of the best arms in the game and Brown is more than capable of taking the top off a defense now that he’s at 100 percent.
Evan Engram, NYG TE - $5,600
T.J. Hockenson would also be a good play this week, but I’ve used him a lot this season so I’m trying to spread the love. No doubt I’ll have him in at least one of my lineups.
Engram has enjoyed an enormous target share over his last three games, averaging just shy of 10 targets a game. Yes, he’s only catching a little more than half of them, but he’s got Daniel Jones’s attention. It’s also worth noting that Engram only has one game all season against a team in the bottom half of the league at defending tight end, and that was an aberration of a game in which he only saw two targets against the Cowboys. The Eagles are giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game to tight ends on FanDuel.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $4,200
If you have the salary space to use Pittsburgh, Green Bay, or Philadelphia, those are my top three defenses to use this week. New Orleans is also a decent play this week.
But if you need to save some more, the cheapest defense I’m willing to use this week is Tampa Bay. They’re still a good defense, but they have struggled the last two weeks and Carolina’s not a bad offense and isn’t the most likely candidate to give up a defensive touchdown. So yes, you can use them. But I would try to use some of those more expensive options. I know I won’t hesitate to leave Tampa out of my FanDuel entries this week.
Contrarian Value Pick Brandin Cooks, HOU WR - $6,300
The entire Houston offense is getting overlooked but their top two receivers, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, have certainly been fantasy relevant for the past few weeks. Cooks has three touchdown receptions in the past four games and is barely under 10 targets per game in that stretch (with at least nine in all four).
He’s also shown explosive play ability that we hadn’t seen from him in a few years, which makes me much more comfortable using him in a cash game.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Ryan Tannehill 14.62 (1.97x $7,400 salary) [QB19 by value, QB17 by points]
Justin Jackson 0.0 (0.0x $5,900 salary) [RB∞ by value, RB∞ by points]
Jerry Jeudy 22.0 (3.85x $5,700 salary) [WR3 by value, WR4 by points]
Hayden Hurst 9.7 (1.73x $5,600 salary) [TE10 by value, TE8 by points]
Tennessee Titans 14.0 (3.68x $3,800 salary) [DEF1 by value, DEF1 by points]
Adrian Peterson 5.8 (1.09x $5,300 salary) [RB30 by value, RB33 by points]
Week 9 Sunday Main results: 4-4 (-1.36 units)
2020 results: 25-50 (-17.19 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)