Cory’s Week 11 DFS Picks – 2020 Edition

Go figure that the week I don’t pick Matthew Stafford as a value quarterback he has a great game and the week he faces the Seahawks Jared Goff throws for all the yards but none of the touchdowns.
 
Evan Engram had an amazing catch in his game that would’ve pushed up the tight end board at least a few spots but Daniel Jones led him too far out of bounds and he couldn’t get a second foot in.
 
All in all, I had some decent plays in every lineup and I also had some massive duds, including most of my value plays. It culminated in one 50/50 win and losses in all my other entries, including my first double-up try of the year.
 

Deshaun Watson, HOU QB - $7,700
There aren’t a lot of value plays at QB I’m excited about this week, but Watson the best play under $8k in my min. Yes, the Patriots are a talented defense that have not been kind to fantasy quarterbacks, but Watson should be able to put up a decent game.
 
Houston is coming off a terrible offensive game in which they scored just one touchdown. I never expect a Deshaun Watson-led team to repeat such a poor performance. And just last week, New England allowed Lamar Jackson to rack up 22 fantasy points with what I would argue is a worse set of skill position players around him than Watson has in Houston.
 
I’ll also throw in that, unlike last week’s game against Baltimore, the Patriots have to play in Houston in a dome where the weather won’t assist in slowing down the opposing offense.
 
Kalen Ballage, LAC RB - $5,800
Ballage has led the Chargers backfield in rush attempts for two straight games. He was essentially given a tryout in Week 9 against the Raiders, was promoted to the active roster again against Miami, and now he’s set to be the Chargers primary back, at least until Austin Ekeler returns in a week or two.
 
Those concerned about Joshua Kelley should also note that Ballage received six targets and recorded five catches last week, so he’ll be a workhorse. And to make a good situation even better, his team is facing the Jets in a game even the Chargers couldn’t find a way to lose. Ballage should get plenty of carries in a cleanup role in the second half.
 
Justin Jefferson, MIN WR - $6,700
As usual, you can’t go wrong with any of Pittsburgh’s three receivers, who all cost between $6,400 and $6,500 on FanDuel, but I’m not in love with very many other value plays so give me a share or two of Justin Jefferson, the rookie who might never fall below the $6,800 threshold to be considered a “value” again after this week’s plus matchup against Dallas.
 
Jefferson has been fantastic this year. His week-to-week target share hasn’t been the most consistent, but he’s proven to be a reliable weapon for Kirk Cousins, who has quietly recorded the sixth best catchable pass rate in the NFL and is averaging a league-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Even if the Vikings have a return to the Dalvin Cook show on Sunday, Jefferson should have ample opportunity to cash in a few big plays.
 
Taysom Hill, NO TE - $4,500
That’s right, Hill is still listed as a tight end on FanDuel and thanks to his low price tag, he’s buried enough that other people entering lineups in your contests might forget about him.
 
There aren’t many top-notch tight ends playing during the 1pm and 4pm time slots this Sunday, so while you can certainly roll the dice with solid players like T.J. Hockenson, Hayden Hurst, and Hunter Henry, why not take the man who has been tasked with leading the Saints offense this week against a very beatable Falcons defense. It doesn’t get much better than legally cheating the system.
 
Los Angeles Chargers - $4,500
If you really need an extra $400, the Washington Football Team defense is also a good play this week, and as usual the Steelers are probably the best play all around but they’ll cost you the $5k max.
 
I really like the Chargers defense this week. I have them projected to be the second highest scoring defense behind only Pittsburgh, and while I do think the gap is big enough to make it worth it to jump up to the Steelers where you have the money to do so, a Chargers/Ballage stack is a viable play this week that will save you money and, I think, win you some money.
 
Contrarian Value Play Kareem Hunt, CLE RB - $6,700
Now that Nick Chubb is back, healthy, and has a big game under his belt, a lot of DFS players are likely to steer clear of Hunt. With the exception of the Browns game against Dallas on October 4, Hunt has never had fewer than 12 touches in a game this season, even when Chubb is healthy, and he still managed 19 fantasy points in that Dallas game.
 
In fact, just last week he had 100 rushing yards on 19 carries, the same number of rush attempts Chubb had. Now that both of them are healthy, I expect to see the Browns move fully back to being a run-first team and Hunt will continue to get plenty of work.
 
Last Week’s Value Plays
Jared Goff 10.48 (1.41x $7,400 salary) [QB17 by value, QB17 by points]
Antonio Gibson 20.5 (3.36x $6,100 salary) [RB6 by value, RB6 by points]
John Brown 10.2 (1.82x $5,600 salary) [WR21 by value, WR22 by points]
Evan Engram 2.5 (0.44x $5,600 salary) [TE23 by value, TE23 by points]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.0 (1.19x $4,200 salary) [DEF13 by value, DEF12 by points]
Brandin Cooks 6.9 (1.09x $6,300 salary) [WR41 by value, WR36 by points]

Week 10 Sunday Main results: 1-7 (-3.40 units)
2020 results: 26-57 (-20.59 units)

-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)