Last Sunday was rough, no doubt about it. I had plenty of studs spread through my lineups, including Derrick Henry, but not enough shares of any of them to lift more than the one lineup into the money.
Outside of David Montgomery and Brandon Aiyuk, my value plays flopped. It was definitely my worst performance of the season on that front.
So without further ado, let’s put Week 14 in the rear view mirror, cover the mirror with duct tape (don’t recommend actually doing this to your rear view mirrors) and move on to this week’s Sunday Main value plays.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI QB - $7,000
I know Trubisky is often viewed as a risky play, but at just $7000 and with a juicy matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, I love Trubisky this week. He’s got a great connection with Chicago’s best receiver, and their receivers are finding more free space in the middle of the field with opponents having to focus more on the trenches because of David Montgomery’s recent success.
D’Andre Swift, DET RB - $6,700
Speaking of David Montgomery, he was barely in the value conversation last week and his price went up by $700 on FanDuel. Frankly it was ridiculous that he wasn’t already well into the $7000s last week so good on FanDuel to catch up.
Swift, meanwhile, can still be a little boom or bust but he had a strong return from injury last week against Green Bay with 13 points and appears to have solidly taken over control as Detroit’s lead back moving forward. You might occasionally see some AP and Kerryon on the field, but against a Titans defense giving up more than 20 points per game to opposing running backs, there’s plenty there for Swift to get his.
Chad Hansen, HOU WR - $5,600
Hansen is a former practice squad receiver, as recently as three weeks ago, for the Houston Texans who has quickly gained Deshaun Watson’s trust in the absence of Will Fuller. He’s had two straight 7-target games to kick off his NFL career and with a player like Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball that’s a pretty great number for such a low price. This will free up a lot of salary space to have your pick of studs in the Sunday Main slate.
Keep in mind, this game against Indianapolis is a rematch from Hansen’s NFL debut where he recorded five receptions for 101 yards. Indy does have a good defense and gives up the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, so there’s a chance they could have a much better game plan for Hansen now that he’s seen him, but there aren’t a lot of other weapons at Houston’s disposal.
For what it’s worth, Hansen has my second highest projection among players under $6,800. My highest projection goes to his teammate Brandin Cooks, but it’s by less than a point and Cooks costs an extra $1k, giving Hansen the higher points-per-dollar value.
T.J. Hockenson, DET TE - $6,200
Hockenson has been terrific over the second half of the season and has received increased target volume every week over the past month so I feel comfortable projecting more than 10 targets this weekend against a Titans defense that hasn’t fared well against good opposing tight ends.
Los Angeles Rams - $5,000
I always hate having the most expensive defense as my value play, even though it’s allowed by my definition of a value play. But it is what it is this week. The Rams have my highest point projection and my highest point-per-dollar projection as they set to face the New York Jets at home.
This is part of the reason why I’m recommending a cheaper wide receiver option. But if you need a cheaper defense, the Cardinals ($4,300 vs PHI), Dolphins ($4,600 vs NE), and Seahawks ($4,500 at WAS) have my next three highest projections for the main slate.
Contrarian Value Pick Tre’Quan Smith - $5,000
Another cheap wide receiver for you, Tre’Quan Smith is certainly a risky play and therefore a very contrarian option.
It’s hard to project what will happen in week one of Drew Brees’s return to action. Smith has garnered a respectable six targets each of the past two weeks and seemed to have a good rapport with Taysom Hill. He also had some good performances with Brees earlier in the season.
On the other hand, Smith has had a tendency to disappear against good defenses and while Kansas City hasn’t been great against #2 receivers, which in this offense is Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500), they rank 10th in DVOA against receivers outside an opponent’s top two options.
Last Week’s Value Plays
Ryan Tannehill 16.48 (2.08x $7,900 salary) [QB16 by value, QB16 by points]
David Montgomery 23.0 (3.48x $6,600 salary) [RB5 by value, RB5 by points]
Margin Jones Jr. 6.8 (1.09x $6,200 salary) [WR48 by value, WR46 by points]
Hunter Henry 7.1 (1.26x $5,600 salary) [TE18 by value, TE16 by points]
Carolina Panthers 3.0 (0.88x $3,400 salary) [DEF17 by value, DEF17 by points]
Brandon Aiyuk 16.9 (2.52x $6,700 salary) [WR14 by value, WR11 by points]
Week 14 Sunday Main results: 1-7 (-5.10 units)
2020 results: 43-86 (-29.97 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)
Ryan Tannehill 16.48 (2.08x $7,900 salary) [QB16 by value, QB16 by points]
David Montgomery 23.0 (3.48x $6,600 salary) [RB5 by value, RB5 by points]
Margin Jones Jr. 6.8 (1.09x $6,200 salary) [WR48 by value, WR46 by points]
Hunter Henry 7.1 (1.26x $5,600 salary) [TE18 by value, TE16 by points]
Carolina Panthers 3.0 (0.88x $3,400 salary) [DEF17 by value, DEF17 by points]
Brandon Aiyuk 16.9 (2.52x $6,700 salary) [WR14 by value, WR11 by points]
2020 results: 43-86 (-29.97 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)