Cory’s Week 13 DFS Picks – 2020 Edition

Week 12 was another rough one for me, despite a decent selection of value plays. In additional to my official value plays listed at the end of this writeup, along with their value and point rankings from last week, I mentioned some other strong plays in last week’s article.
 
Austin Ekeler, in his first game back from injury, was a Top 10 scorer and Top 10 value play among running backs on FanDuel. Wayne Gallman also had a strong showing and had the 7th best value among running backs.
 
Meanwhile the Saints, my original defense suggestion, wound up with just one fewer point than the Rams defense, so both wound up as good choices (and I did keep one of my shares of the Saints even after my Sunday morning edit).
 
Meanwhile two of my other recommendations most certainly did not hit, those being Matt Ryan (who finished just a fraction ahead of Bridgewater) and Giovani Bernard.
 
In short, I think my new projection method is a keeper, but I missed out on some of the studs who went off on Sunday, especially guys like Mahomes and Hill.
 
Instead, I had shares of high-priced flops like Kyler Murray, Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Hopkins, and Darren Waller spread through all of my entries, which diminished my returns on strong starts like Ryan Fitzpatrick, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Travis Kelce.
 
Kirk Cousins, MIN QB - $7,300
Justin Herbert only costs $7,900 this week, and I don’t think the Patriots defense will give him too many problems, so I’ll definitely be grabbing shares of him on Sunday.
 
But if you need a cheaper option, Kirk is your man. Coming off two strong fantasy performances, including one without Adam Thielen at his disposal, Cousins draws a great matchup against the Jaguars.
 
If this was in Jacksonville, I might have some concerns about this being a potential trap game. But with the game in Minneapolis, I have no qualms starting him and you shouldn’t either.

David Montgomery, CHI RB - $6,200
Probably more of a cash play this week, Montgomery is coming of a big game against Green Bay in his return from a concussion that kept him out of action for almost a month.
 
Montgomery has been an underappreciated running back this season. He’s been an absolute workhorse in both the running and passing games and though the sexy stat lines haven’t often been there, he’s played one of the hardest schedules for a running back this season.
 
This week, though, he draws the Detroit Lions who are giving up an NFL-worst 30.7 points per game to running backs using FanDuel’s scoring. Montgomery gets all of the work in Chicago, so you’d be crazy not to start him this week.
 
Mike Williams, LAC WR - $5,800
It’s too expensive to pair Herbert with Keenan Allen, though if ever there was a week you could pull it off it might be this week. But you don’t have to, because I have Mike Williams ranked as my WR4 this week, behind Allen but not by enough to make it worth the extra $2,300 you’d have to spend.
 
That said, Williams’s low cost might even lend itself to the three-headed Chargers attack, which isn’t a bad play this week. New England’s defense ranks 19th against WR1s and 17th against WR2s this season according to Football Outsider’s proprietary DVOA rankings.
 
Adding to my comfort with Williams this week is that he’s coming off a 4-point game a week ago and hasn’t logged back-to-back single digit games since September.
 
T.J. Hockenson, DET TE - $6,100
A beast who has Matthew Stafford’s trust, Hockenson has been outstanding of late. His only bad game of the past month and a half came against a strong Washington defensive unit.
 
The Bears have an excellent defense, which is likely going to force the game script to get increasingly pass heavy as the game goes on, as if Stafford isn’t a pass-heavy quarterback already. And if there is one weakness the Bears defense has, it’s against the tight end position where they rank 21st in DVOA and 31st in FanDuel points allowed.
 
Green Bay Packers - $4,100
The Packers are my number two defense of the week by FanDuel scoring and they only cost $4,100? Yes please!
 
Carson Wentz takes sacks. Carson Wentz throws picks. Those two things combine to offer plenty of opportunities not just for small points but for potential defensive touchdowns.
 
If you absolutely need a cheaper option than this, the only cheaper defense I’d be willing to use is the Detroit Lions, but I have the Packers’ value well above theirs.
 
Contrarian Value Pick D.J. Chark, JAC WR - $6,300
I’m sure some readers are surprised not to see Brandin Cooks anywhere on this list. I actually do like Cooks this week since the Colts’ biggest weakness is against #1 receivers, which Cooks now is without question. But he doesn’t provide nearly the value of Mike Williams and the recency of Will Fuller’s suspension make it likely that Cooks will have somewhat high ownership on FanDuel this week.
 
So instead I give you D.J. Chark, my #15 WR and #23 flex option of the week by FanDuel scoring. His cost ranking is #22 among receivers and #41 among flex players, so there’s the value. As for the contrarian argument, he plays for Jacksonville, hasn’t had a double-digit fantasy game in four week, and is coming off a rib injury.
 
Last Week’s Value Plays
Teddy Bridgewater 14.88 (2.12x $7,000 salary) [QB10 by value, QB13 by points]
Nyheim Hines 13.5 (2.36x $5,700 salary) [RB12 by value, RB12 by points]
Robby Anderson 17.4 (2.71x $6,400 salary) [WR11 by value, WR8 by points]
Austin Hooper 8.3 (1.62x $5,100 salary) [TE9 by value, TE9 by points]
Los Angeles Rams 15.0 (3.33x $4,500 salary) [DEF4 by value, DEF4 by points]
Cole Beasley 8.3 (1.53x $5,400 salary) [WR26 by value, WR25 by points]
 
Week 12 Sunday Main results: 2-6 (-3.30 units)
2020 results: 38-69 (-21.12 units)
 
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)