I honestly feel a little foolish overlooking the New England Patriots as a candidate for my defensive value play.
While I certainly didn’t expect them to completely shut out Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense, we’ve been talking for weeks on The Sportsballers Podcast about how bad LA’s special teams unit is.
I had some pretty good projections for yesterday’s main slate, but my wide receivers missed horribly. Brandin Cooks, who I specifically declined to name as a value play, outscored both Mike Williams and D.J. Chark.
I was fortunate to have my best two value plays, Cousins and Montgomery, paired with the #1 fantasy scorer of the day, Darren Waller, in the lineup I submitted for my most expensive entry. So even though I lost most of my entries, I made back most of my money.
We’ve got a double-header this evening so I’m going to submit at least a couple of lineups with each of the following values showing up in at least one of them.
Nick Mullens, SF QB - $6,600
I really don’t like today’s QB options other than Josh Allen, and I’ll have him in all but one of my lineups tonight. Of the other three quarterbacks starting today, I’ll take my chances on Mullens.
Only six teams give up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Bills. And while the Bills pass defense has played better over the past three games than they did early in the season, they’re still a better matchup for Mullens than Washington is for Big Ben or Pittsburgh is for Alex Smith (who I whiffed on when I picked him as my Thanksgiving value play).
Antonio Gibson, WAS RB - $6,800
Boy is today a doozy for running backs. The Steelers give up the second fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Washington gives up the fifth fewest. San Francisco gives up the seventh fewest. And the running back getting all the work for the 49ers against Buffalo’s inconsistent run defense is too expensive for me to use as a value play.
Ultimately, I had to go with the best player. Buffalo can’t decide who to use on a weekly basis between Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, and it hasn’t been because they’re both good options. And Gibson is a far better athlete than Benny Snell and so I’ll live with J.D. McKissic inexplicably taking away some of Gibson’s touches in exchange for the upside of Gibson’s steady work in the short game and home run ability.
Deebo Samuel, SF WR - $6,200
I actually have Samuel’s teammate Brandon Aiyuk projected for the most points among WRs under $6,800 today, but I have Samuel right on his tail and he costs $400 less. You can bet I’ll use both in my lineups.
The two play very similar styles of football with a lot of short routes and jet sweeps. Not only does that give them plenty of touches, and therefore opportunities to give me points, but it also means good things for Nick Mullens’s stat line as this will be their first game on the field together since October 25 at New England.
Eric Ebron, PIT TE - $5,600
Jordan Reed draws the better matchup as far as points per game given up to tight ends by his opponent, but Washington’s pass defense DVOA against tight ends is way worse than Buffalo’s and Ben Roethlisberger has targeted Ebron 18 times in the past two games.
I think Ebron has the higher floor and the higher ceiling here and is worth the extra $600 compared to Reed.
Pittsburgh Steelers - $5,000
I know I don’t like to make the max defense my value play, but I’m going to today. I think Buffalo’s is a pretty good option if you want to go a different route because I do give them a slightly higher chance at a touchdown, but I have Pittsburgh far and away the better option both in total points and in points per dollar spent.
Contrarian Value Play Gabriel Davis, BUF WR - $4,800
I actually have projected as a Top 60 flex play for the week and he only costs $4,800. He’s not getting a ton of targets, but he’s a great deep threat for a quarterback who loves to throw deep and he’s got a great matchup this week.
San Francisco ranks 30th in defensive passing DVOA against #3 receivers and they’re middle of the pack against #2 receivers, so no matter how the 49ers choose to defend him and Beasley, Davis has a great shot at a few splash plays.
Yesterday’s Value Plays
Kirk Cousins 22.40 (3.06x $7,300 salary) [QB8 by value, QB9 by points]
David Montgomery 25.1 (4.04x $6,200 salary) [RB1 by value, RB1 by points]
Mike Williams 6.3 (1.08x $5,800 salary) [WR46 by value, WR48 by points]
T.J. Hockenson 11.9 (1.95x $6,100 salary) [TE8 by value, TE6 by points]
Green Bay Packers 10.0 (2.43x $4,100 salary) [DEF8 by value, DEF8 by points]
D.J. Chark 5.1 (0.8x $6,300 salary) [WR58 by value, WR52 by points]
Week 13 Sunday Main results: 2-6 (-1.5 units)
2020 results: 40-75 (-22.62 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)
