I’ve had some pretty rotten injury luck in DFS this season, exemplified perfectly by this past weekend. I grabbed Frank Gore in several lineups on Sunday because he was cheap and has been producing lately. He left immediately with a concussion.
Then Monday, Antonio Gibson got two carries and suffered a toe injury that knocked him out of the game and put a major dent in my evening on FanDuel.
Such is the risk of daily fantasy sports. In season-long fantasy football, you have fairly minimal roster turnover from week to week and you trust that you made wise choices in the draft on players who will have more good games than bad.
In DFS, you may go with very different groups of players from week to week and risk missing them on their boom weeks and using them when they bust. And if you enter too many diverse lineups to try and ensure you get the guys who boom, you also guarantee that you’re spending money on lineups that will bust and you’ll be lucky to break even. But too many eggs in one basket and the rewards can be great but so can the penalties.
Then again, maybe I should be looking at myself instead of finding somewhere else to place the blame. The words of a particularly wise TV dad come to mind.
In any case, we’ve got a few more weeks to go, plus the playoffs, and while it’s unlikely I’ll recovery all of my losses this season, I’ve already made enough money from season-long leagues to cover most of my DFS loses to date.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN QB - $7,900
Definitely more expensive than I’d like for my value quarterback, but I’m not liking many of the lower cost options. Taysom Hill always offers the rushing upside and Tom Brady is a strong option this week if Minnesota can keep that game competitive.
But neither of them compares to Tannehill this week. He draws an absolutely ideal matchup with the Jaguars who give up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 31st in defensive passing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. With Corey Davis breaking out over the past couple weeks, Tannehill has plenty of options and has looked much better throwing the football.
David Montgomery, CHI RB - $6,600
Yes, I know Montgomery was my value play last week. And no, he’s not your best option if you’re entering tournaments considering he’s coming off two straight 20-point performances. But do you want to see the list of teams who give up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Houston Texans?
Detroit Lions.
That’s it. That’s the list. And while Cordarrelle Patterson will get a few carries, Montgomery has been very productive with his touches since coming back from injury and I’ve nailed my projection for him both weeks, including two weeks ago when I correctly predicted I was in trouble in my season-long league because I had Alvin Kamara and expected a down week from him and my opponent had Montgomery. I lost to a 2-win team that day.
Marvin Jones Jr., DET WR - $6,200
According to Football Outsiders, Green Bay allows the third fewest pass attempts per game to #1 receivers, which Jones will be operating as with Kenny Golladay confirmed out once again this week. But that doesn’t tell the whole story here.
Green Bay only ranks 14th in defensive DVOA against #1 receivers, so they can be beat there when quarterbacks are willing to target them, and Stafford certainly is. Jones has received 12 targets in each of Detroit’s last two games and double-digit targets in three of the last four.
The Lions are coming off of maybe their best game offensively of the season last week against a good Chicago defense. I expect Marvin Jones to be able to contribute heavily in this game.
Hunter Henry, LAC TE - $5,600
At that price tag, Henry offers fantastic value. He had three straight games with at least 10 fantasy points before his team’s disaster against the Patriots last week.
Now he faces an Atlanta defense that gives up 13 points per game to tight ends and he comes in $400 cheaper than last week’s value play, T.J. Hockenson, despite my projection only having him a tenth of a point behind the breakout sophomore.
Carolina Panthers - $3,400
We have some great value options on defense this week. Certainly, the Saints and Cardinals offer high upside but they’re also the two most expensive of the week. For some reason the price tag for the Washington Football Team has come down significantly despite being my #2 projected defense of the week purely by fantasy points.
But coming in just a bit behind them and costing $500 less are the Carolina Panthers. I don’t expect Denver’s offense to be able to move the ball particularly well, the Panthers have done a great job of capitalizing on opponents mistakes lately, and they won’t be missing Shaq Thompson, their second leading tackler, after all since he was activated off the COVID-19/reserve list on Friday.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF WR - $6,700
Washington has a good defense, they give up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses using FanDuel scoring. It’s tough to know what to expect from Aiyuk from week to week because San Francisco has been so creative in how they get the ball in his hands. He can stretch defenses vertically. He’ll also run plenty of jet sweeps.
By DVOA, Washington’s secondary ranks dead last in the NFL against #1 receivers, which Aiyuk very well may be in this offense. Then again, maybe Deebo Samuel is the #1 receiver, in which case things get trickier in evaluating how Washington will perform against Aiyuk. They rank 4th against #2 receivers and 2nd “vs. Other WR,” according to Football Outsiders.
I think Aiyuk’s toolbox is vast enough not to be worried about where he ranks, either on San Francisco’s depth chart or among Washington’s priorities defensively. He’s an explosive, exciting player who might be overlooked by some DFS players this week.
Monday’s Value Plays
Nick Mullens 22.64 (3.43x $6,600 salary) [QB1 by value, QB2 by points]
Antonio Gibson 1.4 (0.2x $6,800 salary) [RB11 by value, RB11 by points]
Deebo Samuel 10.6 (1.7x $6,200 salary) [WR9 by value, WR8 by points]Eric Ebron 10.3 (1.83x $5,600 salary) [TE4 by value, TE4 by points]
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.0 (0.6x $5,000 salary) [DEF3 by value, DEF2 by points]
Gabriel Davis 14.3 (2.97x $4,800 salary) [WR3 by value, WR5 by points]
Week 13 Monday results: 2-4 (-2.25 units)
2020 results: 42-79 (-24.87 units)
-Cory Puffett (@CoryPuffett)
