In just a few days’ time, another champion will be crowned as this latest chapter in NFL history comes to a close. Notice we didn’t say “a new champion,” because neither starting quarterback will be hosting his first Lombardi Trophy. In fact, the last two were hoisted by the men set to lead their teams into battle on Sunday.
The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, led by head coach Andy Reid, underappreciated offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and Super Bowl LIV MVP Patrick Mahomes, will attempt to be the first team to repeat as world champs in more than 15 years.
Mahomes won the league MVP in 2018, ceded it to Lamar Jackson in 2019 but traded up for the ring, and now he’s coming off another terrific season. It didn’t end on the best note, he finished the year with six games with sub-100 passer ratings, four of them in December alone, but he’s turned it back on in the postseason and is coming off a stellar performance against a strong Buffalo Bills defense.
This is one of the best players in football. We’ve talked about him at length on the show and we love to bring up the fact that Kliff Kingsbury somehow coached this guy into being drafted behind Mitchell Trubisky; yes, THAT Kliff Kingsbury who got fired by his alma mater but still landed a head coaching job in the NFL.
And of course, Mahomes is complimented by an assortment of talent. Receiving weapons Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are among the best in the league at their respective positions, and good luck arguing that anybody is a better tight end than Kelce right now. He might wish he had Damien Williams in the backfield, but Darrel Williams has picked up the slack as Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s production has steadily decreased.
After a season of pretty disappointing performances from the defense, that’s turned around, as well. They just got done dominating one of the best offenses in the league and should be up for the challenge this Sunday.
It won’t be easy, though. Tom Brady is coming to play with his new team and will look to be the first starting quarterback to lift the Lombardi Trophy while representing two different conferences. He’d only be the second to do so with two different teams, though (Cory insisted on pointing out at least one thing Peyton Manning will always have on Brady).
Brady has been unstoppable throughout his career and now he’s coming off a season in which he was the best in the entire NFL on deep throws. Look at any metric, on passes that traveled 20 yards or farther through the air nobody was better than the 43-year-old.
It certainly took some time for this offense to gel. Early in the season, Tampa Bay was carried by their defense, which got significantly worse with the loss of Vita Vea. But the offense found its rhythm, Antonio Brown has seemingly found a meaningful role in the offense recently, and Vita Vea is back. Suddenly, everything seems to be coming up Tampa.
This is going to be an exciting matchup, so let’s get to our hosts’ thoughts and predictions on the game plus 10 prop bets between Eric and Cory. You can also find our season-long contest standings at the end of the writeup and they’ll be updated upon the conclusion of Sunday’s game.
For those playing along, we’re picking a winner and a margin of victory. Your confidence points haul for this game will be 16 points for picking the right winner minus the difference between the actual margin of victory and your predicted one. Simple enough, right? Let’s get to it!
Evan Ash
Both of these teams deserve to be in this position and I am predicting a close game. It will be a back-and-forth shootout of a game and the Chiefs offense gives them the edge. They have looked unstoppable this postseason and have only failed to score points on drives because of their own mistakes.
The Buccaneers defense will be able to generate pressure with four rushers and that is really their only hope. On the other side of the ball, it will come down to the Buccaneers ability to execute on offense as the Chiefs defense isn’t very good.
This Tampa Bay team has not had nearly the practice time or game repetitions needed to perform flawlessly, and in a game as close as I am predicting, the smallest detail can make all the difference.
Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs – 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 31
MVP: Patrick Mahomes II
Eric Meyer
The Chiefs feel inevitable at this point. Despite a litany of injuries to their offensive line, their offense appears to be unstoppable. Tyreek Hill is impossible to cover for any human on planet Earth, and Travis Kelce isn’t too far behind him. Having to cover both would be a chore for any secondary, and Tampa Bay’s vulnerability on that side of the ball has been their back four.
The Buccaneers stuff the run and can get pressure on the quarterback, but Mahomes’ elusiveness combined with the most dynamic group of weapons the NFL has seen in a generation will turn this game into a track meet. The question is whether Tampa’s own stable of studs can keep up when their offense is on the field.
Unfortunately for Tompa Bay, I don’t see them keeping pace with the Chiefs. I believe Tampa Bay has the better overall roster on paper, but the experience and continuity that the Chiefs have is going to create a decisive advantage for them. The Bucs have put together some impressive performances, but never put together a 60-minute game on offense.
I had high hopes for them when they blew the doors off of Green Bay in the first half of the NFC Championship game, but then they stunk the joint up in the second half, reaffirming my concern that they’re still not quite a well-oiled machine.
I think they could get there next year with some more time to build chemistry, but right now they’re still prone to going cold and looking out of sorts for multi-drive stretches. Any type of extended lull will be a death sentence when playing the Chiefs, and I think it’ll be Tampa’s funeral on Sunday evening.
Kansas City repeats, and it will not be close.
Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs – 38, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 21
MVP: Patrick Mahomes II
Cory Puffett
It’s my third year in a row since resuming my Madden-based Super Bowl predictions. My game in 2019 incorrectly gave the Rams a Super Bowl victory against Tom Brady’s New England Patriots before my 2020 game correctly gave Patrick Mahomes his first Lombardi Trophy. That Madden edition ended 49-35; the real game score was 31-20. The scores aren’t always correct, but I was only three points off on the point differential last year!
I normally control the team I’m rooting for in the first half, but for this year’s edition I don’t have a real preference so I decided to “root” for the first ever true home team the Super Bowl has ever seen. I led the Tampa Bay Bucs to a 13-7 halftime lead thanks to a 1-yard, fourth down touchdown run by Leonard Fournette and a pair of Ryan Succop field goals. Fournette was also turned away on another fourth down run from the 1-yard line midway through the second quarter.
The second half saw a heavy dose of Ronald Jones in the run game and lockdown defense by Tampa Bay. Mike Evans added an insurance score on a 71-yard touchdown on a well-executed corner route against Cover 1 defense and the Bucs took a 22-7 lead into the final quarter.
The Chiefs finally started moving the ball on offense, but not consistently enough. With just under 10 minutes to play, Patrick Mahomes found Tyreek Hill on a 4th & 1 slant route and Hill found a seam to take it the distance for a 68-yard touchdown. The Chiefs had two more opportunities and moved into scoring range both times, but the first ended with a Patrick Mahomes interception into the end zone and the second ended in a failed fourth down conversion.
Do I think a 14-point Bucs win a likely scenario? Not particularly. As I talked about on the podcast Wednesday (and then again Thursday in the version with audio our audience could actually hear), I think a close game is much more likely. But this is how my game went and I stick to the results every year.
Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 28, Kansas City Chiefs – 14
MVP: Tom Brady
Notable players from Cory’s Madden sim:
Passing
· Tom Brady (25-36, 386 yards, TD)
· Patrick Mahomes (26-41, 429 yards, TD, INT)
Rushing
· Ronald Jones II (25 carries, 102 yards)
· Leonard Fournette (11 carries, 38 yards, TD)
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire (8 carries, 26 yards)
· Darrel Williams (3 carries, 8 yards, TD)
Receiving
· Mike Evans (7 catches, 193 yards, TD)
· Chris Godwin (10 catches, 148 yards)
· Tyreek Hill (7 catches, 218 yards, TD)
· Travis Kelce (8 catches, 62 yards)
Defense
· Carlton Davis III (3 tackles, INT)
· Jason Pierre-Paul (5 tackles, 3 sacks)
· Anthony Hitchens (12 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 PD)
· Frank Clark (9 tackles, 2 sacks)
Prop Bets
Eric and Cory had so much fun making and tracking prop bets during Super Bowl LIV, they’ve decided to run it back in 2021! They made this year’s prop bets on Wednesday’s episode of The Sportsballers Podcast, which you can listen to on iTunes, Amazon, Google, and Spotify!
Here are our 10 prop bets in the order they were made on the show, including potential winnings on each side based on the $5 per bet each is putting up on bets of even odds.
1. Will Patrick Mahomes throw an interception? (+125 yes, -165 no)
Cory beat Eric in Evan’s “List the many names of Miami’s football stadium” contest on the show, and he selected the first prop bet, taking the over on 0.5 Mahomes INTs.
Cory stands to win $6.25 from Eric, but if Mahomes can manage to go the entire game without an interception, Eric will get $3.03 from Cory.
2. Will the first offensive play be a run (-120) or a pass/sack (+100)?
Eric selected next and took the pass play on this line. He’ll earn $5.00 from Cory if he’s right, otherwise Cory will take $4.17 from Eric.
3. Will the first team to score win the game? (-170 yes, +130 no)
With Cory’s next pick in the prop bet pool, he predicts that the first team to score will not hold on to win Super Bowl LV, despite the fact that the Bucs scored first and won in his prediction game. He preferred to go where there was higher potential profit here.
If he’s right, Eric will owe him $6.50, but if the first to score does win he’ll have to send $2.94 Eric’s way.
4. Will it take over (+105)/under (-145) 1:59 for Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church to sing the National Anthem?
Eric figures if we’ve gotta sit through it, we may as well make some money on it. He took the over here and stands to earn $5.25 if he’s right. While the last three Super Bowls have all seen anthems at less than two minutes, Super Bowl XL was the last time a duet sang it and Aretha Franklin and Aaron Neville took 2:08 to get through it.
If this duet can keep it a bit more succinct, Cory will win $3.45 from Eric.
5. Will the game be tied after 0-0? (-150 yes, +130 no)
Cory selected this prop bet next, once again to get the potential payout as he has taken the “no.”
Out of 54 previous Super Bowls, only 22 of them have seen the score tied after 0-0, but it’s happened in a record four consecutive years entering this season’s game. The previous record was three straight between Super Bowl XXXVI through XXXVIII.
If Cory is right and this year breaks that streak, he’ll win $6.50 from Eric. Otherwise, Eric will take $3.33 from this prop bet.
6. Will Tom Brady throw an interception? (-190 yes, +145 no)
Eric decided to go with the under here for the potential earnings even after Brady threw a few terrible INTs in the conference championship. Brady had thrown no picks in his first two playoff games as a Buc.
He officially takes the under on both QBs at 0.5 INTs so he’s hoping for a clean Super Bowl from a turnover standpoint, at least in the passing game.
If Brady can avoid any catastrophic mistakes, Eric stands to win $7.25 from Cory for this bet. Cory’s earnings are limited to just $2.63 if Brady throws a pick.
7. Will the Bucs (+110) or Chiefs (-130) be the first to score?
Cory is taking the Bucs to put Super Bowl LV’s opening points on the board, both for the payout and because it’s what happened in his Madden sim on Wednesday.
If the Bucs are the first to score, he’ll win $5.50. If the Chiefs open Sunday’s scoring, he’ll send $3.85 Eric’s direction.
8. Will the shortest TD be over (+125)/under (-155) 1.5 yards?
Eric is taking the over, which suits Cory just fine. Though the payout isn’t great, the Bucs have scored 12 times from the 1-yard line in their 19 games this season and they did so in his Madden sim. The Chiefs only did it seven times in their 18 games, but they have three scores from the 1-yard line in their two postseason games!
If Eric is right, though, and neither team punches it in from that close, he’ll earn a $6.25 payout from Cory, otherwise he’ll owe $3.23.
9. Will the Bucs (+105) or Chiefs (-145) be the first to 10 points?
Cory once again went with his Madden sim, which had the Bucs not only as the first to 10 points but had them reaching 20 points before the Chiefs scored 10. It’s not an enormous payout, but he stands to gain $5.25 if he’s right, otherwise he’ll cough up $3.45.
10. Over (+145)/under (-190) 7.5 total TDs
Eric’s prediction has the Chiefs winning 38-21, which would imply eight touchdowns, so no surprise he took the over here. Cory’s prediction is 28-14 Bucs, which would imply six touchdowns, though the Bucs actually had some field goals in his sim.
Eric will win $7.25 from Cory if his projection holds true, otherwise he’ll have to kick $2.63 to Cory for this final prop bet.
Totals
Adding up all these prop bets, a 10-0 record for Cory will net him $46.11 from Eric. A perfect sweep in the other direction would see Eric taking $47.60 from Cory.
Last year’s prop bets saw a much bigger edge in potential earnings, but when all was said and done only $5.00 changed hands, in favor of Cory. He won props 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7 while Eric won the other five (you can see all of our prop bets in last year’s writeup here.
And with that, we’re all set for Super Bowl Sunday! Enjoy!
Fan Leaderboard through Super Bowl
1. James Dailey – 1572 points (175-94) – 0-2 Conf. Champs, 0-1 SB LV
2. Sean Kennedy – 1562 points (179-90) – 0-2 Conf. Champs, 1-0 SB LV
3. Andrew Perez – 1547 points (184-85) – 2-0 on Conf. Champs, 1-0 SB LV
Standings
SB LV | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Points | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Record | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
Season | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Points | 1562 | 1590 | 1562 |
Record | 182-87 | 183-86 | 177-92 |
Playoffs | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Points | 99 | 72 | 88 |
Record | 8-5 | 7-6 | 9-4 |
Lone Wolf | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Games | 16 | 12 | 23 |
Wins | 11 | 8 | 13 |
-The Sportsballers (@Sportsballers18)