The Los Angeles Rams will be the second team ever, and the second in as many seasons, to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Unlike the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, however, the Rams will be playing as the de facto road team for the big game.
The last time the Rams played in the Super Bowl was in February of 2019 when they lost in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time. The Rams became just the second of now three teams to fail to score a touchdown in a Super Bowl and tied the record for fewest points scored in Super Bowl history, with a 53-yard Greg Zuerlein field goal being their only score.
That 13-3 win for the New England Patriots, Brady’s sixth and last Super Bowl victory as a member of the organization, was a stain on Sean McVay’s early career as the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams.
The issue wasn’t that McVay lost to arguably the greatest coach in league history. Rather, the stain came from the fact that his highly touted offensive unit, one that put up 54 points that November in one of the most thrilling games in NFL history, managed only a single field goal, kicked from more than 40 yards shy of the goal line, in the biggest game of the year.
Super Bowl LVI will be an opportunity for McVay to re-earn the legacy so many analysts seemed ready to give him when he made Jared Goff look like a Top 10 quarterback.
On the other side of the draw, the Cincinnati Bengals improved to 3-0 all-time in the AFC Championship game with their impressive come-from-behind 27-24 victory against the Chiefs two weeks ago.
They now prepare to make their first appearance in the championship since Super Bowl XXIII. That January 1989 evening saw the Bengals lose to the 49ers for the second time in the Super Bowl, both times by one-possession margins.
In that game, a 40-yard field goal by Jim Breech gave Cincy a 16-13 lead with 3:20 remaining in the fourth quarter before Joe Montana led an 11-play, 92-yard drive with John Taylor’s 10-yard touchdown reception coming with just 34 seconds to play.
Anthony Cris Collinsworth, the three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver who played in both of Cincinnati’s previous two Super Bowl appearances, retired after that game. Now he’ll be a part of Cincinnati’s third trip to the Super Bowl, this time in the booth. NBC will broadcast it’s 20th Super Bowl this year and Collinsworth will join Al Michaels on the call.
The 2021 Bengals have been a fun, if inconsistent, team to follow. This is a team that had little trouble blowing out the Ravens twice by a combined score of 82-38 and won a thrilling Week 17 game against the Chiefs. They’re also a team that got blown out by the Chargers 41-22 in early December and by the Browns 41-16 a month prior to that.
But they’ve made it to the Super Bowl on the strength of three playoff victories, all by seven points or less. Their Wild Card win against the Raiders was fairly expected, but then they beat the AFC’s #1 seed, the Titans, in the Divisional round and, two weeks ago, the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVI, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Zac Taylor, entering this season, was 6-25-1 as the Bengals head coach. Joe Burrow, the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, lost the final six games of his rookie season to a torn ACL and MCL. Then, instead of a desperately-needed offensive lineman, the team selected wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the first round of the 2021 draft.
In short, nobody had any clue what to expect of the Bengals this year. It hasn’t always been pretty, but they’ve proven that they have a terrific foundation. Win or lose, the Bengals are set up for long-term success.
Once their salary cap rollover is added to next year’s cap, Cincinnati is expected to have around $58 million in cap space with more to come with one or two players expected to be released in the offseason. This is a very young team with a significant percentage of their roster still playing on rookie deals for at least another year or two.
Now that we’ve set the stage, let’s get our hosts’ thoughts and predictions on the big game. At the end of this article you can also find this year’s set of 10 prop bets between Cory and Eric plus the season-long confidence points contest standings. This week’s confidence points will be worth 16 points minus the difference between each of our predicted margins of victory and the actual margin of victory.
Evan Ash
On paper, the Los Angeles Rams are a better football team than the Cincinnati Bengals in most if not all areas. It is only a close comparison between the special teams units and the quarterbacks.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford has performance as expected during these playoffs, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has carried his team on a magical run to an AFC championship. Burrow makes up for the Bengals’ bad offensive line with his overwhelming confidence and positivity.
In the Divisional Round, Burrow was sacked nine times and still found a way to win. The next week, in the AFC Championship game, Burrow was outrunning Chiefs defenders to gain yards on a surgically repaired knee.
Unfortunately, Burrow will not be able to overcome all of his team’s roster deficiencies this week against the Rams (although they will keep it close).
The Rams defensive front is so much better than the Bengals offensive line and this matchup will most likely decide the outcome of the game.
Defensive tackle Aaron Donald regularly dominates good offensive lines and the Bengals line is in for a long afternoon. Outside linebacker and Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller is also a formidable pass rusher.
Football games are won and lost in the trenches and this game will serve as proof.
Final Score: Los Angeles Rams - 38, Cincinnati Bengals - 31
MVP: Cooper Kupp
Eric Meyer
This game feels like a bit of a mismatch on paper, with the Rams boasting their loaded roster of future hall of famers and their high-profile veteran quarterbacks, while the Bengals are the plucky underdogs who nobody saw coming. I mean it. Nobody saw them coming, and if they say so they’re either lying or have had a few too many bowls of Skyline Chili.
It has been a safe bet to pencil the Rams into a playoff spot since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017. LA has made the playoffs in four out of the last five seasons and narrowly missed in 2019, finishing 9-7.
Their peak of success had been winning the NFC three years ago, in what could’ve easily been a coronation of the NFL’s next young genius. Unfortunately, the league’s grandmaster had other plans, and McVay’s creative, vaunted offense was stymied by Bill Belichick’s defense as the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3.
McVay admits to being humbled by the Rams’ (lack of) performance, and has since pulled every switch possible to maximize his team’s window.
Some of the faces have changed, but most of the strengths are still there. The Rams still have the best defensive player of the century in Aaron Donald. They have the NFL’s premier cornerback and receiver. They’ve added other valuable pieces with Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. making significant contributions throughout this postseason. They’re absolutely loaded, and deserve their status as favorites in Sunday’s game.
The Bengals don’t quite have that same shine just yet. Prior to this season, Cincinnati hadn’t won a playoff game since 1991. They went 2-14 just two years ago, which “earned” them the right to draft Joe Burrow with the first overall pick.
Burrow was asked to do far too much for a rookie playing behind a bad offensive line and, and he suffered an ACL tear against Washington in the middle of an impressive rookie campaign.
The Bengals responded by drafting Burrow’s former college teammate, standout WR Ja’Marr Chase, who has immediately emerged as an all-pro weapon. I believe I had that one. Evan did, too.
Anyway, this duo fueled Cincinnati’s offense along with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and running back Joe Mixon, despite the continuous struggles of Cincy’s offensive line.
Burrow has earned a reputation for being unflappable, and it’ll be very difficult to pick against him despite the Bengals’ numerous disadvantages against Los Angeles.
There are two factors that will decide this game. Firstly, Cincinnati needs to provide some semblance of protection for Burrow against LA’s pass rush. We’ve seen wizard-like performances from young quarterbacks even when they don’t get adequate protection, but that fortune runs out if there’s absolutely no resistance. Patrick Mahomes found that out this time last year.
Burrow has the goods to make magic happen if the Bengals can buy him just a few opportunities, either through scheme or elevated play, but it’s difficult to see Joey B having a productive evening if he’s on his back nine times again.
The other factor is Matthew Stafford, who toiled away in Detroit for over a decade despite playing some high-level football. But he never reached the heights of an elite quarterback, either. He has a strong arm and he’s tough as nails, but he slips into some inaccuracy and poor decision-making at times.
These moments cost LA a shot at the top seed and nearly ruined their playoff run when Stafford gift-wrapped an interception to the 49ers, only to be bailed out by a stone-handed defensive back.
Matt will likely have some wiggle room in this contest, but he cannot become a disaster artist if he wants to win this game. He’s got the ability, and he’s got the team. He just needs to be consistent for 60 minutes.
If you listen to the podcast, and you should because it rules, you know how worried I am about Zac Taylor’s ability to protect his quarterback through scheme. He’s failed to do so all year, so it’s going to require some out-of-body experience to get Burrow time in the pocket.
I also believe that Stafford and the Rams have had their hiccups and were able to survive them against Tampa Bay and San Francisco, and I’m expecting something close to a clean performance from them.
With all that being said, I can’t deny the Burrow magic. This feels like LaRusso vs Lawrence. It might feature some voodoo healing magic, and illegal kick, and some heavy plot armor, but I’m taking the underdog Bengals in this one.
Maybe Joe Burrow can join Eli and get a Death Row Records chain from the D-O-Double G to go along with his Super Bowl MVP.
Final Score: Cincinnati Bengals - 27, Los Angeles Rams - 20
MVP: Joe Burrow
Cory Puffett
I love the lead up to the Super Bowl. Just two teams remain and it becomes so much easier to research the two teams in depth to come up with, hopefully, an accurate prediction.
This year I’m doing it without the help of Madden for the first time since Super Bowl LII. I’m 2-2 all-time when making my prediction without Madden (14-7 overall), and I absolutely would have gotten Super Bowl LV wrong if my prediction game hadn’t inexplicably resulted in a 28-14 victory for the Buccaneers (they wound up winning by an additional eight points).
Super Bowls matchups are usually tough to gauge. Obviously both teams are very good to have gotten this far. But often times you have to really dig deep into the analytics to find advantages you can consider while making your prediction.
This year, though, the advantages are right there on the surface. DVOA is a metric created by Football Outsiders that attempts to show teams’ offensive and defensive success rates compared to the league average and adjusted for the quality of their opponents. While it isn’t always the most useful metric for individual game predictions, it is great for following trends and understand teams’ strengths and weaknesses.
I’m rooting for the Bengals in this game and offense is more fun, so let’s take a look first at how the Bengals offense matches up with the Rams defense.
Cincy has improved drastically since their Week 10 bye on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve continued to play well in the playoffs, but there’s been a clear decline in success rate in these past three games, particularly in the passing game which is this offense’s strength. Joe Mixon is a good running back, but thanks in large part to a poor offensive line, their DVOA numbers in the run game are middle of the pack.
The Rams defense, meanwhile, began the season in the middle of the league and then saw a dramatic improvement against both the run and the pass following their Week 11 bye. In the playoffs, they’ve only gotten better. Against the pass they’ve sported a -43.9% DVOA in the postseason (you want a positive DVOA on offense and a negative DVOA on defense, and -43.9% is outstanding)!
In this matchup, there is a clear and obvious advantage in favor of the Rams. Bummer.
Let’s switch sides and look at how the Bengals defense stacks up against the LA offense.
Los Angeles really struggled after their bye week. Their strength through most of the season, like the Bengals’ offense, was the passing game and their DVOA ranking dropped from 4th prior to their bye week to 12th down the stretch. That’s still above average in the league, but it’s not what you expect from a Super Bowl contender.
In the playoffs, though, they’ve been incredible in the pass game. Even in their low-scoring, 20-17 victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship game, they sported a 35.1% offensive passing DVOA because the success they had came against a well-respected, high-performing defensive unit.
LA’s run offense has been the second worst out of the 14 teams that qualified for the playoffs, but the passing game has been so strong that they still rank 3rd in total offensive DVOA this postseason!
The Bengals also showed improvement against both the run and the pass after their Week 10 bye, but they still ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively. In the playoffs, their pass defense, their weakness in the regular season, has actually been pretty strong with a -14.9% DVOA. The run defense, meanwhile, which was in the top half of the NFL through the regular season, ranks 13th out of 14 playoff teams this postseason.
Overall, their defense did improve in January, but not nearly to the extent of the Rams offense. So, once again, the Rams have a marked advantage.
It seems pretty obvious then that the Rams should win this game. As long as Matthew Stafford avoids costly turnovers, which he’s done this postseason with just one interception in his three games, the offensive will be nearly unstoppable.
Defensively, the Rams don’t have many weaknesses to exploit. Their secondary has been fantastic and their defensive line, led by maybe the greatest defensive lineman of all time and certainly of my generation, should consistently overpower the Bengals offensive line.
If there is one area the Rams defense has struggled in, it’s defending the intermediate pass in the middle of the field, an area in which the Bengals can be very successful even if C.J. Uzomah isn’t effective or can’t play at all.
But Raheem Morris is a terrific defensive coach and he can absolutely find ways to cover for his linebackers’ lackluster pass coverage ability. The question, then, is whether Zac Taylor, Brian Callahan, and Joe Burrow can find the weaknesses that will inevitably open up if LA makes that adjustment.
As much as I like Joe Burrow and don’t believe for one moment that he’s out of his depth in this game, I don’t have much faith in Zac Taylor as an NFL head coach, much less one capable of overcoming this sort of disadvantage in the Super Bowl. I’ll be thrilled for Cincy if they can pull it off, but I just don’t see it.
Final Score: Los Angeles Rams - 31, Cincinnati Bengals - 17
MVP: Matthew Stafford
Prop Bets
Cory and Eric are back at it for a third year in a row! Cory won $5 from Eric in their Super Bowl LIV prop bets two years ago and then another $9.01 last year. Let’s see if Eric can cut into that deficit this year.
Here are our 10 prop bets in the order they were made on the show. As in the past, even odds bets are worth $5 and we’ll include potential winnings for both Cory and Eric based on the odds they get for each prop.
1. Will over (+130)/under (-160) 2.5 players attempt a pass in the game?
Evan’s contest for Eric and Cory was to guess how many different roller coasters he has ridden in his life. Cory guessed 103 while Eric guessed 86. The correct answer was 112. Cory was the closest so he picked the first of our 10 prop bets and selected the over.
Cory stands to win $6.50 from Eric if at least one player besides Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow attempt a pass. If it winds up just being those two, Eric will win $3.13.
2. Will there be a sack (-135) or a touchdown (+105) first? Eric +$3.70
With his first selection, Eric settled on this prop and went with the betting favorite, figuring that there will be plenty of opportunities for either team to record a sack before the first touchdown.
If he’s right, he’ll win $3.70 from Cory, otherwise he’ll have to shell out $5.25.
3. Will Cooper Kupp score a touchdown? (-180 yes, +150 no)
Cory usually jumps all over the props he likes the underdog on, but he’s convinced this is a slam dunk. He also took the over on Kupp and Chase combining for at least two touchdowns in our ESPN Playoff Pick ‘em contest.
If Kupp reaches the end zone Sunday night, Cory will earn $2.78, while Eric stands to earn $7.50 if the Bengals can keep the NFL’s best wide receiver of 2021 away from pay dirt.
4. Will there be a score in the final 3.5 minutes? (-165 yes, +145 no)
With his second pick, Eric took another favorite. We’re defining the final 3.5 minutes as the last 3.5 minutes of play, including overtime should we see it for just the second time in Super Bowl history.
Eric can win $3.03 from Cory if there is a score in the closing minutes on Sunday. Cory would get a modest haul of $7.25 if both teams can keep each other off the board late.
5. Will there be over (-150)/under (+120) 6.5 punts in the game?
Cory picked a moderately high scoring game, expecting 48 points in total. Because of that, he figures there probably won’t be a ton of punting.
He took the under with the potential to win $6.00 if he’s right. As soon as a seventh punt takes place, however, Eric would earn $3.33.
6. Will Matthew Stafford (-140) or Joe Burrow (+110) throw a touchdown first? Cory +$3.57
Eric picked the Bengals to win the game, granted only because Cory took the Rams and it’s the only realistic way Eric can catch Cory in our confidence points contest. That said, he also expects the Bengals to get off to a hotter start, so he took Joe Burrow.
If he’s right, Cory will owe Eric $5.50, otherwise $3.57 will trade hands in the other direction.
7. Will it take over (-130)/under (+110) 1 minute 35 seconds for Mickey Guyton to sing the National Anthem? Cory +$3.85
As always, if we have to sit through it we may as well put some money on the line. Cory selected this prop and took the over, figuring 95 seconds would be a torrential pace for a Super Bowl. For context, singing at a traditional cadence, it takes Cory about 70 seconds to sing the National Anthem. Last year, Jazmine Sullivan and Eric Church took more than two minutes and the last time a singer hit this under was Kelly Clarkson’s 1 minute 34 second rendition in 2012.
If Mickey Guyton takes at least 96 seconds, Cory will win $3.85, but if he’s wrong and she sprints through it, Eric will take $5.50 from him.
8. Will the first team to score win the game? (-190 yes, +145 no)
Eric went with the potential earnings on this one. The first team to score in the Super Bowl is 36-19 all-time, but 0-2 in the last two years. Eric hopes the Rams score first and he gets this right.
If Eric is correct, he stands to add $7.25 to his wallet, otherwise he’ll pay Cory $2.63.
9. Will there be more points scored in the first half (+115) or in the second half + overtime (-145)?
With Cory’s final selection, he chose this one and predicted that the two teams will get off to a hot start and the scoring will slow down after the intermission.
Cory will happily take $5.75 of Eric’s money if he’s correct, otherwise he’ll have to give up $3.45.
10. Will the Rams (-170) or the Bengals (+125) be the first to 10 points?
And with the final prop, Eric was left with this selection. He took the Bengals and the potential earnings, primarily based on his earlier bet that Joe Burrow will throw a touchdown before Matthew Stafford does.
This prop bet will net Eric $6.25 if the Bengals get off to a hotter start than the Rams, otherwise he’ll cough up $2.94.
Totals
Adding up these prop bets, Eric has the highest potential winnings to look forward to, as a 10-0 prop bet record will net him $48.64. Cory, meanwhile, can hope for $46.52 if it goes 10-0 the other way, pretty similar to the situation entering Super Bowl LV a year ago. From an odds standpoint, this is pretty even as Cory and Eric each have five betting favorites and five underdogs.
With that, we’re set for Super Bowl Sunday! We hope you enjoy the game as much as we do. Once the game ends, we’ll update our final standings for our confidence points contest.
Standings
SB LVI | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Points | 12 | 0 | 5 |
Record | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
Season | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Points^ | 1555 | 1568 | 1586 |
Record^ | 177-108 | 182-103 | 177-108 |
Lone Wolf | Evan | Eric | Cory |
Games | 23 | 16 | 29 |
Wins | 13 | 12 | 16 |
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-The Sportsballers (@Sportsballers18)